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xtruss · 8 months

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The EU Doesn’t Know How to Not Be a Vassal of the US Anymore

Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson has tried to show Americans how Washington has exploited Western Europe

— Bradley Blankenship | RT | August 22, 2023

(From L to R) US President Joe Biden, Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the G7 Leaders' Summit in Hiroshima on May 19, 2023 © Kenny Holston/POOL/AFP

Tucker Carlson, of Fox News fame, recently met with Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic in Budapest, Hungary. The journalist pointed out that the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline has put a serious strain on the European Union’s economy and mentioned that the world was “resetting” in reaction to the conflict in Ukraine and the West’s pledged support for Kiev.

Carlson raises some good issues, and an important one to expand upon is the fact that the EU economy is lagging significantly since the outbreak of the war last year. A June piece by the Financial Times titled ‘Europe has fallen behind America and the gap is growing’ details how the EU is now considerably dependent on the US for its technological, security, and economic needs.

In terms of hard numbers, Jeremy Shapiro and Jana Puglierin of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank have stated: “In 2008, the EU’s economy was somewhat larger than America’s: $16.2tn versus $14.7tn. By 2022, the US economy had grown to $25tn, whereas the EU and the UK together had only reached $19.8tn. America’s economy is now nearly one-third bigger. It is more than 50 per cent larger than the EU without the UK.”

The article goes on to describe a European Union that is dragging far behind the US and China in terms of quality universities, a less-than-pristine start-up environment, and lacking key benefits from its transatlantic peer – namely cheap energy. The Ukraine conflict has impacted the latter to the point that EU companies are paying three or four times what their American competitors are, with Washington being energy-independent and enjoying great domestic supplies. Meanwhile, energy from Russia is waning, European factories are closing in droves, and industry leaders are worried about the region’s future competitiveness.

The ECFR issued its own report on the matter in April, which is far blunter in describing the situation as a kind of “vassalization.” The summary of that report notes that the Ukraine war has exposed the EU’s key dependencies on the US, that over the course of a decade, the bloc has fallen behind the US in virtually every key metric, that it is deadlocked in disagreement and is looking to Washington for leadership.

The ECFR noted two causes for this situation. Firstly, despite the widely understood decline of the US compared to the rise of China, the transatlantic relationship has been unbalanced in Washington’s favor over the last 15 years since the 2008 financial crisis. The Biden administration is keen to exploit this and assert itself in the face of a disjointed Europe. Secondly, no one in the EU knows what greater strategic autonomy could look like – let alone agree on it if they did. There exists no process to decide the EU’s future in an autonomous way given the current status quo, which means US leadership is necessary.

This paints quite an interesting picture. Many commentators, including myself, have long documented the decline of the US and attributed it to a number of factors: less of an attractive environment for foreign direct investment (FDI), financial instability, corruption, and internal political turmoil. This is, of course, relativized to China, which has seen immense economic growth since the founding of the People’s Republic and particularly over the past four decades. But under the smoke screen of a fumbling America and a growing China, the EU has likewise fallen in stature.

The Western Establishment just gave itself a ‘World Peace and Liberty’ Award! Ursula von der Leyen received the ‘Judicial Equivalent’. The Western Establishment just gave itself a ‘World Peace and Liberty’ Award. Ursula von der Leyen received the ‘Judicial Equivalent of the Nobel Peace Prize’ from Justin Trudeau in a perfect self-congratulatory orgy

As for the two causes noted by the ECFR, they seem to be intertwined. Many of the key issues that have faced the EU, from migration to the banking crisis to Covid-19, have stemmed directly from the non-federal nature of the EU. And the current political crises are a result of Euroskepticism, i.e. a backlash against what is perceived as an overreach from Brussels by some political organizations within the bloc. The EU is a complicated and sometimes cumbersome bureaucracy that is cherished by some, reviled by others, and, under these assumptions, is an impediment to strategic autonomy.

The ECFR essentially argues for the EU and Western European capitals to lean into the transatlantic partnership, but on terms favorable to themselves. This includes creating an independent security architecture within and complimentary to NATO, creating an economic NATO of sorts and even pursuing a European nuclear weapons program. At least the former two are acceptable, as abandoning the US outright would be politically foolish for the EU at this juncture. It certainly needs to develop a transatlantic free-trade agreement that puts an end to American trade protectionism.

However, the obvious point to help diversify the Western European economic portfolio, reduce genuinely problematic dependencies, and fuel growth is for the EU to develop peer-to-peer relations with the Global South. For one, the EU Parliament could right now ratify the China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) to help their companies gain market access in China and tap into one of the world’s largest consumer bases. I would also argue, as I’ve done in the past, that the EU and China could cooperate – rather than compete – on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the Global South because of Europe’s historical connections, due to its colonialist past.

What is clear is that the EU needs to diversify and back off from the transatlantic relationship. With much talk about ‘de-risking’, or even ‘de-coupling’, from China, Western Europe has actually gotten into the position where it is strategically dependent on Washington to the point of being outright vassalized. This is a bleak situation for the EU’s growth model and its hopes for strategic autonomy.

— Bradley Blankenship is an American Journalist, Columnist and Political Commentator. He has a syndicated column at CGTN and is a freelance reporter for international news agencies.

#European Union 🇪🇺#United States 🇺🇸#Bradley Blankenship #Tucker Carlson #Western Europe #Serbia’s 🇷🇸 President Aleksandar Vucic | Budapest #Ukraine 🇺🇦#Financial Times #Jeremy Shapiro | Jana Puglierin #European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)#UK 🇬🇧#China 🇨🇳#Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)#Ursula von der Leyen #Euroskepticism #North Atlantic Terrorist Organization (NATO)#Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)#China-EU Comprehensive Agreement

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jovialbasementbouquetblr · 1 year

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2023: MSS Think Tank on "Effects of the Ukraine Crisis and Lessons Learned"

This overview from the PRC Ministry of State Security think tank — the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) — can provide insight into some Chinese perspectives on the Ukraine-Russia war and possibly on some of the less sensitive information passed up the line to its main customer, the PRC Foreign Affairs Leading Group. I found this article on aisixiang.com [and here…

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pressnewsagencyllc · 5 days

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Blinken heads back to China, with a threat over military aid to Russia

Reports have long circulated that China has been sending everything from vehicles to bullet-proof vests to Russia for use in its war against Ukraine, with the dual-use technology having both civilian and military applications. The official said that China’s support means that Moscow has “largely reconstituted its defense industrial base, which has an impact not just on the battlefield in Ukraine…

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niveditaabaidya · 1 year

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EU To Discuss China Relations In June Summit. #china #beijing #taiwan #j...

#youtube #EU To Discuss China Relations In June Summit. china beijing taiwan japan asia germany eu europe European Union leaders will discuss the blo

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hassibah · 6 months

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https://commons.com.ua/en/ukrayinskij-list-solidarnosti/

Ukrainian Letter of Solidarity with Palestinian people

"Our solidarity comes from a place of anger at the injustice, and a place of deep pain of knowing the devastating impacts of occupation, shelling of civil infrastructure, and humanitarian blockade from experiences in our homeland. Parts of Ukraine have been occupied since 2014, and the international community failed to stop Russian aggression then, ignoring the imperial and colonial nature of the armed violence, which consequently escalated on the 24th of February 2022. Civilians in Ukraine are shelled daily, in their homes, in hospitals, on bus stops, in queues for bread. As a result of the Russian occupation, thousands of people in Ukraine live without access to water, electricity or heating, and it is the most vulnerable groups that are mostly affected by the destruction of critical infrastructure. In the months of the siege and heavy bombardment of Mariupol there was no humanitarian corridor. Watching the Israeli targeting the civilian infrastructure in Gaza, the Israeli humanitarian blockade and occupation of land resonates especially painfully with us. From this place of pain of experience and solidarity, we call on our fellow Ukrainians globally and all the people to raise their voices in support of the Palestinian people and condemn the ongoing Israeli mass ethnic cleansing.

We reject the Ukrainian government statements that express unconditional support for Israel's military actions, and we consider the calls to avoid civilian casualties by Ukraine's MFA belated and insufficient. This position is a retreat from the support of Palestinian rights and condemnation of the Israeli occupation, which Ukraine has followed for decades, including voting in the UN. Aware of the pragmatic geopolitical reasoning behind Ukraine’s decision to echo Western allies, on whom we are dependent for our survival, we see the current support of Israel and dismissing Palestinian right to self-determination as contradictory to Ukraine’s own commitment to human rights and fight for our land and freedom. We as Ukrainians should stand in solidarity not with the oppressors, but with those who experience and resist the oppression.

We strongly object to equating of Western military aid to Ukraine and Israel by some politicians. Ukraine doesn't occupy the territories of other people, instead, it fights against the Russian occupation, and therefore international assistance serves a just cause and the protection of international law. Israel has occupied and annexed Palestinian and Syrian territories, and Western aid to it confirms an unjust order and demonstrates double standards in relation to international law.

We oppose the new wave of Islamophobia, such as the brutal murder of a Palestinian American 6-year old and assault on his family in Illinois, USA, and the equating of any criticism of Israel with anti-Semitism. At the same time, we also oppose holding all Jewish people all over the world accountable for the politics of the state of Israel and we condemn anti-Semitic violence, such as the mob attack on the airplane in Daghestan, Russia. We also reject the revival of the “war on terror” rhetoric used by the US and EU to justify war crimes and violations of international law that have undermined the international security system, caused countless deaths, and has been borrowed by other states, including Russia for the war in Chechnya and China for the Uyghur genocide. Now Israel is using it to carry out ethnic cleansing."

#ukraine #palestine #solidarity

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gwendolynlerman · 3 months

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MOOCs about China

I'm currently taking an introductory course about Chinese politics and society, and I thought of sharing the link because some of you might be interested. It was created by the University of Turku, Finland, which also organizes two others that might also be of interest:

Introduction to Chinese Popular Culture (available in the fall term)

Introduction to EU-China Relations (registration available from February 12)

#langblr #mandarin

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zvaigzdelasas · 6 months

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[BBC is UK State Media]

Taiwan is looking to make new friends - not just to trade with, but for support in powerful international bodies, in particular the European Union. Proof of one new friendship is easily visible in Taipei's supermarkets, which now sell something that is quite uncommon in Asia: Lithuanian-made India Pale Ale. Imports of the brew, along with Lithuanian rum and chocolate, have soared in Taiwan in the last few years, and Taipei has even announced a $10m investment in Lithuania in the most prized Taiwanese product - chips. Why young people in Taiwan are learning to fight Why Lithuania? Perhaps the most fertile ground for making new friends is in the young democracies of Eastern Europe, places that once fell under the control of Moscow, but are now part of Nato and the EU. During his speech to the national day crowds, the head of Taiwan's parliament warned of authoritarian regimes "rolling back freedom, from Ukraine to Hong Kong, Myanmar to Afghanistan".[...]

In 2021 Lithuania allowed Taipei to set up an office in Vilnius using the name "Taiwanese Representative Office in Lithuania". Beijing was apoplectic and sent Lithuania's ambassador to Beijing home. Further intimidation has followed. But the government in Vilnius has refused to back down. It has gone further, describing its relations with Taipei as a "strategic priority". "Lithuania is seeking to enhance practical co-operation with Taiwan, a like-minded democracy, and an important economic and technological partner in the region," it says. While the IPA on Taiwanese supermarket shelves may seem like a small thing, it is an indication of where Taiwan wants to go.

15 Oct 23

#they also mention georgia as potentially being a friend to taiwan bc russia #you mean the Georgia that signed on to belt and road?#& signed a strategic partnership like a couple months ago? that georgia?#'oh lithuanian famous for its IPAs' <- statements made by geopolitical opportunists #like put some gira there wtf

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ridenwithbiden · 2 months

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Here's Another Putin Puppet. Good Job #OHIO Voters

"MUNICH (AP) - A Republican opponent of new U.S. funding for Ukraine argued at an international security conference Sunday that the package stuck in Congress wouldn't “fundamentally change the reality” on the ground and that Russia has an incentive to negotiate peace.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and others have advocated passage of the $60 billion in aid at the Munich Security Conference, which coincided with Ukraine withdrawing troops from the eastern city of Avdiivka after months of intense combat.

But Sen. JD Vance, an Ohio Republican and ally of Donald Trump, said “the problem in Ukraine … is that there’s no clear end point" and that the U.S. doesn't make enough weapons to support wars in eastern Europe, the Middle East and “potentially a contingency in East Asia."

House Speaker Mike Johnson insists he won’t be “rushed” into approving the $95.3 billion foreign aid package from the Senate that includes the help for Ukraine, despite overwhelming support from most Democrats and almost half the Republicans.

If the package goes through, "that is not going to fundamentally change the reality on the battlefield,” Vance argued, pointing to limited American manufacturing capacity.

“Can we send the level of weaponry we’ve sent for the last 18 months?" he asked. "We simply cannot. No matter how many checks the U.S. Congress writes, we are limited there.”

“I think what’s reasonable to accomplish is some negotiated peace,” he said, arguing that Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the U.S. all have an incentive to come to the table now and that the two-year-old war will at some point end in a negotiated peace.

Ricarda Lang, a co-leader of one of Germany's governing parties, the Greens, responded that Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown repeatedly “that he has no interest in peace at the moment.”

Halting weapons supplies to Ukraine now would mean that "either you are prolonging the war or you give up Ukraine and Putin wins,” she said.

If Putin wins, "he, but also other forces like China, are going to learn that it’s possible to just change borders and that NATO is not going to hold it against us," Lang added. That would lead to “a world with less security, and … a world with less freedom for the EU but also for the U.S.”

Vance was part of a large group of U.S. lawmakers who attended the Munich conference. Several of his Senate colleagues met Zelenskyy on Saturday, but Vance did not join them.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Ben Cardin, a Maryland Democrat, posted on social network X after the meeting that Zelenskyy came to the conference “laser focused with a strong message for America: Ukraine needs your support & we’ll use it well.”

Republican senators have been deeply divided on Ukraine."

#Putin's Puppets #Ohio #US Senator

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hello-nichya-here · 6 months

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Genuine question: If the ppl of Brazil are anti-communism, why are they in BRICS with Russia and China, two communist countries?

1 - My God, this question single-handedly took back me back to my school years. Answering this lowkey makes me feel like I'm taking a test XD

2 - Russia has not been communist for over 30 years. Ya know. The USSR ended in 1991? It was kind of a big deal?

3 - China's government is a VERY weird combo of the worst of communism with the worst of capitalism. Obviously a lot about how the country works is a direct result of communism, but they have zero problem playing the capitalist game, and as a result EVERYONE has some kind of economical relation with China - they sell stuff the cheapest (thanks to slavery) and have literal billions of people foreigners can sell their stuff to. If selling/buying stuff with them made anyone communist, the whole world might as well be communist already.

4 - BRICS is not like the EU, or the USSR, or NATO. Brazil's opinions on anything that goes on with our "friends" doesn't matter because the point of it is not for us, Russia, India, China and South Africa to collectively decide anything about each other's politics (border control, currency, economic system, alliances in wartime, etc). It's literally just a group of nations that are struggling to remain/become relevant to the rest the world, while also trying not to go officially broke, that looked at each other and went "If you're about to crash and burn I'll try to help you out if I can, and then you do the same for me. Deal?" It's the possibility economic back up in case of crisis. The one thing we have to decide together is "Who gets to join this group of countries that are desperately trying to not implode?"

5 - Most brazilians are not really anti-communism because most brazilians don't fucking KNOW what communism is. A few might have heard names like Marx, Lenin, Stalin, Vladmir Putin, Mao or Fidel Castro, but they don't know shit about them. Lots of us know BRICS exists, but a ton cannot explain what it is. If you ask most brazilians to point to either China or Russia on a map, I'd say over half wouldn't be able to do it. And if you ask us to point to our own country on a map, a shockingly large number of people here will STILL not be able to do it because our educational system is that fucking bad.

You'll find LOTS of people, especially older generations, that think they understand what communism is, but in reality they were just fed the pro-USA propaganda those motherfuckers were spreading through all of latin america during the cold war by literally backing up dictatorships. And me acknowledging that fact and not calling the coup of 1964 "the revolution that was totally necessary and wanted by everybody and totally didn't lead to all kinds of violations of people's basic human rights" would already make half of my relatives yell at me to go to Cuba or Venezuela so I'll "stop" being a communist - because yes, saying "Dictatorship bad" is enough for them to label people communists.

Our president through 2019-2022, Jair Bolsonaro (I still HATE that dude's gut in case anyone is wondering) literally brought all of that old propaganda back to make people scared of the "communist threat inside Brazil" so he would get elected, and then tried to use that again to stage a coup after he lost to Lula in 2022.

Brazil is not "anti-communist." Brazil is a country filled with people that were never taught some pretty basic stuff about the world, and are thus easily manipulated by any politician.

#asks #brazil #brics #brasil

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sanguinosa-blog · 4 months

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The formation of the Palestinian state is a starting point.

On the 12th, the United Nations held an emergency special session and adopted a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. 153 countries, more than three-quarters, voted in favor, while 10 countries including the United States and Israel opposed, and 23 countries abstained. International backlash against the United States, supporting Israel and backing the massacre, is increasing.

◇ Israel is likely to lose support from the international community.

The genocide by the Israeli military against Palestinians has devastated the northern region, and the attacks have shifted to the southern region. Of the 2.2 million Gaza residents, 1.8 million evacuated according to the Israeli military's "evacuate to the south" instructions, but now those evacuation locations are under attack, with hundreds of locations being bombed daily.

On the 13th of this month, the Gaza Health Ministry announced that the death toll since the start of the fighting on October 7th was 18,412, and the number of injured was over 50,000. The Israeli military began a "water siege" operation on the 12th, pouring seawater into underground tunnels to kill Hamas leaders, and the brutality of the Israeli military is going beyond the norm.

Even US President Biden, who vetoed the resolution calling for a ceasefire at the UN Security Council on the 8th and defended the Gaza massacre as an exercise of self-defense, criticized, saying, "The Netanyahu government must change."

◇ The "two-state solution" proposal is being discussed once again.

In 1947, a year before the end of the British Mandate for Palestine, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution dividing the region into two states, one for Jews and one for Arabs. However, in 1948, after Israel declared independence, five Arab League countries declared war, leading to the First Arab-Israeli War. As a result, Israel won and established a state, and many Palestinians were expelled as refugees.

The Labor Party once pointed out, "If the Arabs had accepted the 'Palestine' state proposal at that time, the history of Palestine might have been different. The subsequent struggle between Arabs and Jews in the Palestinian region has become barren, grim, and a quagmire with no prospect of resolution until now" ('Kaitsubame' No. 1157, October 2, 2011).

Amidst such circumstances, the international momentum for the "two-state solution" has increased since the shock of the October 7th military attack and Israel's Gaza offensive. Wang Yi, a member of the Central Political Bureau of the Chinese Communist Party, who was previously passive about the Palestinian issue, stated after the UN Security Council meeting on November 19th, "The 'two-state solution' is the only way to solve the Palestinian issue," and proposed the early convening of a large-scale international peace conference with authority and effectiveness (China declared its participation in the power struggle in the Middle East under the pretext of promoting peace). On November 27th, the "two-state solution" was agreed upon at the Arab-EU Foreign Ministers' meeting.

The international momentum for the "two-state solution" that has grown in the wake of the October 7th attack has led to proposals from various countries, including China, the United States, and bourgeois nations, to create an international institution or something similar for the formation of the Palestinian state, and there is no objection to the active participation of Palestinians. "Two-state solution is impossible," says the one-state solution advocate (Iran, Pape). "Reconstruction of relations under the principles of correct democracy" and "Victory in the liberation struggle means creating a democratic state that includes all the people living in that land" ('Ten Myths About Israel'). Israel has begun a war of aggression to oppress and control Palestine. Beautifying democracy is nothing more than following bourgeois states.

◇ Israel and the United States, refusing peace, must take responsibility!

"(The Netanyahu government) does not want anything like approaching the 'two-state solution'" (Biden), and the Netanyahu government has consistently taken a position of refusal. However, support for Netanyahu in Israel is low (28% on November 11th), and he is instigating a war for war, even encouraging the war for the destruction of Hamas, to maintain power. The Israeli military announced that it would take several months to destroy Hamas.

One of the factors that made the resolution of the Palestinian issue difficult was the "Vision for Peace" proposed by Trump in 2020, which advocated a "realistic two-state solution." Based on the current situation (Israel occupying 61% of the total and only 39% of the area under Palestinian autonomy, which is also fragmented), the proposal suggested a "two-state solution" for the benefit of Israel. Taking advantage of the proposal, Netanyahu has expanded settlements in the occupied West Bank, suppressed Palestinians, and under the protection of the Netanyahu government, 700,000 people have been advancing the Israelization of Palestine in 150 settlements, violating Israel's domestic law.

The U.S. has supported Israel economically and militarily as the frontline against the Arabs. Israel does not allow less than 39% of the Palestinian Autonomous Region to be under the control of the autonomous government, and it controls everything, including infrastructure, economy, and movement. The U.S. has nurtured and assisted Israel in becoming a militaristic state that oppresses and dominates Palestine.

If the United States seriously considers the "two-state solution," it must immediately stop military support for Israel and withdraw Israeli troops and Jewish settlers from the West Bank Autonomous Region. Only when the United States refrains from exercising its veto power at the Security Council and takes the first step toward "sanctions" against Israel, will the construction of the Palestinian state make significant progress.

The Netanyahu government, which justifies the extermination of Palestinians for "its own security," is trying to turn Gaza into "Auschwitz." The accomplice United States must take responsibility for Netanyahu's "great crime."

◇The formation of the Palestinian state is the starting point of the workers' struggle.

The misfortune of Palestine lies in the corrupt Abbas government of the autonomous region, which manipulates aid to various countries for its own benefit, and has become a corrupt regime tainted with corruption and decadence (demand for Abbas's resignation was 75% in a December 20 survey). The political opposition to this has been represented by the struggle of religious political organizations, such as the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), rooted in the teachings of Islam. The urgent task for the people of Palestine is the construction of a Marxist political organization that fundamentally criticizes the ideological positions of nationalism and Islamic movements.

For the workers, the "two-state solution" is neither the goal nor the endpoint but the starting point of the struggle. With the formation of a democratic state in Palestine as a starting point, the working class of Palestine, within the framework of the "nation-state," initiates a struggle to elevate themselves to the ruling class—namely, the struggle of the working class, with the liberation of labor as its objective, begins.

The formation of the Palestinian state will bring conditions for the Palestinian workers and Israeli workers to overthrow their respective governments based on a common position of internationalism and to unite in solidarity for the liberation of labor.

The task for the Israeli working class, which has undergone capitalist development, is the overthrow of capital's dominance and the liberation of labor. This struggle is also a fight to overthrow the Netanyahu government, which oppresses and economically usurps Palestine, and its coalition with religious Zionism and extreme right-wing parties advocating Jewish supremacism.

The fusion of Israeli and Arab workers will be realized within the context of the workers' world revolution that transcends "ethnicity" and the nation-state.

Workers Party aiming for the liberation of labor. from ”Umitsubame” No.1465 24/12/2023 https://www.facebook.com/SappDasKapital/posts/pfbid02UvDADEeDtMF8N4o97AY1yRcX15xR7qx65Apz5cxpvxdmkUVdDF646mejWWeduFT3l

#save palestine #free palestine #socialism #marxism #Workers Party #Umitsubame #anti capitalism #communism

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mariacallous · 1 year

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As Russia ramps up its second offensive, a debate has erupted over whether Moscow or Kyiv will have the upper hand in 2023. While important, such discourse also misses a larger point related to the conflict’s longer-term consequences. In the long run, the true loser of the war is already clear; Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will be remembered as a historic folly that left Russia economically, demographically, and geopolitically worse off.

Start with the lynchpin of Russia’s economy: energy. In contrast to Europe’s (very real) dependence on Russia for fossil fuels, Russia’s economic dependence on Europe has largely gone unremarked upon. As late as 2021, for example, Russia exported 32 percent of its coal, 49 percent of its oil, and a staggering 74 percent of its gas to OECD Europe alone. Add in Japan, South Korea, and non-OECD European countries that have joined Western sanctions against Russia, and the figure is even higher. A trickle of Russian energy continues to flow into Europe, but as the European Union makes good on its commitment to phase out Russian oil and gas, Moscow may soon find itself shut out of its most lucrative export market.

In a petrostate like Russia that derives 45 percent of its federal budget from fossil fuels, the impact of this market isolation is hard to overstate. Oil and coal exports are fungible, and Moscow has indeed been able to redirect them to countries such as India and China (albeit at discounted rates, higher costs, and lower profits). Gas, however, is much harder to reroute because of the infrastructure needed to transport it. With its $400 billion gas pipeline to China, Russia has managed some progress on this front, but it will take years to match current capacity to the EU. In any case, China’s leverage as a single buyer makes it a poor substitute for Europe, where Russia can bid countries against one another.

This market isolation, however, would be survivable were it not for the gravest unintended consequence of Russia’s war—an accelerated transition toward decarbonization. It took a gross violation of international law, but Putin managed to convince Western leaders to finally treat independence from fossil fuels as a national security issue and not just an environmental one.

This is best seen in Europe’s turbocharged transition toward renewable energy, where permitting processes that used to take years are being pushed up. A few months after the invasion, for example, Germany jump-started construction on what will soon be Europe’s largest solar plant. Around the same time, Britain accelerated progress on Hornsea 3, slated to become the world’s largest offshore wind farm upon completion. The results already speak for themselves; for the first time ever last year, wind and solar combined for a higher share of electrical generation in Europe than oil and gas. And this says nothing of other decarbonization efforts such as subsidies for heat pumps in the EU, incentives for clean energy in the United States, and higher electric vehicle uptake everywhere.

The cumulative effect for Russia could not be worse. Sooner or later, lower demand for fossil fuels will dramatically and permanently lower the price for oil and gas—an existential threat to Russia’s economy. When increased U.S. shale production depressed oil prices in 2014, for example, Russia experienced a financial crisis. Lower global demand for fossil fuels will play out over a longer timeline, but the result for Russia will be much graver. With its invasion, Russia hastened the arrival of an energy transition that promises to unravel its economy.

Beyond a smaller and less efficient economy, Putin’s war in Ukraine will also leave Russia with a smaller and less dynamic population. Russia’s demographic problems are well-documented, and Putin had intended to start reversing the country’s long-running population decline in 2022. In a morbid twist, the year is likelier to mark the start of its irrevocable fall. The confluence of COVID and an inverted demographic pyramid already made Russia’s demographic outlook dire. The addition of war has made it catastrophic.

To understand why, it’s important to understand the demographic scar left by the 1990s. In the chaos that followed the Soviet Union’s dissolution, Russia’s birthrate plunged to 1.2 children per woman, far below the 2.1 needed for a population to remain stable. The effects can still be seen today; while there are 12 million Russians aged 30-34 (born just before the breakup of the Soviet Union), there are just 7 million aged 20-24 (born during the chaos that followed it). That deficit meant Russia’s population was already poised to fall, simply because a smaller number of people would be able to have children in the first place.

Russia’s invasion has made this bad demographic hand cataclysmic. At least 120,000 Russian soldiers have died so far—many in their 20s and from the same small generation Russia can scarcely afford to lose. Many more have emigrated, if they can, or simply fled to other countries to try to wait out the war; exact numbers are hard to calculate, but the 32,000 Russians who have immigrated to Israel alone suggest the total number approaches a million.

Disastrously, the planning horizons of Russian families have been upended; it is projected that fewer than 1.2 million Russian babies may be born next year, , which would leave Russia with its lowest birthrate since 2000. A spike in violent crime, a rise in alcohol consumption, and other factors that collude against a family’s decision to have children may depress the birthrate further still. Ironically, over the last decade Putin managed to slow (if not reverse) Russia’s population decline through lavish payoffs for new mothers. Increased military spending and the debt needed to finance it will make such generous natalist policies harder.

The invasion has left Russia even worse off geopolitically. Unlike hard numbers and demographic data, such lost influence is hard to measure. But it can be seen everywhere, from public opinion polls across the West to United Nations votes that the Kremlin has lost by margins as high as 141 to 5. It can also be seen in Russia’s own backyard; while an emboldened NATO could soon include Sweden and Finland, Russia’s own Collective Security Treaty Organization is tearing at the seams as traditional allies such as Kazakhstan and Armenia realize the Kremlin’s impotence and look to China for security.

Perhaps most important of all, Russia has reinvigorated the cause of liberal democracy. In the year after its invasion, French President Emmanuel Macron won a rare second term in France, the far-right AfD lost ground in three successive elections in Germany, and “Make America Great Again” Republicans paid an electoral penalty in the U.S. midterms. (The far right did sweep into power in both Sweden and Italy, but such wins have so far failed to dent Western unity and appear more motivated by immigration.) And this says nothing of the wave of democratic consolidation playing out across Eastern Europe, where voters have thrown out illiberal populists in Slovenia and Czechia in the last year alone. It is impossible to attribute any of these outcomes to just one factor (U.S. Democrats also got a boost from the overturn of Roe v. Wade and election denialism, for example), but Russia’s invasion—and the clear choice between liberalism and autocracy it presented—no doubt helped.

Nowhere, however, has Russia’s invasion backfired more than in Ukraine. Contrary to Putin’s historical revisionism, Ukraine has long had a national identity distinct from Russia’s. But it’s also long been fractured along linguistic lines, with many of its elites intent on maintaining close relations with the Kremlin and even the public unsure about greater alignment with the West.

No longer. Ninety-one percent of Ukrainians now favor joining NATO, a figure unthinkable just a decade ago. Eighty-five percent of Ukrainians consider themselves Ukrainian above all else, a marker of civic identity that has grown by double digits since Russia’s invasion. Far from protecting the Russian language in Ukraine, Putin appears to have hastened its demise as native Russian speakers (Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky included) switch to Ukrainian en masse. Putin launched his invasion to bring Ukraine back into Moscow’s orbit. He has instead anchored its future in the West.

Of course, one can argue that, however much the war has cost Russia, it has cost Ukraine exponentially more. This is true. Ukraine’s economy shrank by more than 30 percent last year, while Russia’s economy contracted by just about 3 percent. And this says nothing of the human toll Ukraine has suffered. But, like Brexit, Western sanctions on Russia will play out as a slow burn, not an immediate collapse. And while Russia enters a protracted period of economic and demographic decline, once peace comes, Ukraine will have the combined industrial capacity of the EU, United States, and United Kingdom to support it as the West’s newest institutional member—precisely the outcome Putin hoped to avoid. Russia may yet make new territorial gains in the Donbas. But in the long run, such gains are immaterial—Russia has already lost.

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brandtner · 8 months

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Hi Bruzi!! I loved your post about kosovo and his relationships and I was wondering if you would be willing to do something simmilar with srpska??

Hello yaox :D Thanks, it's really fun to apply my knowledge of their politics/history to the creation of these headcanons.

ILIJA:

It is hard to describe what kind of "stupid" Ilija really is. But I think this (REAL) event from 1991 explains it really well: First day the war begins, he kidnaps Bosnia's boss at the airport, because he gets too excited to fight his first war ever. Then EU people come, surround him, and he simply lets him go… no ransom or whatever… just… jesus christ

Snorts cedevita

Blind patriot who will probably grow out of it. His strong "politically incorrect" beliefs are a revolt against his parents. He tends to over do it and be against literally anything that his parents stand for. Something like:

Enis: These grapes are so good. I love grapes. Ilija: I will sacrifice my entire life in order to destroy every grape plant on this planet.

Hates his parents, but Idriza is definitely not as bad as Enis. Enis doesn't even know how old is he, but he still tries.

He hits his dad. His dad beats him back with a belt or with a slipper.

"Independence? Yeah you know I may not be on the map but structure-wise I'm basically a real country. I have these two big trading partners, too. No, not like China or Germany, I trade CS go skins."

He hasn't got a lot of friends. He pushes normal people away with his obsessions - one for warfare, other one for Serbia.

I wouldn't say he is as nationalistic to push away any Bosniak friends. But when I look at their politics… He might. (The life of a nationalist is bound to contain some level of isolation. Problems of closed social circles: one can be safe in them, but then terribly sensitive to the open world)

Has shown his Minecraft world to Idriza. It was titled "Markale 1994". Since then Idriza has stopped taking interest in Ilija's free time.

Has successfully nicked hand grenades from his dad many times before. He keeps them under his bed "for emergencies".

There is a strict firearm, fireworks, explosive or ANYTHING that makes an explosive sound/may harm someone/may scare someone prohibition for him. The clerks don't sell none of these to him in request of Enis.

Especially BANG SNAPS. He keeps getting them from somewhere and startling his parents all the time. Enis searches him and his room repeatedly but never finds anything.

All his neighbours have been warned to NEVER give him any fireworks.

Also those mini dynamite sticks (noisemaker firework) you light up and throw at someone. (I used both of these back in the day they were awesome)

If you've seen Trailer park boys: remember when Trinity gets addicted to cigarettes because her dad smokes next to her so often? Then she gets caught smoking cigs, at like, 9 years old. Ricky (her dad) then decides to quit smoking with her and they wear the nicotine patches together and stuff and it's just so cute and definitely a thing that would happen with Enis and Ilija.

Nicotine HC: Idriza HATES the nicotine smell. Ilija is 16, he is allowed to smoke, but he doesn't - just because Enis does and he doesn't want to be like him.

RELATIONS

Literally no one in the whole world has ever heard of him or know who he is, but he thinks everyone does know him and that they think he is "cool and badass".

He loves Russia but Russia treats him like a flea (he has no idea who he is).

Serbia tries to lie himself into thinking Srpska is just a product of Alcohol Withdrawal Delirium. Srpska is not real and only appears when he has been sober for too long.

Herzegovina cares for him (as in feeds, dresses) but is otherwise cold and bland to him. Enis balances that out, bringing some fatherly fun in, some sleaze.

MORE HCs:

Most definitely a seljacina (villager mindset). There is no way he can compete with the level of Belgrade for example, he embarrasses himself often.

Probably a jannie on 4chan

I know everyone despises Srpska and thinks he is an idiot, but I think every self-respecting yugotalia fan should always remember that it was none other than HIS army that accomplished the longest siege of a capital city in the history of modern warfare.

So when he might be really flawed, he has a lot of potential when he puts his mind into it. He has "ancient warrior" in his genes. It's just that his environment doesn't let him to fully flourish.

He was surprisingly cool back in the day, for example during Ottoman Empire and AHE, he had important strategic hubs and a couple of military fortifications (of same importance).

Keep in mind his capital is the 2nd largest city in Bosnia, not Herzegovina's.

Under his moron facade he is actually capable of achieving great things, proving he takes some great traits after his real dad. Unfortunately, though, bad traits tend to dominate over them...

Has met Osama bin Laden. (unironically, Bosnia's boss was friends with him)

Whenever he gets in a fight with Enis he whips out that fact, or just shouts random, made-up things and presumptions containing words like mujahideen or jihadist.

90s war HCs? It's a very important topic for the existence of Srpska, but I'm not sure anyone is interested in that kind of thing so I will leave it be.

(srpska is so relatable)

#asks #yugotalia #yugotalia srpska

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pressnewsagencyllc · 28 days

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UK, Czech ministers among China’s hacking targets

Among the targets of the attacks: British Minister for Europe Nusrat Ghani, an IPAC member at the time of the attacks who was appointed in his role as minister on Tuesday, and Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský, also a member of the group. “This just proves the assessment in our Security Strategy, which states that the rising assertiveness of China is a systemic challenge that needs to be dealt…

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#British politics #China #Cyber diplomacy #Cyber Espionage #cybercrime #Czech politics #Czech Republic #espionage #EU-China relations #European politics #hackers #human rights #intelligence #Malware #Nusrat Ghani #sanctions #security #UK #United Kingdom

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beardedmrbean · 6 months

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Taiwan is seeking to open a representative office in the Estonian capital of Tallinn, drawing the ire of China, whose ambassador has threatened to withdraw from the Baltic country if the plan goes through.

Guo Xiaomei, the Chinese envoy, delivered the warning during a meeting with the chairman of the Estonia-China parliamentary group, Toomas Kivimagi.

China says the office would be a breach of its "one China" policy, which requires countries it has relations with to acknowledge that the People's Republic of China, and not Taiwan, is the legal representative of "China." Beijing also claims sovereignty over Taiwan, although the Chinese Communist Party government has never ruled there.

"We firmly oppose any form of official interaction between the Taiwan region and countries having diplomatic ties with China and oppose any action supporting Taiwan independence separatist forces," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at Wednesday's regular press conference.

However, leaders in the country of 1.3 million people say the office, with functions limited to economic and cultural services—not diplomatic ones—does not violate its commitments to China. It would also reportedly be opened in the name of "Taipei" rather than "Taiwan"—which is considered less controversial.

"Estonia does not recognize Taiwan as a state. As part of the 'One China Policy,' we are not developing political relations with Taiwan," Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in a statement shared with Newsweek.

"At the same time, we consider it important to boost relations in domains such as the economy, education, culture, relations between NGOs, and other similar fields. We also support Taiwan's participation in international life in areas of global importance, such as the fight against pandemics and Taiwan's attendance at the World Health Assembly," he added.

Due to Chinese pressure, Taiwan has not in recent years been allowed to join meetings of the World Health Organization's decision-making body, even as an observer.

Although the country values "a constructive relationship with Beijing," Tsahkna said it's also important to safeguard national values like democracy and human rights.

Estonia and Taiwan have "affirmed establishing an office is of great significance to strengthening bilateral exchanges, but we have not yet reached a consensus," Taiwanese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Jeff Liu told Newsweek on Thursday.

Liu said he had no comment on the China's relationship with Estonia.

Estonia isn't the first Baltic country to draw China's ire over a Taiwan office. After Lithuania allowed Taiwan to open one in 2021, Beijing hit the country with tariffs, including secondary sanctions on companies from third countries, like Germany, that sourced Lithuanian parts for their products.

The move didn't have the desired effect. Lithuania had limited exposure to the Chinese economy due to a relatively low amount of bilateral trade.

In addition, the European Union rallied around its member. The 27-country bloc accused China of "coercion" and asked the World Trade Organization to intervene.

"Lithuania's decision to turn to Taiwan, away from China, set a precedent for its Baltic neighbors facing similar threats from China—and Russia. But the EU's response to Beijing's coercion against Lithuania also set a precedent for joint EU-level response to coercion, sending a message to Beijing that the bloc is ready to protect the interests of its member states against external pressure," Zsuzsa Ferenczy, a former political adviser to the European Parliament and an associate researcher for Belgian university Vrije Universiteit Brussel, told Newsweek.

Ferenczy said this resolve has only been strengthened in light of the support China has shown for Russia's invasion of Ukraine and that it's not in Beijing's interests to once again take serious action against an EU member on this issue.

"While Beijing will protest against any embrace of Taiwan, it has also been trying to rebuild the damage its coercion against Lithuania has done to EU-China ties. Beijing's response will tell whether it has learned from the lesson," she said.

When China issued its warning to Estonia, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu was in the country as part of a six-day tour of the Baltic states.

"We may be small, but a strong bond of democracies can make us mightier than we could ever imagine," Wu proclaimed in a speech in Tallinn on Wednesday.

#nunyas news

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tomorrowusa · 1 year

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The EU is considering whether it is a good idea to be the friend of a friend of a war criminal.

'Pandora’s box': EU weighs changing relations with China

If Xi Jinping chooses to "befriend a war criminal, it is our duty to get very serious about China," Lithuania's foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, told DW when asked what he thought about the Chinese president's three-day visit to Moscow and his meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

The International Criminal Court issued a warrant for Putin late last week, accusing him of war crimes.

The only way forward for the European Union now, Landsbergis said, is to take "first steps on de-risking and eventual decoupling from China. The sooner we start, the better for the union."

[ ... ]

China has been supporting Russia's war efforts, however, in several indirect ways. This includes the ramping up of economic exchanges and exports of dual-use equipment, said Grzegorz Stec, an analyst at the Brussels office of the Mercator Institute for China Studies, a German foundation.

Among the equipment exports are "tires, trucks, clothing and other goods that can be used by the Russian military, although those are not specifically weapons," he told DW.

If the West were to find tangible proof of China providing large-scale military equipment to Russia, Stec pointed out, that would be "a red line" for the Europeans. But he recommended taking a cautious approach before accusing China of supplying weapons to Russia, given the magnitude of the potential geopolitical implications.

The perceived Chinese tilt towards Russia has not done it much good in Europe.

Regardless of this reluctance, Europe's attitude towards China is more skeptical than it has been in decades, said Reinhard Bütikofer, chair of the European Parliament's China delegation.

"The Chinese haven't been very successful in dealing with the Europeans lately," he told DW. "I would say they have squandered a lot of the political capital that they used to have."

[ ... ]

"The Chinese are trying to balance two incompatible goals. Being best buddies with Putin and being good friends of the Europeans at the same time," Bütikofer said. He made clear he doesn't think they can achieve both."As Abraham Lincoln said, you can fool some of the people all of the time or all the people some of the time. But you cannot fool all the people all the time." In concrete political terms, he explained, this meant that they would "fail if they insist on their no-limits friendship with the Russians."

In 1949, as he was laying the groundwork for the establishment of The People’s Republic of China, Chairman Mao Zedong declared, "The Chinese people have stood up!" The brutal invasion of Ukraine has finally made Europe stand up to Russia’s neocolonialist revanchism.

China will do better if it understands that a significant shift in thinking has taken place in Europe. The days of playing footsie with Putin and of accommodating Russian oligarchs in European democracies are gone.

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zvaigzdelasas · 9 months

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China’s global infrastructure strategy stood out as a main talking point in his meetings with Guyanese President Irfaan Ali and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili on Friday and his Indonesian counterpart Joko Widodo on Thursday.[...]

Xi told Garibashvili that China was ready to push forward with building the belt and road with Georgia. He added that Beijing welcomed more exports from the country and encouraged more Chinese companies to invest there.

Xi said the two countries were set to announce that bilateral relations would be upgraded to a “strategic partnership” during Garibashvili’s trip to China, according to state news agency Xinhua. China and Georgia ratified a free-trade agreement in 2017 – Beijing’s first with a former Soviet state. Georgia applied for EU membership last year and has launched a bid to join Nato. In the meeting with his Guyanese counterpart, Xi said Beijing was willing to further align the belt and road strategy and the South American nation’s low-carbon development strategy.[...]

China signed belt and road cooperation agreements with Georgia in 2015 and Guyana in 2018.[...]

In the meeting with Widodo, Xi hailed the two “like-minded” Asian neighbours, which had made “major achievements” in aligning Beijing’s belt and road plan and Jakarta’s global maritime axis, a strategy to develop port infrastructure and strengthen maritime security.

Indonesia was where Xi launched the idea of the “21st century Maritime Silk Road” a decade ago, one of the two major pillars of the belt and road.

Widodo said that the high-speed railway linking Jakarta and Bandung – a cornerstone project of the belt and road – would come into operation on schedule next month. [...]

Xi also met and discussed the belt and road with Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Cheikh Ghazouani and Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye on Friday. China and Mauritania signed a cooperation plan to jointly promote building the belt and road on Friday.[...]

Beijing announced on Monday that Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka would also attend the opening ceremony, but he later had to cancel the visit to China after falling and hurting his head.

28 Jul 23

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