#psychohistory

[evilhorse]

Yes, really! I read! I like sci-fi stories! I’m a total catch!

(Fantastic Four #14)

#fantastic four #mr fantastic #reed richards #the invisible woman #susan richards #the human torch #johnny storm #the thing #ben grimm #Alicia masters #isaac asimov #psychohistory #huh #a total catch #the world’s greatest comic magazine #ryan north #ivan fiorelli #marvel comics #comics #2020s comics

[racefortheironthrone]

Are you familiar with Peter Turchin’s work and if so, what are your thoughts? Is he considered a serious historian?

After researching this guy’s bio for a bit, I can say that he’s not a historian - his PhD seems to be in Zoology - and this whole cliodynamics business seems to be a discipline that he invented in a brazen act of academic columbusing/academic imperialism. Historians do not consider him a serious historian, and nor do I.

The problem with Turchin’s entire academic project is twofold: first, there is not enough data to do the kind of precision mathematical modeling that he purports to do. When it comes to pre-modern history, there are huge swathes of time and space and human experience for which we do not have records, either because the records didn’t survive to the present, literacy rates weren’t high enough to produce the desired types and levels of records, or the literate classes simply didn’t consider worthy of being written down. When it comes to modern history, things are a bit better because modern societies tend to produce written records at an incomprehensible volume, but here the problem is that the sheer mass of records plus certain specialized problems in library sciences that are too complicated to go into in this post (but I’ll explain if someone asks me) means that only a tiny fraction of these records are digitized, let alone digitized in a way that they can then be put into a database and modeled upon. As my old professor Eric Foner put it during new major orientation: “the difference between ancient history and modern history is that in ancient history you know all your sources but there aren’t any, and in modern history there are tons of sources but you don’t know them.”

Second, even if there was enough data, trying to accurately and meaningfully model all of human history is a futile endeavor. This is something that we discuss in introductory theory courses - the complex interplay of historical forces and individual agency/contingency, the literally infinite number of factors that influence human society and behavior, and so on. The historiography of ideas is littered with failed attempts to construct total theories of history - the Hegelians, the Marxists, the objectivists (which isn’t the same thing as Randian Objectivism, it’s complicated and I’ll explain in another post if anyone really wants to know), huge swathes of sociology but especially the structuralists, significant swathes of political science and psychology, and oh my god so many economists. It’s pretty much a cliche at this point for social scientists to say they were inspired to become social scientists by childhood dreams of becoming a psychohistorian like Hari Seldon. The problem is that psychohistory is science fiction, it’s not real, and it can’t be real because humans are too damn complex and contradictory. It is a massive red flag that Turchin has explicitly compared cliodynamics to psychohistory; it’s like when some Silicon Valley disruptor starts talking about how their latest project was inspired by their favorite sci-fi series.

So yeah, this guy seems like a total quack.

#history #theory #theory of history #historiography #quackery #psychohistory #academia #academic columbusing #history of ideas

[somebirdortheother]

excuse me, do you have a moment to talk about our lord and saviour predictive modelling and individuals

(also, will you appear at my house if I look into the mirror and say "math" three times? because that would be awesome)

Hello hello,

Dr. Birdy here to talk about predictive modelling. This topic is inspired by Foundation's Hari Seldon and Gaal Dornick and Hari's Big Fat ModelTM.

I've made posts on Tumblr on Hari Seldon's model before, and a more in-depth one on Medium, however even that post did not begin to scratch the surface of how a model like that could predict the behaviour of individuals. Or couldn't!

I have previously posited that Hari Seldon's model would likely be a differential equation model, but I've kept it deterministic and not stochastic (probabilistic) for simplicity.

Let's add probabilities to the model!

Instead of having fixed functions to describe the rate of change of various aspects of the empire, we would include probabilistic elements that capture uncertainty or randomness.

As an example, we could take a single model component like "population change". Incorporating stochastic elements would make it something like this:

FP​(P,T,E,ξ)=b(T,E)⋅P���d(T,E)⋅P+m(T,E)+ξ

Where ξ is a random variable that captures the inherent unpredictability or randomness in population changes. The random variable could follow a specific distribution, such as a Gaussian distribution, to model the "noise" or uncertainty. Similarly, the functions for technological level and economic prosperity could also include random variables to account for stochastic elements. The state vector P(t) would then be the solution to a set of stochastic differential equations, and its elements would be random variables themselves, representing probability distributions over possible states of the empire at any given time t.

What about the individuals?

While psychohistory is an imaginary discipline, a lot of it is in line with how large-scale models that rely on aggregate data work in reality. It's based on the principle that while individual behaviour is unpredictable, the behaviour of large groups can be statistically reliable.

In Asimov's Foundation series, Hari Seldon's psychohistory explicitly states that it cannot predict individual actions, only the outcomes of large collective actions. Seldon's model relies on the law of large numbers, which holds that as the size of a sample drawn from a population increases, the estimate of the population mean will become more accurate.

In real-world applications, similar large-scale models like macroeconomic models or epidemiological models also focus on aggregate behaviour rather than individual actions. There are models in economics and psychology that attempt to predict individual choices, but these typically operate on a much smaller scale and often involve a lot of uncertainty.

If one were to attempt to model individual behaviour, that would require incorporating a lot more variables, accounting for numerous interactions, and potentially dealing with elements of randomness or even free will, making the model extremely complex and likely unreliable.

So, while it's theoretically conceivable to create a highly complex model that tries to predict individual decisions, it's far from practical with our current understanding and computational capabilities.

P.S., I guess we won't know what happens whether I will appear if you look in the mirror and say "math" three times until you try :)

#somebirdortheother math #foundation math #hari seldon #gaal dornick #psychohistory #predictive modelling #foundation #foundation apple tv

[just-late-roman-republic-things]

Bro. Bro I am so fucking stoked for this. I have a degree in psychology and am ready to put it to the geekiest use possible!

The “impressive neo-Freudian contributions” bit makes me a bit wary, since that could mean just about anything, but let’s see what they’re trying to say first.

(Also, this has nothing to do with psychohistory from Isaac Asimov’s Foundation novels.)

#jlrrt reads #thomas africa #the mask of an assassin #marcus brutus #psychology #psychohistory #jlrrt speaks

[sag-dab-sar]

TIL .... about the psychogenic modes of child rearing that basically says people, especially mothers, didn't value and help children until the mid-20th century. And just.... ? (Oh but hunter gathers, Rome, Greece, and China are exempt from the model for vague reasons). It was created by Lloyd DeMause a person with a bachelor's in political science and training in psychoanalysis. Culminating in the "field" of psychohistory. I honestly wish psychoanalysis would fall off the face of this planet. Disinformation and misinformation about history being spread in books always leads back to a Jungian Analyst. And psychoanalysis is IMO extremely European-centric. Especially "archetypes". I just hate it, and this "modes of child rearing" shit that casts all humans (except the listed exceptions) as evil towards their children until ✨modern civilization✨ and the "helping phase"; has made my hatred of this "field" even stronger.

#psychoanalysis #psychoanalyst #psychohistory #what the fuck #history #really random thoughts #because the concept of that made me just angry #jungian analyst #letsdebunk

[j-august]

Q. Is it not obvious to anyone that the Empire is as strong as it ever was?

A. The appearance of strength is all about you. It would seem to last for ever. However, Mr Advocate, the rotten tree-trunk, until the very moment when the stormblast breaks it in two, has all the appearance of might that it ever had. The stormblast whistles through the branches of the Empire even now. Listen with the ears of psychohistory, and you will hear the creaking.

Isaac Asimov, Foundation

#quote #quotation #Isaac Asimov #Foundation #empire #strength #rot #psychohistory #Asimov: psychologists are infallible scientists! prophets! priests! GODS! #actual psychologists: p-hacking data squeezed out of 30 WEIRD students that's never going to replicate #sorry sorry sorry #also amused to note psychohistory involves no actual history or historians

[iammannyj]

How Exciting: Foundation Season 3 Returns Exclusively on Apple TV+

Guess what? Foundation is back for Season 3 on Apple TV+! I’ve been hooked on this science fiction masterpiece (well, from my perspective for now), soaking in the incredible mix of storytelling, political twists, action, and suspenseful intrigue. The second season left me craving more, especially with the promise of uncharted psychohistory territory and the enigmatic figure of The Mule. I’m…

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#action #Android to Apple switch #Apple celebration #Apple TV #Apple TV+ exclusive #cosmic journey #Foundation Season 3 #Foundation universe #intrigue #political twists #psychohistory #sci-fi #sci-fi masterpiece #Season 3 excitement #storytelling #suspense #The Mule #tv series

[paullev]

#foundation season 2 #isaac asimov #hari seldon #david goyer #psychohistory #bel riose

[kkgore]

Just watched a new YouTube channel vid for some book recommendations. Was going fine, bit of a flag that they raved about Ender's Game without acknowledging Orson Scott Cards homophobia but not every review has to I suppose, but then we got to Foundation. And she said, and I quote, "what blew my mind about this book is the idea that one person's decisions can change an entire culture and the course of history" and... I was upset. Hari Seldon did not invent the mathematical equations of psychohistory and predict events to 98% certainty to be slandered like this!

#book reviews #foundation #asimov #hari seldon #psychohistory #sci fi #writeblr #creative writing #writing #fiction writing #writer community #writer things

[wheredidfranciscogo]

Foundation

I just finished reading Isaac Asimov's "Foundation," and I have to say, I'm impressed. As a fan of science fiction, I was excited to dive into this classic novel, and it did not disappoint.

The story takes place in a far-off future where humans have colonized the galaxy and built a vast empire that has lasted for thousands of years. However, the empire is on the verge of collapse, and a dark age is looming. Enter Hari Seldon, a brilliant mathematician who predicts the empire's downfall and creates a plan to save humanity from thousands of years of barbarism.

The plan involves establishing a "Foundation" on a remote planet called Terminus, which will serve as a repository of knowledge and a center for the development of technology. The Foundation's mission is to preserve the knowledge of the past and use it to rebuild civilization when the time is right.

The story is divided into five parts, and each part covers a significant period in the Foundation's history. As the years go by, the Foundation faces many challenges, including threats from neighboring planets and internal power struggles. The characters who populate the story are fascinating and multi-dimensional, each with their own personalities and motivations.

One of the things that impressed me about "Foundation" was the way Asimov created such a detailed and complex world. The story is full of political intrigue, technological advancements, and a sense of grandeur that is both inspiring and humbling.

I also found the concept of psychohistory fascinating. This is the science of predicting the future based on mathematical models, and Seldon's plan for the Foundation is based on this idea. It was interesting to see how psychohistory played out over the course of the story.

The plot is well-paced, with plenty of twists and turns to keep the reader engaged. As the story progresses, the stakes become higher, and the tension builds to a dramatic conclusion.

One of the things that struck me about "Foundation" was the way it explores the concept of progress. Asimov was writing at a time when the idea of technological progress was prevalent, and he delves deeply into this theme through the Foundation's development of advanced technology. However, the story also acknowledges the limitations of progress, as the characters grapple with the moral and ethical implications of their actions.

In conclusion, "Foundation" is a fantastic read, full of action, intrigue, and fascinating characters. Asimov's world-building and characterization are impressive, and the story is a thought-provoking exploration of the themes of progress, knowledge, and power. If you're a fan of science fiction or just looking for an engaging and thought-provoking read, "Foundation" is a great choice.

#Science fiction #Isaac Asimov #Galactic Empire #Foundation #Psychohistory #Knowledge #Progress #Political Intrigue #Technology #Characterization #book review

[immaculatasknight]

Mesmerizing a generation of technocrats

#Isaac Asimov #science fiction #psychohistory #technocracy #cybernetics #social engineering #neofeudalism

[vvniceday]

i only watch foundation for lee pace’s raw sex appeal sorry

#i’m actually not sorry idc #i took notes my entire watch of what i enjoyed and didn’t care for and most of the positives was the brothers plots so 🤷‍♀️ #i also fucking love the brother dynamics and their different opinions/way of leading #+ the general political culture of trantor #gaal is cool as fuck and i love her but i don’t care for both her and salvor having psychic abilities #like the psychohistory concept was already awesome i want to go back to kicking ass mentally and with math #foundation apple tv #lee pace

[daincrediblegg]

Hari is fine. Let me explain in quick summary

1) we haven’t seen the axe shot from the trailers yet and he’s wearing the new outfit for it. So we’re fine there

2) it just struck me that I think Gaal… actually knows. And my evidence for this is the conversation she has with salvor before Hari gets his new flesh prison: Salvor says they’re more alike than she thinks, and of course, what better way would there be to flex this if she (and Hari probably- wouldn’t surprise me if he’s in on it) isn’t playing Tellem like a fucking fiddle and faked Hari’s new flesh prison death in some way? Perhaps making her see what she wants her to see with those newfound powers of hers? And already convincing the locals of Hari’s vision. Plenty of people have underestimated Gaal before only for them to be wrong (EVEN HARI!!!) and lets not forget how she LIED to empire to save his life. Why would she doubt her continuing instincts to save Hari time and again NOW? The answer is simple: she isn’t. She’s been doing it this whole goddamn time.

#in fact tbh it wouldn’t surprise me if she was in the tide pool for the actual drowning instead of hari and he was just hanging out in the #woods somewhere #she caught onto psychohistory right quick why couldn’t she pick up all the mentalic’s tricks? #anyway I’m a dark horse gaal truther #gaal dornick #hari seldon #foundation #spoilers

[virtualcarrot]

Foundation really said "I'll solve every plot thread through deus ex machina", uh?

#so much bait and switch #foundation #finally caught up with this show and #hm #let's just say i don't quite get the hype #it's gorgeous #it's well filmed #it's well acted #(mostly)(i can't stand mallow and the clerics) #(seriously the tonal discordance URH) #(though poly gets a pass because he doesn't feel as much like a character that'd belong in a disney!star wars) #but gods if the plot doesn't keep UNDOING its own emotional beats #also honestly if hari was able to create something like the vault from the very beginning #and the vault can SAVE THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE FROM AN EXPLODING PLANET #why the fuck are we bothering making it all about psychohistory? why are we pretending? #Demerzel remains the only stable and compelling thing about this show she has yet to fail me #because it's COHERENT #new knowledge we get about her doesn't keep REWRITING previously acquired one #anyway it's not a bad show but it definitely lives neither to the hype nor the expectations of those early season 1 episodes (imo etc etc) #carrot has an opinion

[joehills]

Isaac Asimov: the first five books of my Foundation series tell how one mathematician became a legend by predicting social forces at interplanetary scales.

Also Asimov: the 6th book will be a prequel about him being dunked on for months straight for not knowing liberal arts like at all. He gets owned so badly by experts in other fields that he repeatedly nearly dies. I’ll open each chapter with an excerpt from an encyclopedia written ten thousand years later that makes this period of Seldon’s life sound historically important and mysterious, but then the actual story is about how this moron doesn’t know the word “religious” or how to use an oven or clock. The novel will stress out the same types of readers who are bothered by It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia because if Craig Mazin, Charlie Day, and Megan Ganz wrote an episode called “Dennis invents Psychohistory” that work would be functionally identical to this novel to all but the shrewdest of branch managers of a regional paper company. While this novel is a prequel, it will advance readers’ understanding of the Foundation setting as ineffective Trantorian leaders trip over themselves trying to capture Seldon, while he continuously fails upward like Bill Murray in the film The Man Who Knew too Little so preposterously and frequently that it will become inescapably thematically clear that his Foundation can only inevitably do the same. I expect this will be a great comfort to readers.

Me: huh, that was a choice.

#foundation #seldon crisis #isaac asimov #asimov #hari seldon #it’s always sunny on trantor

[aidenwaites]

Idk if I actually care to read the Foundation books because the politics and all of the large-scale future of humanity type stakes in Robots were not my favorite thing about it by a long shot but also.... I want to know whats up with the Daneel/Demerzel thing I keep seeing referenced

#if im being honest by the end of Robots and Empire i was just skimming the scenes with Amadiro and Mandamus #like the more isolated murder mystery stuff of the previous books was interesting (even if they had large-scale implications) but #the like... psychohistory abstract stuff just blurs over when im reading it #q reads asimov