Some Oscar predictions for fun: in bold is what I think the Academy will pick. In italics is what I'd pick. If I leave italics off, I have no opinion or I don't think any of the nominees were that great. If I cross them out, I'm wondering why they were mentioned in the first place (Top Gun? Avatar? Really?).
Best Picture (way too many nominees)
All Quiet on the Western Front — Malte Grunert, Producer
Avatar: The Way of Water — James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
The Banshees of Inisherin — Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers
Elvis — Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers - WINNER
The Fabelmans — Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers
Tár — Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers
Top Gun: Maverick — Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
Triangle of Sadness — Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers
Women Talking — Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers
Best Directing
The Banshees of Inisherin — Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert - WINNER
The Fabelmans — Steven Spielberg
Tár — Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness — Ruben Östlund
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Austin Butler in Elvis
Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser in The Whale - WINNER
Paul Mescal in Aftersun
Bill Nighy in Living
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett in Tár
Ana de Armas in Blonde
Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie (if she wins it will be entirely bc of white Hollywood women campaigning for her)
Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once - WINNER
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway
Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once - WINNER
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau in The Whale
Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once - WINNER
Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front — Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery — Written by Rian Johnson
Living — Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
Top Gun: Maverick — Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
Women Talking — Screenplay by Sarah Polley - WINNER
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin — Written by Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert - WINNER
The Fabelmans — Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
Tár — Written by Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness — Written by Ruben Östlund
Best Animated Film
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio — Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley - WINNER
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On — Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish — Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
The Sea Beast — Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
Turning Red — Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins
Best Original Song
“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick; Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR; Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose - WINNER
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once; Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne
Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front — Germany - WINNER
Argentina, 1985 — Argentina
Close — Belgium
EO — Poland
The Quiet Girl — Ireland
Best Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin — Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
Elvis — Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Paul Rogers - WINNER
Tár — Monika Willi
Top Gun: Maverick — Eddie Hamilton
Reblogged with the actual winners.
The only big surprise was Jamie Lee Curtis, but I guess they just had to give it to a white chick instead of Angela Bassett who has been shut out of a win for like, 30 years.
And Jimmy Kimmel can keep his day job. The Will Smith jokes were tasteless and too much tonight underlined all the racist/anti-Black sentiment out there (wasn't helped by that Entertainment Weekly set of anonymous interviews this past week).
But EEAAO making a clean sweep? Outstanding.
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wrt valonqar speculation, if the valonqar is allowed to be someone else's unrelated younger sibling, let's stretch that to use the "but maester aemon said gender doesn't matter in hv" clause to mean the valonqar is not even restricted to being a younger brother either. that makes just as much sense as noting the prophecy says the valonqar, not your valonqar. what if cersei is killed by someone else's sister who keeps a lannister vendetta list? no, i don't mean arya stark, dummies. i mean her undead mother, lady stoneheart!
but catelyn was an eldest child, not anyone's younger sibling you say? wrong! "Her two older brothers had both died in infancy", meaning she was actually a younger, thirdborn child. if the valonqar is not restricted to cersei's own brothers, and could be younger siblings in general, why not count someone who was a younger sister only to two dead brothers she never knew? of all the non-lannister younger siblings, did anyone else specifically dream of strangling cersei? ("dream of riding to King's Landing and wrapping my hands around Cersei Lannister's white throat and squeezing until her face turns black." compare that to the valonqar prophecy of "the valonqar shall wrap his hands about your pale white throat and choke the life from you." why else would grrm ever repeat the unique phrasing of "white throat" in such a way? obviously it has to mean something!) and the chapter where cat speaks of her dreams of choking cersei (Catelyn V, aCoK) comes right before her chapter revealing the existence of two dead elder brothers (Catelyn VI, aCoK). that can't be a coincidence, people! grrm wants us to connect those two facts in the back of our minds, so when the true valonqar is revealed it will be shocking but make perfect sense in retrospect to those few of us who have been paying attention.
c'mon now, folks! who has a higher lannister threat level: the former lannister dog who killed his brothers' goons only in self-defense and became a lamed dog; the knight of flowers who has only ever killed baratheon soldiers, his own men included; some child whose little hands probably can't strangle anyone; or the spirit of vengeange hunting down all frey- and lannister-affiliated enemies, who had cersei lannister near the top of her hit list before her death? i rest my case. accept no other non-lannister valonqar substitutions.
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having a lot of thoughts right now at 4am about chay being ruthless
there’s a specific animorphs quote i’m thinking of:
"People don't understand the word ruthless. They think it means 'mean.' It's not about being mean. It's about seeing the bright, clear line that leads from A to B. The line that goes from motive to means. Beginning to end. It's about seeing that bright, clear line and not caring about anything but the beautiful fact that you can see the solution. Not caring about anything else but the perfection of it." — Marco, The Reunion by K.A. Applegate
specifically the bit: It's about seeing the bright, clear line that leads from A to B.
now, i dont think chay from season 1 is ruthless. but i very much see him as having the makings of it. chay has a very simple and direct approach to things; he sees something he wants, so he pursues it (he asks his idol for lessons their first meeting, he doesn’t let kim skip out on tutor lessons, he confesses twice because he had a homework goal and then a personal goal, he wants the truth so he confronts kim that same day, etc). and we see this theme of ‘chay has a goal, chay pursues goal’ most often with kim because they specifically foil each other in this. kim has a grand speech about making sacrifices to achieve your goals, but he’s stagnant between the world he was borne into and cant fully leave because of his brothers, vs the soft bright world he wants to be in but cant because he comes bearing blood. this directly contrasts with chay, who pursues his goals fullheartedly and recklessly
now, chay's not ruthless. not...yet. but there’s also these little...hints of a ruthlessly practical mindset to him. the most standout point for me in this regard was episode 1 when porsche is worried about his uncle. he’s sent arthee away, but he’s still planning “how do i get uncle out of trouble, and how do i maximize it?”
but chay? chay’s straight up like “uncle’s problems aren’t ours, lets just runaway to go live your dream of owning a bar on the beach”
i love this scene between porsche and chay so much. not only is really heartwarming, but i think it rly solidifies who they are as characters right off the bat. porsche is a caretaker. he takes care of everyone around him, whether he has an obligation to or not. but chay is fully ready to just leave their uncle behind. uncle interferes with brother’s and mine’s future plans? then no uncle in future plans. chay doesn’t even seem to mourn nor care that his uncle, one of his two caretakers left, is just gone from his life after ep1. like...that’s a really cold assessment for a teenager to make about one of his two living family members (that he knows of)
for me, what holds chay back from tipping into any sort of ruthless so far is mostly his naivety. not innocence (chay is not innocent yes i am still fighting on this hill), but he has certain expectations of the world that don’t necessarily match what the world is. to me, this shows most clearly when he sees warning flags (”...how do you know i have a brother?”) but is fully willing to ignore them in favor of pursuing his original goal(s) instead of taking the warning flags into account. and since he doesn’t plan for them, when some of those flags grow into actual problems, they really trip him up in ways he’s not prepared to handle. but he doesn’t have that any more at the end of season 1
if we do get a second season, i would be v curious to see where chay’s character develops. im apparently the outlier lol, but i actually really love where kim and chay ended in s1. they were on a trajectory to crash in the middle and instead they missed and landed where the other started. kim, the kid running away from the things he’s always wanted, puts himself out there with zero expectation or surety that chay will reach back. chay lingers over the video, unsure if he wants to respond to it or block it, so he throws his phone away to deal with it another time. and it’d just be really interesting to see how these two characters would react following the same trajectory the other one originally did, but coming at it with a very different background/development. and for chay specifically, i would just rly love to see how his ep1 “lets just abandon uncle to the debtors and go live our dreams on a beach” hints might come back/come into play in a mafia world setting
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