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constantvariations · 1 year

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V9C6

Pro tip: never let someone who doesn’t understand the RP in RPG run a DnD campaign

Post Ep: quite possibly the best episode of the season so far. Things actually happened for once, and it was all character focused. By V9 standards this is an absolute masterpiece

Hey the OP changed to show Jaune’s ugly ass breaking the 4th wall. Don’t care about your sad face dude

Oh goddammit not this 1st POV shit again. I get doing it for Ruby bc yknow. Main character. Show’s named after her and everything. Jaune? Not so much

So we don’t even get an indication of when Jaune originally showed up? Where even is he?

Ah yes, let’s just skip right past the trauma of someone waiting literally decades for people he knows are coming but not when to have some silly whoosh sound effects and bullet fast questions

One thing I will say is I much prefer this voice to his usual. It’s far more natural and far less grating on my soul

WHY ARE THEY MAKING WEISS LIKE THIS. WHO IS THIS BITCH AND WHERE IS THE REAL WEISS

Like, if she’d shown any interest in an older man before this then, fine, Weiss would be into older men, but this is coming from literally fucking nowhere and feels like, yet again, the writers are catering to themselves via their pet rather than thinking about what the characters would actually do

“We got everybody out” think you’re missing a few dozen folks. Yknow. The ones who Cinder exploded off the bridge? Even if the explosion killed all of them, which is statistically unlikely, there would still be bodies somewhere. Thanks to the timey whimey fuckery, we could see them falling from the sky at any time, which would be gruesome as fuck but a very poignant moment of failure for them all

Aaaaaand once again the team’s attempts to have a proper fucking discussion about their past actions and the subsequent consequences interrupted. By fucking Jaune. Goddammit

“What cat?” Does Jaune not know the story or is he attempting to clarify it’s Curious instead of some other resident? Also, damn that was actually a good bit of voice acting. Is this Luna or is someone else playing Elder Banana Boy?

The framing of Curious Cat under clear skies to Jaune under dark clouds is really fucking good. Wonder if the protruding jackalope antlers means something or if it’s just too big to leave out of frame

“This place really is the pits” I’m not entirely sure this is something Weiss would say, but punderful crossroads ig

So the tree is the source of the Againing? I feel it’d be more impactful if residents went to the tree willingly, like a sacred pilgrimage, rather than being dropped through a hole

Though this does present an interesting choice for Ruby: go to the tree and become someone new or continue with the choices and responsibilities. It must be incredibly tempting

“[Yang and Blake] must’ve had something bigger to work out.” Shut the fuck up their romance isn’t even tied to any character arcs or thematic problems; they’ve just been circling each other for fucking seasons while ignoring everything and everyone else. This is NOT bigger than what’s already at hand

Ah yes, the perfect solution to force a romantic confession: dangling people on a rickety bridge in high winds. Guess that brings a new meaning to “falling for you”

“So, what, Alyx lied?” Damn sure would be nice to know the actual story so we can feel the same betrayal the characters do

God can I just skip over the high rise bumblebee moments? I’m cringing so hard my intestines are straightening out. Also is it just me or is the animation around these parts really strange? I can’t put my finger on it but it’s wigging me out

Not entirely sure how I’m feeling about this Alyx reveal. Would it really have been so wrong for an innocent, naive girl in strange and overwhelming circumstances to make terrible mistakes? Wouldn’t that be far more relevant to Ruby’s own journey, especially if Alyx never learned to take responsibility? Especially if one of those mistakes cost her a brother she never spoke of again, perhaps eventually even forgot due to the guilt?

Idk this kinda feels like another complicated, morally grey situation being boiled down to “bad person hurt good person so we hate the bad person." Also, not great that she and the dead bro are the only ones darker than milk this season. Gr8 representation rt

“You have cat ears!” ...why are we alive? Just to suffer? I swear this volume has made more of a fuss about Blake’s status as a “non-human” than all other volumes combined. SHE IS JUST A HUMAN WITH CAT EARS I’M GOING TO EAT A FUCKING FRIDGE

“Maybe it’s saying things we’ve never said to each other.” Damn y’all haven’t really done any talking about anything so if that’s the rule y’all could reach the platform by straight up talking about the weather or books and videogames

Also this forced confession feels really icky. They’re basically hostages to the environment. It’s not cute that the confession is coming out of this situation, it’s fucking appalling. Especially when you consider how much better and more natural it would’ve been in V6 or V7. Hell, I’d take a wildly out of place kiss in V8 rather than this

I think Blake should’ve been the one to say it first. She’s the one with the running away problem, so her being the one to step up and face her fears in such a personal manner would be far better for her character arc than urging Yang to take the leap instead

“You never give up on people, even when they hurt you.” Adam Taurus and every White Fang member she’s killed is calling bullshit. Blake never tried reaching out to any of these people and clearly had no problem slicing and dicing them for the sake of humans who give zero shits about faunus rights

“You never give up” I think her retreat in V4 counts as giving up, Yang, but you wouldn’t know that because you’ve NEVER FUCKING TALKED

Huzzah, a kiss! Now, how about a proper, healthy relationship?

So Curious knew the story all along? Which means we didn’t have to suffer that obnoxious, self-righteous snore of a “love letter to the fandom” because it was required for the plot. We suffered it because the writers wanted us to suffer. Thanks I hate it

I really like the checkers going dull when Curious gets sad. They’re genuinely the best part of this volume, followed only by that gorgeous mushroom forest. I just wish their colors were better. There’s a difference between bright and eyestrain, and they very much are the latter

“You used me in the same way I’ve only seen [indecipherable] for knowledge and entertainment.” Firstly, can I get some goddamn captions please my family is starving. Secondly, go get em baby I got yo flower

Damn did they rip that house straight from the ps2? What the fuck

Ah, bathos. Possibly the worst literary crime possible. Why would we ever ruminate on the fact that Ruby and co. have been using people and making lives worse everywhere they go when we can watch Blake and Yang suck face?

Also, I’m fairly certain that, out of the two of them, Yang would be the one to pop a leg

“I think Alyx traded [Louis] to the tree [in order to leave]” Is that what Ruby’s gonna propose? Being traded so everyone else can go home? Doubt the tree will allow such an uneven trade to begin with, but, once again, a tempting idea

Why is Ruby having an episode over Cresent Rose’s return? Is it the reminder of what happened at the V8 crossroads? The responsibility it represents? The identity she no longer has?

This would be easier to understand if we had any build up. If the return of her weapon is going to be this heavy, then the loss of it at the beginning should have made a serious impact. But it didn’t. She didn’t even look for it. Never once talked about it. Outside of fights, Cresent Rose’s absence has been completely ignored

And why is no one seeing her very clear and obvious distress yet AGAIN? WBY cheer when she gets it back, but it makes them seem ignorant to the point of callousness. Par for the course this volume, but the longer it goes on, the less I actually care about any of this

If her supposed friends, including the overprotective sister who apparently raised her, don’t notice Ruby waving more red flags than Sayaka Miki, then why should I be bothered whenever it’s happening? If the story keeps dragging her symptoms out episode after episode, cutting the scene any time it feels like we’re about to get somewhere, then why should I invest any energy into it? If the story doesn’t care, why should I?

Luna is, indeed, still the voice of Jaune. Great improvement, boyo, keep this voice for him forever

#rwde #so when is jaune gonna talk abt penny #whens he gonna admit he stabbed her in the heart #hows he going to say it now that hes had decades to come to terms w it but for them penny was alive like. yesterday #or even this morning #thats what im waiting for. thats the shit i wanna see #bc i think thats gonna be the thing that makes ruby break #i wanna see her shatter then figure out what to do w the pieces #im genuinely sad abt Curious tho #i like the little guy despite him being an eyesore #but now that hes gone were gonna have to deal w fucking little again arent we #eat that fuckign mouse right now #also there were a lot of interesting hooks in this ep #alyx and louis. the tree being the source of agains. Curious leaving them behind #more and more consequences are piling up on the team. v interested to see how they handle it #and now that the bees are canon hopefully theyll remember that other people fuckign exist #yang your sister is potentially going to reset herself. maybe you should take notice instead of sucking face

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feministandangry · 3 years

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The 6pm curfew

So, lets talk about the 6pm curfew for men...

This was suggested (ironically i might add) by Baroness Jones in response to what happened to Sarah Everard. You would have to be blind to have missed the story, but just in case you have been living under a rock somewhere - the 33 year old woman disappeared from Clapham common a couple of weeks ago, her body has since been found and a policeman has been charged with her kidnapping and murder.

It was suggested that rather than asking women to stay at home after dark to keep themselves safe from this kind of attack, we actually ask men.,...the perpetrators to stay home. This is a “don’t protect your daughters, educate your sons instead” kind of message which makes sense to anyone with half a brain.

Now obviously it is not a serious suggestion, Baroness Jones herself has said that, it was meant to convey a message. It would be incredibly unfair to put a curfew in place on ALL men for the actions of some, however as a society we have no issue at all with asking ALL women to stay home to protect themselves.

See, i underestimate the stupidity of the human race all the time, it is one of my greatest failings. So logging on to various social media outlets i was actually surprised at the effect this comment had and how seriously some people were taking it.

From men talking about petitions and campaigning against the enforced curfew, to men making “funny” videos of themselves dressing up as women to get past the curfew and of course the usual whiny...”its not fair” comments - men everywhere were taking this seriously, just not in the way that they should be.

In all of these comments, posts and videos i saw men outraged and complaining about the great injustice being done to them which of course has led to the resurrection of the #notallmen hashtag (here we go again...) I also saw exasperated women trying to explain the irony to them....but nowhere did i see a shred of humanity for the life that has been lost or any real openness for a discussion about the real issue here - women’s safety.

Of course this has also coincided with the statistics released from a study done by UNWomen about the number of women who are being sexually harassed (97% of all young women). Again...you would hope that this might open up the discussion about this kind of behaviour and why it makes women unsafe. Wrong again, it has just opened the door for fans of #notallmen to continue their whining about how they are victims and do all in their power to invalidate women’s very real experiences and close the protective circle around their brothers.

Yet again (and i don’t know why this continues to surprise me) the response has been overwhelmingly attack as the best form of defence. Countless men coming back to any mention of attack, violence, assault or harassment against women with things like “men get assaulted by women” or “women can be abusers too”. I even had one guy claim that 80% of single mothers abuse their children. Just purely inventing statistics to fit their narrative, believing (because we are women presumably) that we are stupid enough to believe them blindly.

There are issues with men being victims of domestic violence, but this is not what we are discussing this week, this week is about a woman who was murdered, a very real and disturbing statistic and an opportunity for women to tell their stories and men to listen.

So back to the curfew, it would never happen, in fact we aren’t even saying that is what we want. Even if we did, laws are passed by men, countries are run by men, is anyone stupid enough to believe that it would be even a possibility? The point we are making and it is being disturbingly missed is that we need to stop blaming women. I don’t want to hear the question....what was she doing out so late on her own? What was she wearing? Had she been drinking? NO! The time has passed for this kind of victim blaming. We need to be better than this, both men and women. We need to stop placing the responsibility on women to keep ourselves safe and start educating men to stop the intimidation in the first place. Anyone who genuinely cannot understand that for an eternity there has been an unofficial curfew on women, they aren’t listening.

It is time to be better. It is time to start listening to our version of events and understanding why we feel the way we do and what every one of us can do to make it better.

Enough really is enough.

#feminism #sarah everard #notallmen #yesallwomen #womensrights #enoughisenough

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newsaajtak2021 · 3 years

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PoliticsStatistical Afternotes: TMC May Have Won Bengal, but BJP Did Not Do BadlyAlthough TMC has been able to script a resounding victory in Bengal, looking at the finer statistical details shows how BJP's vote share has jumped from an indifferent 10% to 38% in the space of a single election.2 hours ago | Prashant Iyengar The West Bengal assembly election has been cynosure of all eyes with BJP raising the stakes. Illustration: The Wire/PTI.

As the din and drama of election season begin to wind down, there are a few points to ponder that statistics from the West Bengal elections bring into view. Statistics, of course, vastly deplete the sensory richness of an event like an election.

Catcalls like ‘Didi O Didi’ and bellows of ‘Jai Shri Ram’, backstabbings and paybacks, the true stuff of elections are statistically ‘mute’ phenomena. Fortunately, we have, by now, several extremely penetrating accounts that have interpreted the West Bengal electoral outcome for us in terms of its discourse and dramaturgy. To this corpus of opinion pieces, which tells us the real story, let me add a few statistically-founded afternotes.

The BJP did not do ‘badly’…

We begin with the obvious. How we assess the BJP’s performance in these elections depends, of course, largely on where we set our expectations. Compared to the men, the muscle, the money and, allegedly, even the Election Commission that the BJP poured into their Bengal campaign, and especially measured against their campaign boasts, 77 seats must seem like a poor return indeed.

Union Home Minister and BJP leader Amit Shah during an election campaign rally in support of party candidates for the West Bengal Assembly Polls at Buniadpur in South Dinajpur district, Thursday, April 22, 2021.

However, this is still a party that grew from three seats and an indifferent 10% vote share to a staggering 77 seats and 38% vote share in the space of a single election. These advances have been fairly well-reckoned with in the commentary that has followed the election.

Also read: West Bengal: Of 19 Turncoat MLAs Contesting From BJP, 13 Lost

But let me add another telling statistic to this picture – among the 291 constituencies that the BJP contested, it won 77, and came second in 200, and finished third in 14 constituencies. That is, it was never ranked lower than third in a single constituency that it contested. This ought to convey a sense, not fully captured in this round’s tally of seats, of the inflationary presence that the party has acquired across the state within a short span of time.

But it could easily have done a lot worse

Notwithstanding the party’s impressive turnout, the BJP will feel fortunate to have ended with the tally that it did. While Mamata Banerjee’s narrow loss at Nandigram has captivated media attention, there were at least 20 constituencies where the BJP won against TMC candidates with extremely slender margins between 500-5000 votes, and where a single third party like the Left Front, Congress or Independent also polled a substantial number of votes.

Illustratively in Balarampur, the incumbent TMC candidate lost to the BJP by a margin of 423 votes. The Congress candidate in this constituency polled over 8,000 votes – votes that, the TMC might legitimately feel, cost them the seat. Ironically, this means that the BJP owes 20 of its seats to the presence of its most bitter opponents, the Left and the Congress.

To be sure, the TMC also had its share of close shaves – 12 seats where their margin of victory was less than 5,000 votes, and where a third-placed party/candidate polled enough votes to play spoiler.

For instance, in Tamluk where the TMC candidate beat the BJP candidate by a margin of 793 votes, and the CPI(M) candidate polled over 14,000 votes. Could the BJP have won here, had the CPI(M) not contested?

It depends on whether you think it likely that more than half of these 14,000 CPI(M) voters might have voted BJP. This seems improbable. Speculations of this kind are only worth so much, but with the polarising campaigns that the BJP runs, votes cast for any other party in the fray are quite likely to be affirmative votes against the BJP. Consequently, in these seats that the BJP lost narrowly, one gets the impression that the absence of a third party would only have extended the magnitude of their loss.

Also read: ‘Didi, Oh Didi’: How BJP Crafted Its Own Humiliation in Bengal

Does this mean that the CPI(M) and the Congress ought to have either vacated the field or swallowed their pride and stitched together an alliance with the TMC, their most bitter rival in the state? There is a vital difference between merely mathematical possibilities, such as the kinds I have outlined above, and the intricate real world of political negotiation that must be borne in mind before making any such assessments.

For a string of state elections now, though, Congress’s electoral strategy appears to have been organised around the question of how to ally themselves so that they cause the least possible damage to regionally competitive parties. This is prudent, and answers the call of the times, but cannot but enfeeble the party in the long run and nationwide. Curiously, one senses the exasperation of their position most acutely in Prashant Kishor’s barbs directed at Rahul Gandhi.

A polity that de-fragments itself

One striking feature of this election was the consistency with which this remained a two-way fight between the BJP and the TMC despite the presence of other influential parties (Congress/Left), independents and NOTA (the most underrated political force in this country).

As is well known, an important weapon in the NDA/BJP election arsenal has been the splintering of the opposition vote. The innovations of ‘Mahagathbandhans’ in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are attempts to counter this, although they have only succeeded to a degree.

In last year’s Bihar elections, for example, Independents, ‘Other Parties’ and NOTA absorbed a staggering 20% of all votes cast. The Mahagathbandhan there lost over 25 seats in close contests (

'No to BJP, But Yes to What?': Why Bengal’s Decisive Mandate Reflects Courage

Bengal: Key Factors That Led to TMC's Defeat of the Modi-Shah Behemoth

Amidst Reports of Deaths in Post-Poll Violence in West Bengal, Banerjee Appeals for Peace

Pandemic and Elections in West Bengal: Modi's Conjoint Failures

Bengal: Mamata Banerjee to Be Sworn in as CM on May 5, Favours United Fight Against BJP in 2024

Fake News and Communal Incitement Add Fuel to Post-Poll Fire in West Bengal

BJP Will Do All it Can to Ensure West Bengal Remains on the Boil

Bengal: How BJP Leaders Used Fake News to Build a Communal Narrative on Post-Poll Violence

How West Bengal Halted the BJP’s Chariot

Watch | 'Violence in Bengal Isn't Communal, But It Is Violence Nonetheless

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ghoestys · 3 years

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and this is ruby! my 4th and final muse! been wanting to use gayoung’s pretty face since she was in tempted and now that shes in true beauty it made me want to use her even more! and the content she gave us while playing yeo hajin? iconic this is ruby <3

STATISTICS

full name: ruby odette im nickname(s): rue, rubes, ro, odette, od, odettie age: twenty two date of birth: october 8th, 1998 hometown: tba! gender: cis female pronouns: she/her/hers religion: christian (raised, non-practicing) sexuality: bisexual & biromantic hair colour: brunette eye colour: brown height: 5'9″ tattoos: dainty colored lavender on her left ankle facing outward (ex) piercings: standard & upper lobe (both), forward helix & industrial (right), daith (left)

PROMPT + BLACKMAIL

a legacy and member of the yale's elite, they're twenty-two and a sophomore undergrad student majoring in law. they are as positive as they are negative.

● was caught with a dui and almost got her license revoked because of it, but she flirted her way out of the ticket and convinced the police officer to kill the report by giving him tickets to a movie premiere where she held a small role. background: this happened in new york after she was attempting to drive home from a party with her 3 model friends who were also all drunk. she was 20 at the time and should’ve also gotten in-trouble for underaged drinking along with driving under the influence, but she truly utilized her fame status and looks. luckily no one got hurt and the road was pretty empty so there wasn’t many cars, but it was still dangerous and irresponsible because if she wasn’t pulled over, then she would’ve hit busier traffic and something definitely would’ve happened. after being pulled over and saving her ass, ruby stopped driving and ordered a lyft to pick up her and her friends to drop them back to her apartment in new york.

● was convinced her father was having an affair with a news anchor, so ruby convinced producers, news channels, and everyone in the business to blacklist them from ever working and essentially ruining and ending the new anchor’s career. unknown to ruby, though, is that the news anchor was never having an affair with her father and it was actually colette who was having an affair with her father at the time. background: her relationship with her dad has always been rocky, but the minute she found out he was having an affair and cheating on her mom made ruby go batshit. she wasn’t sure who the person was exactly except for that her father was having an affair because she was overhearing flirty & secretive phone calls and was seeing bills for expensive gifts that her mother was never receiving. when ruby saw her dad meeting with a news anchor frequently, ruby automatically assumed that was the person her father was having an affair with and essentially ruined that new anchor’s career. the new anchor’s career ended very abruptly and ruby loved seeing it. she loved her mom and she wasn’t going to let anyone hurt her- not her father and not the news anchor. unknown to ruby, though, is that the news anchor was never having an affair with her father and it truly was just business. ruby framed the wrong person and ruined an innocent person’s career for no reason.

ABOUT

family/upbringing/childhood

ruby’s family consisted of her father (randolph im), her mother (marissa im, nee byun), and her three younger siblings (edeline, brietta, and dominick)

her father, randolph im, is a top politician and was formerly a senator before being removed from officer and losing to his component- senator ahn. instead of being a senator, he’s apart of the house of representatives. other than being a politician, randolph also runs a loan business that’s not known unless you’re also apart of the top 1-10%. since they have so much money, he doesn’t mind giving out loans to those in need, but he always expects something in return (like a vote or an endorsement) and he always expects being paid back in time with interest included. if he doesn’t get his money paid back in time, then he’s a loan shark who sends his henchmen to do all the dirty work for him.

her mother, marissa im, is a house wife who happily takes care of her kids.

the family is as tight knit as it can be. it’s not hard for them to act loving and family-like infront of the media because that’s how they are everyday. they have their tense moments like every other family does, but they’re healthy for the most part.

healthy until it involves ruby and her father. these two are constantly butting heads and always arguing over something. maybe it’s because she’s the eldest daughter or maybe it’s because she doesn’t support her father’s shady loan business. she just doesn’t like him and the only time you’ll catching her supporting her father’s political career is when it’s family involved and her presence is required. other than that, ruby is typically absent from whatever political campaign her father does.

ever since ruby was a toddler, she loved the spotlight and performing. she loved acting and she loved when the cameras were on her whether it be for performing something or posing for something. since her mother noticed this, she was quick to put ruby in auditions for acting and modeling and since ruby was a natural, her acting and modeling career began at a very young age. she acted in children’s shows, movies as the younger version of a character and modeled for campaigns and spreads for brands like guess kids.

due to her career being a success at such a young age, ruby never experienced “real school” and was homeschooled her entire life. when she was on set for tv shows where she had to act in a school setting was basically her only experience as a student in a “real school”.

although her siblings would grow up differently (attending private schools instead of homeschool), ruby never minded this and never felt like she missed out on anything because she still learned how to socialize and got to act out wtvr she was possibly missing out on

career/college/the elites

luckily, as ruby got older and went from being a child to a pre/teen, her career didn’t stop and just kept growing. she filmed some tv shows and mostly focused on movies. when she turned 16/17, that was when her modeling career began to become more prominent because she was “old enough”, looked old enough, and was taller. she was having fun, living life, and traveling the world.

since she was a politician’s daughter, she was getting tutored on information about law and politics by the time she was 13. she had interest in law especially so she could spite her dad by telling him what he was possibly doing wrong, but also so she could negotiate her own contracts and understand what’s being said during the meetings. as a minor, she can’t sign contracts without a guardian but she sat there at the meetings feeling lost and wanted to know what they were saying.

although she loved spotlight when she was younger, by the time she was twenty she was starting to get over the fame. her career was successful, but she was starting to see and feel all the negatives that came with fame (especially in the modeling world where they criticized her looks often) and simply wanted out

when she turned 21, as a gift to herself she decided to take a break from her career/the spotlight so she could attend school and actually get a degree in law so she truly could negotiate her own contracts and understand all the legal terms being used during those meetings. she applied to yale and luckily she got accepted (mostly due to her career and philanthropy and because of yale being her father’s alma mater).

her father was a member of the yale elites, which makes ruby a legacy so that made her entrance into the organization very easy.

she still does modeling when she has the time, but her acting career is on hiatus until she finishes her bs in law.

don’t really know where to put this, but her stage name is odette im (her middle name) and only those that actually know her like friends & family call her ruby. she prefers to be called ruby because it’s her actual name, but professionally and in the tabloids she’s known as odette. she will still respond if you call her odette in a non-professional setting and honestly if ur muse met her while she was working then they probs know her as odette

personality

out of all my muses, i think ruby is the most genuinely nice one with no ugly intentions. silvia used to be like this, but silvia was also just willing to do shady things versus ruby who only does shady thing when shes truly hurt or angry or doing it for someone she loves (like ruining a person’s career to avenger her mom)

like taking care of people because shes an eldest daughter but also loves being taken cared of much more. whenever she’s being babied or treated as the youngest she’s happy because she’s used to have to take care of other people instead of herself

is honestly tired of the constant spotlight because she experienced it for so long, so think she’s more lowkey now except for those moments when shes modeling and partying at extravagant places and cities

believes honesty is key and the biggest way to lose her as a friends is to lie to her. she grew up away from the political setting, but it was still something she was apart of nonetheless and she knows how shady that area can b. knowing this, she tries to b as honest as possible and likes to hold people at a very honest level too like pls just be real with her and she’ll be real with u

doesnt mind talking about herself because thats what shes used to (her having to do interviews n shit all the time makes it easy for her to talk about herself)

basically an open book and even tho shes an award winning actress, shes terrible at hiding her real emotions infront of people who know her on a non-superficial level

can be very superficial with others due to her job and having to present herself a the best possible version of herself, but shes usually genuine for the most part like. if ur her friend then ur her friend she wont treat u like a professional associate or wtvr like??? does that even make sense

probs actually enjoys philanthropy work so shes involved n shit

can cook because she was the eldest daughter and also because she had to take care of herself while being in different cities by herself bc she couldnt eat out everyday

cant bake for shit tho like.. that shit is just not her thing. cant even make box brownies

fiercely loyal to those she loves and will legit do anything to protect them. also loves spoiling her friends bc like. if she has the money for it y not

WANTED CONNECTIONS IDEAS

someone that her father loaned money to! ruby is aware of her father’s business and is also aware of the clients because her dad doesn’t keep it a secret within the family. maybe your muse borrowed money and still hasn’t paid her father back for the loan so now the father found out information about ur muse and is holding it against them. ruby could be aware of this and attempt to help you-- if the muses get along tho :)

someone she met thru work! whether it be thru acting or modeling but i think that’d be so fun!! could be a good experience where they became friends or maybe they’re rivals in their careers that the media loves to put against each other. maybe they were even costars who didn’t get along, but the media loves making them out to be bffs!

bffs! friends! close friends!

enemies! betrayals! negatives!

cousins! because why not!

romance! ex flings! flirtationships! someone who leads her on!

ruby isn’t the type to do fwb or non-attachment style relationships because she gets attached to people very easily. with her job shes constantly surrounded by people and while she loves traveling, it can get very lonely. if she fell in love with u then she fell in love with u genuinely and whole heartedly. i think of all my muses, she falls in love the easiest

#intro

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missmentelle · 4 years

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Hi, thank you so much for running this blog :) I am often afraid that my gf will become abusive. I frequently run scenarios through my head of what I would do if she hit me or sexually assaulted me and I get so scared I can't calm down all day when she might be mad at me. But idk why I'm like this because she isn't like that at all. I've never been in a relationship before. Do you have any advice to get over this?

This is the unfortunate trade-off of there being increased awareness of abusive relationships and potential red flags and warning signs - although it’s great that more people now know what to look for in an abusive relationship, I’ve also noticed that some people have become hyper-vigilant about possible abuse, to the point that they are no longer able to enjoy their relationships. The word “toxic” in particular has been thrown around so much that I’m not sure it has any real meaning anymore - saying that your ex was “toxic” can mean anything from “they physically abused me” to “they didn’t tolerate me being crappy to them”, and it can make people concerned that every relationship that doesn’t “work out” in the long run (which is most of them) must have been “toxic” or “damaging” in some way. When you see constant reminders of abusive relationships everywhere, you’re more inclined to start worrying that abuse might always be just around the corner.

For what it’s worth, this isn’t a personal failing on your part - this is something called “the availability heuristic” or “availability bias”, and it’s part of how the human brain works. Basically, we tend to assume that things we’re most familiar with are more likely to happen or more important than they actually are. I’m guessing neither of us is old enough to remember the 1979 kidnapping of Etan Patz in NYC, but that kidnapping case launched an absolute explosion of fear across America that people were going to snatch their kids, and kicked off the “stranger danger” campaigns that continue to this day - even now, a lot of parents live in constant fear that their child will be abducted, even though stranger abductions of children in the US have always been insanely rare (on par with being struck by lightning), and children are in much, much greater danger of dying from heart attacks, swimming pool drownings or firearm accidents, which don’t get nearly as much attention.

Our brains are just not very good at judging risk or probability, and so we take mental shortcuts to do it. It made sense ten thousand years ago - if you knew five people who got been eaten by lions it’s probably safe to say that lion attacks are a real danger in your community - but those mental shortcuts just don’t work very well in our incredibly complex world. We are afraid of the dangers we’re most familiar with, not the dangers that are most likely to happen to us. The availability heuristic is why most people tend to assume that breast cancer kills the most people (it’s lung cancer, by a mile - breast cancer is fourth), or why many people think that you’re more likely to die from homicide than diabetes (the numbers aren’t even close - diabetes is one of the top causes of death in both the US and the world at large). Nobody wants bad things to happen to them, so when we learn about a bad thing happening, it’s very difficult to sit yourself down and think “okay, how likely is this thing in my present circumstances” - our brains just want to be afraid. If you are finding that the constant fear of being abused is creating a dark cloud over your relationship, I think you have three major options for dealing with it and getting to a place where you can enjoy your relationship in peace:

Remind yourself that abuse is the exception, not the rule. The majority of relationships are not abusive, and even among abusive relationships, the majority never turn physically or sexually violent. Everyone experiences some crappy and painful moments in their relationships (that’s true of all relationships, not just romantic ones), but when most relationships end, it’s not because of violence - it’s far more likely for relationships to end because you want different things in life, or because you just have nothing in common anymore, or because one person needs to move away and you’re both not on board with long distance. Plus, in your case, you already kind of have one of the greatest statistical protections from abuse that you can have - you’re dating a female partner. That’s not to say that women never turn abusive toward their partners - they can, and abuse from female partners is just as serious as male partners - but from a probability standpoint, you are much less likely to experience abuse from female partners vs. male partners.

Set healthy boundaries and stick to them. The best protection against abuse is to know the warning signs, set good boundaries, and be prepared to bail if those boundaries are being consistently crossed. When I say “set boundaries”, I don’t mean that you should keep your partner at arm’s length - they should absolutely be the closest person in your life. I simply mean that you should have no tolerance for behaviours that lead up to abuse. If your partner wants to look through your phone, the answer is no. If they demand that you go change into more ‘appropriate’ clothes before you leave the house, the answer is no (assuming you aren’t trying to wear bright yellow to their mom’s funeral). If they throw or break something during an argument, that’s a hard no. Abusive relationships tend to start out with “mild” behaviours that gradually escalate as your tolerance for these behaviours grows - one of the best defenses you can have is simply to identify cut-off points where you would absolutely leave the relationship, and then stick to those.

Speak with a therapist. This level of anxiety about abusive relationships could point to an emerging or underlying anxiety disorder, and it’s important to speak to a professional about what you’re going through. Relationships are supposed to be a source of support, happiness and comfort - if your relationship is a source of terror and anxiety, even when there’s no sign of abusive behaviour, that’s an issue that needs to be addressed. Any time anxiety is preventing you from enjoying your life, it’s important to talk to a professional so you can get the help that you need to start enjoying your life again.

At the end of the day, relationships are supposed to be a positive thing in our lives - our partner is often our best friend, closest confidante, and our adventure buddy, and even though it’s important to be aware of the warning signs that come with abuse, it’s also important to make sure that fear isn’t holding us back from enjoying our lives, especially when we don’t actually see any signs of danger. If you’re at the beach and a shark is spotted in the area, you should probably get out of the water, but until that happens, it’s important to just enjoy yourself - letting your fear of sharks keep you away from the beach means missing out on some of the joy life has to offer.

Best of luck to you! MM

#Anonymous

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darrowsrising · 4 years

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Hello. What's your take on the nascent religions on the series? around Eo and Darrow? Is first mentioned on IG, and when Romulus says the are fighting a religion whose god still lives. Then in DA, Dancer pretty much says the rising have been winning because the soldiers go suicidal mad and he joined the senate to counterweight the reaper. Then there is the Lysander cult for we have no information. And finally Ragnar's, he is already a god.

I do have opinions on them, but they are not objective, except for one - it was a given that this will happen. Darrow is the most god-like figure in the series and he is alive. Of course people will rally behind him and even make cults for him. It's a good thing that he is how he is and his worshippers can tell how not to push the lines.

I heard Paul Astreides, the hero of Dune, gets his own cult at some point and he is so remote from his people that they start doing shit in his name that he never would condone.

Darrow feels remote, but he would never ever allow or give his cult the opportunity to be arseholes in his name. It also helps that they fear the repercussions - Reaper goes through you, but the Goblin stays for seven courses.

Reaper being alive to say what goes and what doesn't is way better - like civil war, he refused it, although he knew that the people who side with him will go to ajy lengths for him, and they stood put, at most they manifested themselves pro Reaper, but peacefully.

I say it is way better, because if you look at Eo's cult, that's a religion that went out of line. She would indeed side with the Vox Populi, but as we all realised (some sooner than later), the Vox was wrong. Not in their demands (it's normal to want better rights for workers, to demand better in general), but in the way they went about it and the core philosophy they had - that Red should be on top and everyone else after them - basically a reserve pyramid, same opression, other opressors. I think, though, that even she would have been horrified at the crimes commited in her name - they executed innocents at her obelisk. If she were alive, she too would have been killed and martyrized for a madman's ambitions just like Dancer was.

Now to more subjective opinions -

Darrow is right that the Vox dragged her corpse in the Senate and dangled it around to make a point. Wrong points. Even though she would be on her side if she were alive, she is a symbol for hope, power against adversity, for everyone. Not for politicians to use her as an argument everytime they cook up some shitty idea. Yes, the peace was bullshit, some got that sooner rathen than later, but at least there is a consensus now, or it should be.

I think that Darrow's cult is presented in a more positive light - see the end of Dark Age, although there are also bits of Martians rallying behind Reaper no matter what through out teh book itself.

Although Dancer thinks himself some polar opposite to Reaper, I disagree that having soldiers going Blood Red in Darrow's name is something not normal. Because it's about the circumstances, they don't do that unless they are in an unescapable situation. And to say that the Rising has been winning because of that...well, if the Senate would really care about the soldiers so much, they wouldn't have abandoned them on Mercury to Atalantia's Iron Rains. And then go 'we have to cut the loose'. Dancer eventually came around, but he was still a shithead about it. He is the last person that I want to hear preaches on balance from.

No one goes Blood Red, unless they are truly in a situation that is without escape. Blood Red is someone's last stand against the enemy, they will fight with all their might. They will die and take as many motherfuckers with them as possible. Darrow is the only one I know that goes Blood Red and doesn't die. Why? Well, Darrow says that he goes Blood Red, but Lysander finds out what that means from other people.

Darrow always fights with all his might, he always fights like he will die if he doesn't kill the rest first. Because that's the truth. And he has the stamina and the skills to mantain that.

The reason why I disagree with Dancer is because Dancer intentionally created strife, because he thought the soldiers worship Reaper too much. Strife isn't the solution. It's the problem - that strife ended up with the Free Legions in pieces.

The reason why the soldiers are so ready to die, to sacrifice everything as long as there are less enemies and Reaper alive after they die, the reason why they would shank Harnassus in a heartbeat if he even thinks of messing with Darrow is because as far as they are concerned, Darrow cares about them just as much.

Darrow proved that he loves his soldiers more than any idiotic Senator ever could. And he proves that over and over again. The Senete abandoned them, sacrificed them, couldn't care less about them, they are a statistic as far as they are concerned. Darrow, destitute or not, came for them, fought for them. He is not a real god, not in the slightest. He can't just magically save them, he can't protect them, he can't stop the pain, heal the injured, revive the dead. But he loves them. And that's worth it for them. He is worth following to the fields of the Vale. And in this never-ending nightmare of dispair that is war - that matters the most. He brings them the hope and love that they need to endure everything.

That is why the soldiers go suicidal, but it's not on Darrow's orders at all. He is not Harmony.

Dancer thinks he brings balance, that he balances out Darrow's influence. And yes, Darrow SHOULD be questioned. But the soldiers' love for Darrow isn't the same like some actual cults that Darrow has. The soldiers choose to go Blood Red, they aren't brainwashed. Let's make a line in the sand - people who actively worship Reaper aren't the same as his own soldiers.

If anyone can see that Reaper is just flesh and blood, it's his soldiers. They see how human he is and how much he pushes his limits so often, they are surely used to it. And they still choose to do everything for him, not because he is some actual god. But because of the hope he gives them.

Virginia is right, the value of a man is the hope he gives his friends. So that is why I think that Dancer's way around 'the Reaper problem' was more damaging than solving. Because, yes, the people should question Darrow and Virginia, but not hate them. And Dancer specifically let his people call even Pax an abomination. That only created strife and mistrust that wasn't necessary. The Vox reacted how they reacted at the Day of the Red Doves, not because of the heat of the moment, they were boiling for years and Dancer lit the fire exactly like the actual abomination wanted.

A balance was needed, because creating a precedent with the position of ArchImperator is dangerous. Dancer was scared that Darrow would start civil war or that he will bend the Republic to his will or that the armies will rally always behind his every whim. First of all, not every soldier is like that - half the Free Legions bailed when the Senate said bail. Secondly, creating precedent is one, but no one would follow Zan like they do Darrow. And lastly, Darrow is Darrow, he never wanted power, he wanted a quiet life where no one will jump from the sky to massacrate his family - and to deny that, is delusion. That last sentence is not subjective, it's truth. Dancer should have found another way - being the fatherly figure while slandering your 'son' as if he is a momster now, wanting to cut off the Free Legions, but NEVER admitting your own fault in this matter, letting your people call an innocent child an abomination and acting behind close doors like that never happened and making an offensive campaign that benefitted nobody in the long run - was just not ok.

Ragnar's cult was, in my opinion, also promoted by the Howlers and their inside jokes. I think, though, that he is more popular among Obsisians and those he has helped and befriended in Tinos and their relatives/offsprings. People aren't that open to Obsidians even 10 years after his death, so it's not surprising that the Prince of the Spires isn't more popular. At least it doesn't feel so when I am reading. It feels like the people who have bias against Obsidians are just glad Ragnar is dead, because he sounds like a monster to them.

I heard a lot of 'Ragnar wouldn't have followed Darrow'. Maybe not on Venus, but he would have gone to Mercury for sure, no questions asked, he wouldn't abandon his friends! If only to manage to get them out of there, he would have done everything in his power.

So that is what I think about the whole matter.

Howl on!

#red rising trilogy #iron gold trilogy #darrow of lykos #darrow au andromedus #reaper #eo of lykos #persephone #ragnar volarus #shield of tinos

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somethingusefulfromflorida · 4 years

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13 Keys to the White House: UPDATE

The original post can be read here, I wrote it a day before George Floyd was murdered, and the political landscape has shifted SO MUCH since then.

There are 13 questions that define which party will win the presidential election based on how well the incumbent and challenging parties have fared over the last four years. The incumbent party needs 8 out of 13 to be true to win, while the challengers need 6 or more to be false. As of May 25, it stood, in order of severity

FALSE

Almost certainly false

Probably false

Maybe false

Unclear

Maybe

Maybe true

True as of right now

TRUE

Biden and Trump both has 3 solid keys in their field, with three more teetering on either side, and one tossup in the middle. It was anybody’s game, though Biden had a slight edge because he only needs 6 to Trump’s 8.

Not everything has changed in the last week, but just enough to solidify some of the less certain keys

Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. FALSE (Democrats won more in 2018 than Republicans won in 2014)

Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. TRUE (Donald Trump faces no real challengers)

Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE (barring the coronavirus, or a heart attack brought on by all the fast food he eats, Donald Trump will be the nominee this November)

Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. TRUE (Amash has dropped out, and the Libertarians have nominated a nobody who chose an even smaller nobody as her running mate. But then again, the election is 5 months away, which in 2020-months is approximately 9000 years away; a lot can change between now and then. I mean, just 5 months ago the coronavirus hadn’t spread outside of China yet. Maybe a conservative spoiler will gain traction. Maybe some disillusioned republicans will rally behind a write-in candidate. Maybe an asteroid hits and we all have to move underground and evolve into C.H.U.D.s to survive. Anything goes in 2020. Blow on them dice, LUCK BE A LADY)

Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. FALSE (The Great Shutdown, the second once-in-a-lifetime economic collapse in less than 15 years. We’re only four months into it right now; things are going to get so much worse before they get better.)

Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Almost Certainly False (Unemployment continues to rise at record breaking levels. Civil unrest is widespread in all 50 states, several territories, and even international cities in solidarity with the cause. The pandemic is far from over, and we are on the verge of a second wave.. There’s no chance in hell the economy will grow this year. 2020 is the Spiders Georg of years; it is a statistical outlier, it’s so low it’ll bring down the rest of the whole term, wiping out all growth since 2017. I mean, Republicans wanted trump to run the country like one of his businesses, and he’s giving them exactly what they wanted. This is his MO; run it into the ground, declare bankruptcy, don’t pay anyone, move onto your next failed project. Same shit as always)

Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.Unclear (He hasn’t kept many of his campaign promies, but he has enriched himself and his colleagues, abusing the power of the executive for personal gain, which is a pretty major change. This key will come down to the Supreme Court decisions on his tax returns; if they decide in favor of the president, they are saying that he doesn’t have to obey subpoenas anymore, expanding the powers of the president and getting rid of legislative oversight, checks and balances; this would be a HUGE policy change akin to declaring him a king, as it would mean he is no long capable of being held accountable for anything. If they decide against him though, a lot of skeletons will come bursting out of his closet, which may or may not damage him politically. Let’s be honest, they won’t. Nothing ever does. The tax returns could reveal that he has been paying a Russian company called “WE MEDDLE, YOU WIN, GUARANTEE” for thirty years, and he and his cronies will still spin it as a positive thing. Nothing ever hurts this guy, so I wonder why he even gives a shit about hiding his taxes anymore. All we know is that he has to be hiding something BIG if he’s going this far to try and cover it up, Could this take him down? Probably not, but fingers crossed.)

Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. FALSE (I made this post before the George Floyd protests began, but there’s no ambiguity about it now. The cracks in the system have been expanding for years, and now the dam has finally burst. And rightfully so; riots are the language of the unheard. My only concerns are that if the protests continue into November, a bunch of republican lawmakers are gonna use it as an excuse to stop people from voting. ”Curfew begins at 8PM, anyone still in line at their polling places will be arrested and/or shot”)

Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. FALSE (there’s only so much you an handle before you drop all pretenses and say “this is no longer subjective, this is objectively scandalous.” Everything they do is designed to get as big a reaction as possible, they pick the objectively worst people and take the objectively worst positions on everything because they’re trying to stoke controversy. Russia, Ukraine, carrots and potatoes. The real meat are all the domestic scandal. Turning off the White House lights and hunkering in a safe space underneath it like PUNK ASS BITCH? Mobilizing the National Guard around the country? Teargassing protestors so he can pose with a Bible he’s never read in front of a church he’s never attended, holding it up like it’s some annoying obligation of his, “see? See, I like the Bible. Look, I’m holding it up. Why would I be holding it up if I didn’t just LOOOOOVE it? Can everybody see? I’m holding it out at arms length and waving it back and forth just to make sure all the cameras know, I want then to get a good shot of it. I will shortly give it to an aide and be taken home in my limo, at which point I will forget the Bible exists because my brain is turning to jelly and I’ve lost the concept of object permanence.”)

Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Maybe (on the one hand, Iran didn’t retaliate when we killed their general, but on the other hand we retreated out of Syria, let thousands of ISIS fighters go, and aided the Turks in a Kurdish genocide. The tit-for-tat sanctions against China threatened to crash the global economy, but then the coronavirus came in and did that all by itself, so it’s unclear whether we’ve “failed” or simply “not succeeded.”)

Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Maybe false? (for the same reason as above, it is hard to judge what is or isn’t a success. USMCA is unpopular and small potatoes. The North Korean talks are all show with no substance; Kim will never get rid of his nukes. We’re still caught up in W’s endless wars, and I don’t see an end in sight, so I’d say this is definitely not a success. I have no doubt in my mind the October Surprise is gonna be another bombing in Iran to kill the ayatollah. The Iran War will start on November 3, same day as the election, there will be the first draft since Vietnam, a bunch of POCs will be forced into the military as cannon fodder; it’ll be a bloodbath for both sides)

Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE (Trump is revered as the Second Coming of Christ by his base, but they make up less than 40% of the total country; other Republicans tolerate him at best, and all Democrats hate him. He has never had majority approval, he will never go down with the likes of the universally beloved Washington, Lincoln, and the Roosevelts. The most surprising thing of the last six months has got to be the emergence of the Lincoln Project, a coalition of Republicans who have finally grown spines, guts, and balls to stand up against trump and actively campaign against him. He doesn’t have total party control anymore, the Republicans are eroding, though to be fair the Democrats eroded a long time ago; the Republicans are a crumbling cairn, longstanding but now weakened and in danger of falling over, while the Democrats are a nice gravel walkway that everyone steps on and complains about even though the walkway is a nice addition to the park; it really ties the negative space together, linking the tennis courts with the pull-up bars. I’ve lost the thread of this analogy)

Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE (Joe Biden is the Walter Mondale of Al Gores. Republicans hate him, even though he’s a moderate an would almost certainly try to reach across the aisle to compromise with them. Which is exactly why about half of Democrats don’t really like him; he’s too moderate and would work with Republicans. He’s old and senile, he keeps making gaffe after gaffe after gaffe, and doesn’t seem to know how the game is played anymore. Someone needs to find Grampa a nice home so he can retire and talk to his nurse about how he used to get into fist fights with ne’er-do-wells, “buncha malarkey, I tell ya”)

This gives us, from best to worst:

FALSE

Almost Certainly False

Maybe false

unclear

Maybe

TRUE

Incumbent Trumps needs 8 true to win. Challenger Biden needs 6 false to win.

Biden definitely has 5, he only needs 1 more to claim it, and there are two good keys that are leaning heavily in his favor; trump’s long-term economy is in the tank, and he hasn’t had any victories overseas. Biden has this one in the bag [don’t grow complacent, there’s still plenty of fuckery to be had from here to November]

Trumps would need to flip four keys to win, only one of which leans in his favor, one is unclear, and two are in Biden’s court. The economy is in ruins, he hasn’t set up any real domestic Trump Doctrine, and the military has neither succeeded nor failed in any meaningful way these last four years. He’s going into November with a major disadvantage, perhaps the only time in his life he has ever not had an advantage.

But then again, there’s always the possibility that it could be a 2000/2016 repeat, where Biden wins the popular vote but Trump ekes by with the electoral college victory yet again. This model doesn’t take that into account because the popular vote winner almost always wins the EC too.

Trump is not more popular today than he was 4 years ago. He’s never had majority approval. While his base loves him more now than ever, they represent a minority of voters, and pretty much everyone else hates him. Anyone who was on the fence in 2016 is definitively over the fence in 2020. If he “wins,” it’s not going to be a 1972/1984 blowout, that’s just not gonna happen, too many states hate him too much. It will be very close; I will not rule out the possibility of a 269-269 tie in the electoral college, triggering a contingent election where the House of Representatives has to pick the president. Democrats have a majority in the House right now, but in contingent elections they don’t vote as 435 individuals, they vote as 50 state blocs; even though there are more Democrats than Republicans, they’re packed together into as few states as possible, giving Republicans over 26 stateside majorities, enough to ensure they would pick Trump in a contingent election.

It’s a bullshit system, and I pray it doesn’t come to that.

#allan lichtman #13 keys to the white house #13 keys #white house #election #presidency #2020 election #joe biden #biden #donald trump #trump #biden 2020 #predictions #political

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tvdas · 4 years

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Political Scientist Claes Ryn in The American Conservative

The Declaration of Dr. Navid Keshavarz-Nia on the possibility and the certainty of fraud. Caught with Their Hands in the Cookie Jar, by Jeremy Carl The New York Times on Trump’s Campaign to Subvert the Election https://www.regent.edu/misc/analyzing-american-election-integrity/ https://letsfixstuff.org/2021/10/how-the-2020-election-was-stolen/ Other sources are mentioned in this article:

Election Fraud — Reform This Thing by Tal Bachman

The time has come to completely renovate America's presidential election voting process.

No, I'm not talking about the electoral college. That can stay. Nor does this have anything to do with Biden versus Trump per se (although the ongoing dispute and understandable doubt about who actually won helps support my contention).

All it has to do with is maintaining America's status as an actual representative democracy—a republic—whose citizens determine electoral outcomes by majority votes. Per Lincoln, that was the whole point, after all: government of the people, by the people, and for the people.

For that sort of government to exist in reality, and not just in rhetoric, you need elections whose results citizens can genuinely trust. They need to be legitimate, but also, need to be seen to be legitimate.

What that means is elections characterized by simplicity, intelligibility, uniformity, and voter anonymity, as well as overall transparency, formal and multi-layered scrutability, physical security at voting stations, and real-time and post hoc verifiability of vote counting.

Put all those things together into a system, and you have election integrity. Omit one or more of those things, and you have a system which begins sliding toward unacceptable levels of error and election-changing fraud. At the point where error or fraud produces false outcomes, or can no longer produce the requisite level of confidence in reported outcomes, the system becomes incompatible with representative democracy—meaning that any representative democracy which continues to use it, is ipso facto either degenerating into a non-democratic form of government, or has already completed that transition. That would be true regardless of surface appearances, or what citizens believed.

To put it more plainly, representative democracy requires legitimate elections. As Ol' Blue Eyes once claimed about love and marriage, you can't have one without the other.

You can guess where I'm going. America has done all sorts of things right, but—as Mark Steyn has pointed out many times over the years, most recently on Tucker Carlson Tonight shortly after the election—its presidential election process ain't one of them. It violates nearly all the requirements for electoral integrity and for inspiring confidence in itself. It's no wonder that, as you read this, the president of the United States, his entire legal team, and tens of millions of citizens, believe outcome-changing fraud occurred the night of November 3rd, 2020.

What I mean to say is that even if there wasn't any fraud at all, we'd all still have lots of reasons to suspect there was. That alone is completely unacceptable.

One reason for suspicion is at least one presidential election has been rigged before—election fraud in America is nothing new.

Other reasons include the hundreds upon hundreds of people convicted of voter fraud over the past two decades (virtually all of them Democrats), large-scale electoral dysfunction in other recent races, and even a recent detailed confession from a professional East Coast election-rigger.

But more relevant are the reports of misbehavior on election night: poll watchers barred, ballots re-dated, tens of thousands of votes of mysterious provenance suddenly appearing, improbable-to-the-point-of-impossible statistical anomalies and other oddities, etc., as well as questionable recount behavior.

But the most compelling reason of all is the amply documented vulnerability to manipulation of the computerized voting machines now used so commonly. To what extent these machines were in fact manipulated, in this recent election, I can't say; but again, even if they weren't manipulated at all, their mere existence necessarily casts doubt on the integrity of any reported electoral outcome. For that reason alone, they should be discarded.

Let me just list a few indications of how lousy these machines are.

The day before the election, USA Today investigative reporter Pat Beall published a zinger of a piece detailing a number of disturbing voting machine vulnerabilities. Entitled "Will Your Ballots Be Safe? Computer Experts Sound Warnings on America's Voting Machines", Beall's piece chronicles things like spontaneous vote-switching, the instant disappearance of tens of thousands of votes, and erratic vote registering. That was days before anyone heard Sidney Powell alleging the same things.

Beall's piece is not the only credible account of vulnerabilities in voting machines. The House Administration Committee issued a report in 2018 noting some of the same problems (and, interestingly, pointed to Georgia as one state most vulnerable to computer vote-rigging). A number of other such reports have emerged in recent years, including a 2018 New York Times piece reporting the discovery of voting machines manufactured by Election Systems and Software with remote-access software secretly pre-installed, and—as if that weren't alarming enough—that the machines had a history of reporting vote counts at odds with votes actually cast.

Not that this is new material. Evidence indicating the fraud-friendly nature of computerized voting machines has been out there a long time. As far back as 1974, the US General Accounting Office was warning of serious accuracy and security problems with America's new vote-counting computers. (As for possible vote-tampering culprits, the CIA at least had the decency to admit during the 1975 Church Committee hearings it regularly tampered with vote-counting machines in foreign elections). In 1985, New York Times reporter David Burnham, in an eyebrow-raising piece, reported that the National Security Agency had begun investigating reports of vote-manipulation in voting machines used by a full third of the American electorate.

By the late 1980s, the potential for manipulating computerized voting machines had become even more undeniable—and unnerving. In a magisterial 1988 New Yorker piece on the topic, journalist Ronnie Duggar wrote:

"Some officials concerned with elections think about the unthinkable in their field; namely, the stealing of a Presidential election by computer fraud in the vote-counting in metropolitan areas of key states. Steve White, the chief assistant attorney general of California, said to me last spring in Sacramento, 'It could be done relatively easily by somebody who didn't necessarily have to be all that sophisticated. Given the importance of the national election, sooner or later it will be attempted.'"

Journalist Jonathan Vankin was another early chronicler of electoral computer fraud (taking time to revisit the topic in a 2000 piece, in which he pointed out compelling evidence of serious computer-rigging in Miami-Dade, Dallas, Orange County, and several other locations). A book-length exposé even arrived in 1992 courtesy of James and Kenneth Collier.

And yet here we are, nearly a half century after that first US General Accounting Office warning, still using the same easily manipulable computer systems, which bad actors have almost certainly manipulated before to fix election outcomes; and partly as a result, we're all still wondering if Joe Biden really got 15 million more legitimate votes than Barack Obama did—a gap which must strain the credulity of even the most partisan Democrat (not that they'd mind illicit victory). (We're also now wondering how many of the presidents over the past thirty years won their elections fair and square).

So as I say, it's no wonder that now, half the country suspects fraud; it's because fraud on a huge scale, thanks to the voting machines, remains eminently possible.

As for how to reduce the possibility of voter fraud, the steps are simple. And it's not like they're secret. Nations around the world use them. A functional, trustworthy, election system of integrity would look something like this.

First, it's run by a single-purpose, rigorously impartial, devoutly transparent federal entity overseeing federal elections (about which more below).

Yes, I know we're all sick of the federal Leviathan. I know it already has far too much power. It's just that in this case, we don't have much choice, do we? We're going on well over a century of chronic Democrat Party presidential vote-rigging; and it appears they just ran one of their classic tricks again just a few weeks ago. At some point, pro-America voters have to stop making excuses for why they shouldn't try solutions to these nation-destroying problems, and just try them.

Yes, I know this would require a constitutional amendment. But let's assume for now we could get one of those passed.

Second: The new federal entity—let's call it Elections USA—would then divide the nation into voting districts of equal size for purposes of federal election (that could occur within pre-existing congressional districts). Elections USA would then further subdivide the voting districts into smaller units. Working with the postal service, Elections USA would then draw up a list of voters in each unit and designate a voting station for residents of that particular unit.

Third: In preparation for election day, Elections USA would send out flyers informing households of where to vote. The information would also be made available on the Elections USA website.

Fourth: On election day, voters travel to their designated voting stations: an elementary or high school, a union hall, a community center, whatever.

Each voting station is watched over by police or other security guards.

As voters approach, they join a quick-moving line. At the front, they present two pieces of government issued ID, at least one with a photo. A volunteer finds the voter on her list of voters for that unit. (If they've come to the wrong polling station, they are redirected to the right polling station).

The voter then approaches the voting station in a large, open room, where another volunteer hands him a paper ballot. Picking up the provided pencil, he marks the ballot behind a screen, folds the ballot, and drops into the voting box in full view of the poll clerk and attendant witnesses sitting a few feet away—typically, a few volunteers from political parties who act as "scrutineers", or official observers and verifiers. The voter then leaves. The entire process never takes more than fifteen minutes.

Once polls close, no one is allowed to enter or leave the premises until the vote count is completed.

The poll clerk—still in full view of the scrutineers—dumps the ballots on to a table and sorts them into piles according to the candidate/party voted for. She then counts the votes for each, showing them to the scrutineers as she goes. Once the votes are counted, a supervisor is called over to the table. After verifying that the scrutineers are satisfied with the counting, and resolving any lingering concerns, the supervisor signs off on the count, and the ballots are immediately placed in a special, sealed envelope. The sealed envelope is then stamped, and cannot be opened without subsequent detection.

The ballot count numbers are then phoned into Elections USA, right then and there, again in view of the scrutineers, who verify that the numbers called in match the numbers they witnessed during the count.

Once all the numbers are called in to Elections USA—a process which never takes more than two hours—the supervisor then physically transports the sealed envelopes (each marked with information like Voting Desk #4 at Poll Station #15) to the Elections USA depot, where she hands them over.

The sealed envelopes are then transported to Elections USA employees, who will then verify, and eventually formally certify, that all the numbers called in from each desk of each polling station of each voting district in the country matches the number of actual ballots. In the unlikely event any question arises about accuracy, the ballots can be accessed and counted again.

In a simple process like this, the media will have accurate election results within two hours of the polls closing, and there is virtually no opportunity for fraud. I can attest to that, because I myself have witnessed this exact process in real life quite a few times, and am friendly with several people who volunteer as election workers on election days. What I described is how elections are conducted in Canada, but not only in Canada: an identical or similar process is used in most other English-speaking countries. A few simple security protocols—not least of which is, no computerized voting machines—and your election is as fraud-proof as this mortal realm would ever allow.

When you compare this typical voting procedure to the morass of conflicting voting regulations representing fifty states, many of which—incredibly—do not even require that the voter present identification before voting, and which are being manipulated by the very state party hacks tasked with preventing fraud, you begin to see just how desperately America needs electoral reform. Credible stories of poll watchers being denied access, for example, in any normal country, would be regarded as completely unacceptable, to the point where the votes in that area would be likely thrown out as a matter of course. And yet, that type of chicanery is now so common in the United States, most people take for granted it goes on. That's how far the window of acceptable behavior has moved.

Lastly, I point out the outrageous absurdity of Democrats screaming for four years that Russia hacked the nation's vote-counting machines in 2016, only to suddenly demand—once their salaried goons in mainstream media prematurely declared Biden the victor—that we all instantly fully accept that no hacking or vote manipulation could ever have occurred in the 2020 election...when almost all the machines remained the same.

Trump's currently demanding recounts, and that's great. But America needs more than recounts. It needs something like a constitutional amendment federalizing the federal elections and banning voting machines. It also needs an exhaustive investigation—although by whom, I don't know anymore—to identify just which bad actors have been manipulating those easily manipulable voting machines for the last forty odd years. Given the frame-up jobs we've seen the last four years, I have a few hunches about the culprits—and I don't think they were Russians.

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bigskydreaming · 4 years

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Biden does not have the nomination yet. It is not yet a matter of “a vote for Biden is a vote against Trump, anything else is a vote for Trump.”

And until it is, until either Sanders or Biden has all the delegates they need, peoples’ criticisms of Biden are absolutely relevant. And even should Biden GET the nomination, c’mon guys, there is STILL room to be aware of everything Biden IS and everything about him that needs OPPOSING, even WHILE still opposing Trump. This is not counter-intuitive....if you are against most of what Trump has done, because it is WRONG rather than it is just Trump who did it, and did it in obvious ways, then this is vital, I’d argue, because Biden isn’t going to address a lot of it once in the White House unless people DO keep in mind what is and isn’t likely to still be an issue in a Biden presidency.

This isn’t divisive, this is NECESSARY. If you can’t find a way to hold both truths in your mind: “Trump absolutely needs to be ousted, and opposed, and his works undone,” as well as “Biden has a long history of doing harm in his various seats, and he is the lesser of two evils ONLY in some respects and its important to know what those are because evil is still evil”....that’s something to WORK on, not just “Biden or bust.”

And to be clear, I’m not advocating for “Bernie or bust” either. I’m simply saying: This is all more complicated than accusing people of having brain worms for thinking “Guy who won’t expand health care as much” is the same as “Guy who is killing people.”

Let me be perfectly, 100% clear: If Biden gets the nomination, if it comes down to him or Trump, I am voting for Biden, hands down. But I will be doing so not thinking that Biden is in any way a more moral choice, but because I think the true danger of Trump is in him serving these past years as a rallying point for all the most vocal white supremacist and homophobic and misogynistic elements within our society, allowing them to feel emboldened and having no shame about expressing their hate openly. I think the true danger of Trump’s presidency is how little of it is actually Trump doing anything other than acting as a magnet that draws all focus and trains all eyes on him, even as his cabinet stocked to over-flowing with white-supremacists, antisemitic, homophobic and transphobic and eugenics-advocating assholes go about ACTIVELY advancing agendas of hate behind him while he serves as the catch-all for all opposition.

That absolutely needs to be opposed, and defeated, but fuck this self-defeating nonsense that this means the work will be OVER the second Trump is gone, whenever and however that happens. And I think for as much as people accuse some of us of doing the enemy’s work for them by sowing division and dividing our efforts and how this is doomed to be self-sabotaging and backfire on all of us, I think the same is true of saying things like the only real drawback to Biden is ‘doesn’t want to expand Health Care as much as Sanders whereas he’s otherwise not remotely comparable to Guy Who Is Killing People.”

Because BOTH ARE SELF-DEFEATING. Both set up only ONE THING as a goal or a focus that needs tackling and carries the implicit “and then we can rest” instead of holding up as a goal or focus that both need defeating or plenty of people are still going to die, as they’ve been dying all along.

If you’re going to go with the Devil You Know because he’s also the Lesser Evil of the two Devils You Know....

You still need to know who he is, and who he is is not just guy who won’t expand health care as much and claiming him to be such and nothing more is DANGEROUS.

Vote for Biden if it comes down to him and Trump, yes! But do so in a way that will let you get right back to work opposing all the shit HE prioritizes and stands for, every bit as much as you claim to oppose all the same with Trump!

Stop treating this as an impossible ask. It is not as simple as evil or not evil. It is as simple as making the choice that ensures most people survive....and then from there, actually ensuring that means that the most people survive.

Which can only happen when you keep in mind how Biden will still be dangerous even once Trump is gone, and who will still need protection from him and his administration and policies, even once Trump’s are gone....and especially because there are a number of those policies that Biden, based on his own policies of the past, is not likely to prioritize or even be helpful in getting dismantled.

Any posts responding to this with anything remotely on the lines of “you’re encouraging people not to vote for Biden and thus helping Trump win” will be ignored the same way they ignore that THAT IS NOT WHAT THIS POST IS, OR SAYS, OR WANTS. I am not responsible for your inability to read what this post actually says, or your unwillingness to hold two not actually opposing viewpoints and priorities in your head at the same time. I am being as clear as I possibly can be on what I will be doing if Biden is the nominee, and why, and how none of that makes Biden’s worst flaws or history irrelevant or a distraction from Trump.

First off:

“Won’t expand healthcare that much” IS actively letting people die. GoFundMe’s biggest usage is trying to raise money for people whose health care isn’t keeping them alive and most of those goals are never actually met, and that’s literally killing people.

Please be cognizant of what kind of people are most being killed this way. Ones who have the most trouble MEETING (often) impossible goals. The most marginalized members of society.

If anyone is still framing the health care issue in their own heads as a matter of whether or not they can always pay for their own medical expenses, or will always be able to, please understand this disregards the many people who flat out can’t, and die every day as a result. Homeless people, people kicked out of their homes for being gay or trans or neurodivergent, not having access to quality health care for those reasons or turned away by the specialists they desperately need because the specialists’ only concerns are they can’t afford to pay. Ex-cons who are largely barred access to jobs with good medical benefits, and are largely barred access to the goodwill of random internet strangers willing to shell out some money of their own for their gofundme campaigns. And so on, and so on.

Absolutely the camps and detention facilities are a huge ongoing issue, but its a huge ongoing issue MOST being talked about throughout these entire past four years by a lot of the exact same leftists being accused of taking focus away from the very issues they are doing the most to highlight.

Now onto Biden specifically:

Are Biden’s positions on everything identical to Trump? No, but for starters, Biden wrote the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act, responsible for building more prisons, increasing prison sentences, deploying more cops, and increasing and furthering the exploitation of prison labor, etc.

He’s long been a major proponent of capital punishment, directly leading to the creation of over 60 new capital offenses including murder of federal law enforcement officers. And oh yeah, Biden also voted against limiting appeals and rejecting racial statistics in death penalty appeals.....which would be great if the vast majority of the new death penalty offenses he had a hand in creating - like the murder of police - haven’t been massively disproportionate in who they end up targeting and who ends up charged with and convicted of them:

Like carjackings, acts of terrorism (just hardly ever acts of domestic terrorism aka the mass shootings of white supremacists, antisemites and disgruntled white guys), and the many drug-related offenses that stem from him being known for decades as a ‘drug warrior’ behind many leading efforts in the war on drugs.

Such as how in the 80s he was the head of the Senate Committee responsible for passing most of the most punitive measures against drug users, during the crack epidemic that was largely created to target and make scapegoats of lower class drug users and PoC, whom were at the time denoted as statistically more likely to use crack cocaine than powder cocaine....

And given that Biden himself sponsored and co-wrote the Anti-Drug Abuse Act which specifically and deliberately laid out hugely harsher penalties for crack cocaine use than were received for being convicted of using power cocaine.....aka a particular favorite past-time of rich white guys (including politicians and political staffers)....all during and throughout the crack epidemic Biden and his cohorts happily whipped up public moral outrage about....

This directly makes him and his political career an inciting element in the huge disparities in prison populations, all stemming from this drug warrior’s leading role in a war on drugs he helped get underway and become what it eventually became in the first place. (Please keep in mind he was famously critical of REAGAN for not being strongly enough anti-drug, as well as George H. W. Bush.)

Granted, Biden admitted his role in crafting and enforcing legislation that led to such huge disparities, at least by the time he was asked about such things in the debates of the 2007 Democratic primaries.

But to my knowledge, to this day he has yet to ever similarly walk back his role in things like oh, the Comprehensive Forfeiture Act in 1983. Which directly empowered and has steadily more and more further increased the power of drug enforcement agencies to seize assets of even just those charged with anything from drug possession to intent to distribute. Which in turn, almost always directly affects the ability of defendants to pay for their own defense instead of being limited to the representation of overworked and underpaid public defenders. Not to mention limits their ability to repeatedly avail themselves to the unlimited appeals Biden nominally has always been in favor for.

Or there’s the Illicit Drug Anti-Proliferation Bill which was a bit of shady shitmanship that squeezed through thanks to being attached to an unvetted, unrelated and super fucking vague child protection bill that has often been criticized as overreaching in scope. And this IDAP Bill, despite its superficially stated intentions, has historically most often been used by DEA agents as an intimidation tactic wielded against drug-reform protestors at rallies and other such events.

Biden might never have openly had his support base chanting Build the Wall, but that doesn’t mean he didn’t vote for the Secure Fence Act of 2006, which partially funded the construction of 700 miles of fencing along the Mexican border.

And his stance for over ten years about whether he’d allow sanctuary cities to ignore federal law has been a clear and concise NO, which y’know, given that’s kinda the whole point of sanctuary cities....and given that sanctuary cities have been absolutely CRUCIAL to even attempting to stave off the worst of Trump’s anti-immigration efforts, travel bans, etc.....this may not make him worse than Trump, but I fail to see that particular stance helping all that much even after Trump is gone.

Because Biden might not have put the same efforts into motion as Trump has, had he been the one in office, but I do not for a second believe he will in ANY way make reversing or undoing some of them his priority. All of that is just as likely to be an uphill battle in a Biden presidency. His track record speaks to itself as to how much he’s likely to make anything like abolishing ICE or getting rid of the detention facilities his first order of business - or even second, third, or even tenth....UNLESS PEOPLE FORCE HIM TO MAKE IT THAT, INSTEAD OF JUST TRUSTING THAT HE WILL BECAUSE HE’S NOT TRUMP.

The caveat I have here is that Biden and his inner circle and support base are unlikely to ever be that visibly resistant to repealing Trump’s anti-immigration efforts, or that visibly in favor of what’s happened there, and he isn’t going to campaign on a platform of overt racism.....but that’s kinda the point. He’s never needed to, in order to still do a huge amount of damage to an untold number of lives over the decades, all while being able to claim to be nominally or superficially progressive and use that to advance his own career.

Trump doesn’t care about hiding his racism....and Biden doesn’t try all that hard to either. But he’s always known he doesn’t really have to try all that hard....just to hide it just enough to claim it isn’t there and its nothing worth anyone worrying about or pushing back against. Plausible deniability - made all the easier and all the more plausible by having someone like Trump to point to and know just by doing so people will breathe a sigh of relief because whew, at least he’s not Trump. Not that this is likely a huge comfort to the people killed long before now, due to his prison policies, capital offense expansion, and war on drugs that happen to not be the right kind of drugs, or being snorted in the right form of those drugs, or snorted by the right people.

And putting a face and a claim to things that absolutely none of his actual efforts back up or are even aimed in the same direction as....this is something that extends to pretty much everything else about him.

Yeah, he reversed his stance on voting for DADT and DOMA in years prior, when as Vice President he said he was totally fine with the idea of men marrying men and women marrying women and each enjoying all the same benefits and civil rights and liberties as anyone else. Course, that doesn’t actually reverse how he voted, nor did he actually have anything to do with striking down the results of his and others’ votes as unconstitutional.

And yeah, Biden drafted the Violence Against Women Act, which he’s famously called the most significant piece of legislation he’s crafted throughout his political career and the one he’s most proud of, citing it as the beginning of a ‘historic commitment to women and children victimized by domestic violence and sexual assault.’ Not that it helped Anita Hill that much, nor that he ever seemed all that interested in helping, believing or supporting her, despite whatever he may have claimed a couple years ago at the start of the #MeToo movement or around the Kavanaugh proceedings, when he stated he’d always believed Anita Hill and voted against Clarence Thomas.

(With Thomas of course still a member of the Supreme Court, alongside Kavanaugh now, thanks to Trump. And Thomas still being famously considered one of its most conservative justices. And still someone whose appointment to the Court might not ever have happened had not Biden - the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee overseeing Thomas’ nomination to the court - made the choice to never call forward four female witnesses who’d been waiting in the wings the whole time to testify on Hill’s behalf and speak to her credibility. With this decision of Biden’s only ever being described as the result of a ‘private, compromise deal between Republicans and then-Judiciary Committee Chair Joe Biden,’ after which all four other women’s testimony was deemed irrelevant, and thus a waste of the court’s time.

And sure, Biden as of just last year supports repealing the Hyde Amendment, that he’s only supported since as far back as ‘76. The Hyde Amendment, of course, blocks federal funding from being used to pay for an abortion except in the specific provision of an abortion being needed to save the woman’s life, or when the pregnancy is the result of incest or rape. Of course, even through all those decades that Biden did support the Hyde Amendment, he pretty famously never felt it went far enough, and thought it shouldn’t include a provision allowing for federal funds to be used to pay for an abortion that stemmed from incest or rape. But that doesn’t speak to his personality or priorities either, obviously, since he took it back (while preparing to hopefully run against pussy-grabbing Trump).

And Biden’s not as interested in giving billionaires tax cuts as Trump is, for instance, since he was always against even George W. Bush’s tax cuts for Americans who made more than one million dollars a year. He was always of the belief that this money should then be put in a dedicated Homeland Security and Public Safety Trust Fund, to invest specifically in increased law enforcement. Joey does love him some cops.

And Biden’s not quite as likely to go to war compared to how often Trump seems to have us poised on the brink of it. Biden only favored sending American troops to Darfur, is a self-described Zionist who has defended various acts of aggression by the Israeli army against Palestinians, and was of the opinion that the biggest problem with our involvement in the Syrian Civil War was that Europe didn’t trust we had a plan there.

Of course, much like with numerous other stances, its not like there’s not plenty to point to as proof Biden’s invested in keeping us out of any international conflicts. For instance, he’s been a longterm advocate for ‘hard-headed diplomacy’ against Iran that included pushing for coordinated international sanctions against them...except then he voted against a measure to declare the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization, said war with Iran wouldn’t just be a mistake, it’d be a disaster, and threatened to personally begin impeachment proceedings against George W. Bush if he attempted to start a war with Iran. This was in December of 2007. Course, then in September 2008, he said that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps was a terrorist organization and that the Bush administration already had the power and right to declare them as such, soooo......hmm.

And Biden did vote against the first Gulf War in 1990. Then supported the use of force against Iraq in 1998 and expressed a commitment to taking down Hussein, even if it meant being in it for the long haul....which as Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in 2002, he ratified by voting to authorize war against Iraq, going on record as firmly believing that Hussein possessed chemical and biological weapons and was seeking nuclear weapons.

Then again, in 2006, Biden did go on to say that the original authorization for going to war with Iraq had been a mistake that was due to Bush “using his congressional authority unwisely” (and that Biden had no role in unwisely helping him obtain), and that there were no stockpiled weapons in Iraq and likely never had been.

Which Biden then followed up in 2008 by saying in his opinion the real mistake had been in labeling Iraq the focus of the War on Terror, instead of Afghanistan, which he believed was really the focus all along, and that we should leave Iraq....and shift our focus fully back there. Because see, the problem was the war in Iraq was a war of choice, whereas the war in Afghanistan was a war of necessity.

And he did have this to say in 2011 about getting involved in the conflict in Libya: "NATO got it right. In this case, America spent $2 billion and didn't lose a single life. This is more the prescription for how to deal with the world as we go forward than it has in the past."

Course, five years later in 2016, in an interview with Charlie Rose, Biden stated he was "strongly against going to Libya" due to the instability it would cause within the country. He said, "My question was, 'OK, tell me what happens.' He's gone. What happens? Doesn't the country disintegrate? What happens then? Doesn't it become a place where it becomes a petri dish for the growth of extremism? And it has."

And then there’s his stances on North Korea...and Russia...and Central America....and Cuba.....all of which can be summed up as “that’s Joe Biden’s hot take on this issue, tune back in next week where he plays devil’s advocate with himself and argues the exact opposite.”

So yeah, all of that and more is who Biden is and always has been. Do not buy into him being someone who has grown and changed, because he’s more recently said the right things - especially as opposed to Trump. Biden has ALWAYS said the right things for the time he’s saying them at.....and history has always shown him willing to say the exact opposite, as soon as its more to his advantage to change his tune to that instead.

He is not the lesser of two evils, IMO, he is just the less overt of two evils. But make no mistake.....I can not tell anyone what to do, nor am I trying to, ultimately, beyond just asking people to BE AWARE of things like this. I can only really tell you what I’m going to do, and if Biden gets the nomination, I AM going to vote for him, not just to get rid of Trump....but everyone Trump brought with him, and the way Trump’s spent four years assuring every hateful piece of shit in America that they are not alone in their hate, and they have presidential approval.

I am simply ALSO saying, at the same time, that I do believe that even a Biden presidency can help push back against this, by virtue of at least being the American people saying We Do Not Support Trump or Want Him Back in enough quantities as to shame at least some of the more hateful and cowardly elements of our society back into silence.....

But that even while doing so, it IMO will remain MORE CRUCIAL THAN EVER to keep in mind.....none of those people or their hate simply sprang into being when Trump took office. They were here all along, and just because BEFORE Trump many of them weren’t brave enough to be seen out of the shadows, doesn’t mean that politicians like Joe Biden haven’t seen them and been fine with them and even agreeing with them and catering to them in various ways all along. Its just, unlike Trump, Biden cares too much about being seen as doing and saying the right things, the progressive things, to do any of those dealings openly, speak to any of those elements directly. But that’s never meant he’s above dealing with them, or profiting from their support.

So elect Biden if that’s what we have to do, even if only because his desire to be seen as progressive is at least a lever to ply between him and such elements of our society, where no such lever exists between Trump and them at all.

But it needs to be remembered that such a lever is only as effective as WE MAKE USE OF IT, AND FORCE HIM TO CATER MORE TO ACTUAL PROGRESSIVE PUBLIC OPINION RATHER THAN ALLOW HIM THE TIME AND ENERGY TO BE TWO-FACED THE MOMENTS OUR BACKS ARE TURNED.

And that if we do not keep this in mind, the latter is very much something Biden will do, just as he has done it countless times before.

AND ALSO PLEASE KEEP IN MIND:

HE STILL IS NOT THE NOMINEE YET, AND UNTIL HE IS STOP TAKING IT FOR GRANTED.

There is a marked difference between preparing for less than your preferred scenarios, and taking for granted that you might as well go ahead and settle for them already.

Too much of the latter has too much to do with the current state of our country, SO WHAT IF WE STOPPED DOING IT.

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paulwalltran · 4 years

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Dungeons and Dragons Loneliness

Another interview with lofi music. Today was a pretty shitty day, alot on my mind. Here to unload.

Today’s mood: Fuck it all...

It’s a mad addiction, a horrendous one. It’s all I think about, it’s all I want to talk about. Or almost anything fantasy related. I’ve recently gotten a little closer with one of my co workers. Delerner Banks, everyone calls him Del. He’s always in the tunnel, and always brings warhammer books to read and do work (whatever it is he’s working on.) We talk about fantasy related things all the time, and sometimes we bounce ideas off each other, feeling out our thoughts of settings and lore. Talking to him about some fantasy before leaving work made me feel alot better. The loneliness inside has been eating at me.

I know it’s salt, I know its jealousy, that I’m mad at my friends. They been hanging out more without me, playing cards and shit. Its not a passion of mine, its fun sometimes, but its still not me. Its what they bond over, its what they do together, and that’s what theyre into. If I had to guess, they’re okay with Dungeons and Dragons, but even my best friend said that I take it too serious. Its fallen out of their favor, it eats up a lot of time, and they each have their version of what a fun campaign would be like. In me, I said to myself, “Fine, fuck it. I’ll have to assemble another crew to play with.” Tough situation then isn’t it? Wanting to play a social game that needs bodies, during an age where social gatherings are frowned upon, because they carry a potential to spread a virus... Still, this is what I want to do. I want a group of friends, who share the same passion I do. My current friends must think ill of me, they may just want to hang out. They think that if they come hang with me, I’ll want a game of DnD without a doubt. They just want to chill and kick it, they don’t want to roll dice. But ask me once and I’ll tell you yes twice, to playing DnD.

I love it with all my heart, all of the contents and materials are here, ready to play. No extra investments, no money needed to be spent, we can get going off of nothing like we did back then. A table top roleplaying game, we started with cardboard and lego figures, and just two books to share. But there was fun to be had, and a few heated sessions. But fun it was, the more we played the deeper i grew fond of the game. I’m even willing to experiment with other systems if I have someone to guide me. With cards, you gotta constantly update your arsenal to keep up with the meta, and let’s be real, not playing anything remotely close to meta isn’t as fun. Different formats allow different decks, and to keep current you gotta keep up. I dont have the fundings for it, I dont have the luck. I would rather buy a module that’ll last for years, versus a pack of cards. I have two books that have skyrocketed in value, cards go up and down like stocks. But thats the appeal I suppose, I don’t care for it though.

Back to the thing at hand, I’m in their group chat as they make plans. I can’t be there for all that. But fuck it, that’s all Im going to say. Fuck it, on repeat, until its engraved into my head. Pride is getting the best of me, I refused to be denied again. If it’s not something they want to do, so be it, I need to look out for me in the end. I must muster up the courage to start playing online again, the first one wasn’t bad, but it fell apart. I need to get the courage to be social, and get over the fear that everyone expects you to be a pro player. I’m scared going into this green still, roll20 isn’t my forte. But if I want to play DnD, this seems to be my only option. It may fulfill my wish, to find friends who are just as passionate as I. My other friends, they’re over on the other side. Its fine, it truly is, they have one another, and I need to be strong. I need to find the strength in this loneliness, even though its tearing me apart. My circle becomes smaller, thats just the way of the world. Adapt to survive, be formless like water...

Dungeons and Dragons, my greatest escape. I can be anybody, and do things I normally can’t. I can clobber up bad guys, indecent folk, and finesse my way out of punishment from the law. I can save a village, a town, a kingdom, when I can hardly save myself. I can fly, cast spells, break locks, imagination is my only limit. I can hoard and amass vast amounts of riches, I myself can even become a dragon. I don’t have to be me, although a bit of me resides in everyone I’ve made before. I can never truly separate myself, from those Ive breathed life into. For hours on end, I can go anywhere, do anything, I melt into the world thats placed before me.

Because the reality is that I’m practically shit, and nobody. The world is fucked up and jacked up and spiraling down the drain. I’m mentally fucked and my physicality is pretty much the same. I’m stuck in place when the world is demanding me to change. I lost with no real direction. No map in hand, no guide, and I’m scared out of my mind. I don’t know whether to trust the process or commit suicide. Im not sure where I’ll end up, if it’s good or bad. Im struggling, I’m suffering, and there seems to be no end. I could say I’m trying, but I would be lying, if I had to look at the brighter side. The positive things in life are so hard to identify. But my emotions are raw and hit hard, slamming against the walls in my skull. Demanding me to give them attention...and attention I give them, as they tear me up. Like being pulled at by the limbs, drawn and quartered is the method it seems like today. I was thinking that I couldn’t drink forever, my body would eventually reject. But what if I drank energy drinks on end, a heart attack to get me out of this place. I can down those all day long, so whats stopping me from taking that way out of it? Less grotesque and violent, it’ll probably be painful as hell. An organ seizing up, as the body ceases the function. I get said thinking about it sometimes, but one day, enough will be enough. But damn that lady...damn her for speaking those words... Tomorrow. If nothing is better by tomorrow, then do as you may. But sleep it off, tomorrow is another day.

It’s not verbatim, but its the gist. Just wait for tomorrow, and hopefully things will change. The choice is still mine to make, and something in me pushes me forward, keeps me going on. Sometimes I think about who I’m leaving behind, and maybe how much it’ll hurt. The evil darkness inside me says that they’ll get over it, they have to, and time doesn’t wait. I won’t be immortalized, I’ll simply end up a statistic. That maybe itll be a few years the sadness remains fresh, but wounds always heal. Discrediting my actual existence, and any form of relations. Like I wouldn’t have made any actual impressions, people don’t weep for me now. People kind of forget I exist already, what makes me think they won’t after I’m gone?

I think about my folks, my grandma, my girlfriend, my second family, and other close dear friends. I think about how many last will letters I would have to put out there, before I call for the curtains. Sometimes, I say I will start writing them, but they give me pause. I end up not wanting to leave this world, after pouring out my heart. Because I don’t want to leave any questions behind for people who matter, I want them to know how I felt before I passed. I want to leave with them apart of me, so they would never forget.

Still it doesn’t change, shit is rough as of lately, work has been eating me up. I feel like Im never hundred percent, and me back on gaming is making it worst. I’ve gotten back onto Elder Scrolls Skyrim, its been my virtual version of DnD. Waiting for the Outer World Expansion, so I can get addicted to that again. All I want to do is play Dungeons and Dragons, the question is how do I make that into a living? I think being a Matthew Mercer is one in a million, I don’t think I’m that great. I’m willing to learn, grow, evolve because it is my passion, but I’m always scared of making mistakes. To be one of the greater Dungeon Masters, to be THE Wizards of the Coast Dungeon Master, it may possibly be the dream. To eat, sleep, breathe, Dee en Dee. My obsession isn’t that crazy though, I’m still behind on the lore of creatures and settings, I haven’t studied at all. But with the right drive and motivation, I would, especially with something as real as a legit group.

Enthusiastic players, who show up every week, bi weekly, once every month even, to play this fantastic game. Group of chill folks who is willing to take the Dungeon Master Mantle with I get burned out and have the desire to be in the player seat. One of those is the driving force, they make me want to plan. They make me want to make the world, the style, everything in general better, with the constructive feedback. I mean it’s been so long as I was a player in a campaign until the end, I’m beginning to think paying for a Dungeon Master wouldn’t be so bad. Once a month? A couple of hours? I mean I’m thinking like seven USD per hour? Eight isn’t bad, but after that it becomes a questionable amount. It repeats in my head, “No DnD is better than Bad DnD”, this much is probably still true. I say still because I still might want at least one session with said game, so I can at least say it was the worst after having attempt it, rolling something. Ha ha, I kid myself, I’m lying because I know the rage would be all to real and caution is my game most of the time. But I mean, I just might have to start exploring the idea, I was definitely going to ask on FaceBook if any Roll20 games was recruiting a newbie.

Alas, today won’t be the last time I speak on the matter, Dungeons and Dragons haunt me everyday. I stare at minis, I stare at the upcoming books and modules, and I watch youtube where they tell RPG Horror Stories, Its become a huge part of my life, such as dancing once was. It almost links right into my earliest talents...writing. I love to write, just like I’m doing now. Im fairly decent at the writing game if I must say. Hey, real life failed Bard here, I should make one who always ends up playing big bro, and end up being friendzoned by all his interests. Im short, so Halfling is very true. Am I charismatic? Who knows, I can’t say for sure. But yes, I feel like this is what I need, a solid weekly game, maybe once every two weeks, hell, once every month would still be great. Something to look forward to the very least, in this life of routine and mundane. Something to look forward to for me, something that’s my own. Something I don’t need my closer friends to be apart of, since they’re not interested anyhow. I’m really talking shit because I’m hella salty, but at least I’m being upfront. Get it all out now, before the typing is done.

It’s been a productive session, I may have to attribute it to Lofi it seems. The Lofi Hip Hop Radio on YouTube, also found on Spotify. Some tracks still strike me deep in the chest, giving me horrible flash backs and feeling in my chest. Others keep me going, forward, almost propelling. I’m currently training myself to be accustomed to the sounds, because I at first was very scared. That it would just transport me to a dark place and keep me there. I’ve been trying to confront my feelings more with this music, I think I felt better after last session like this. The more I faced myself, the better I became. Yes, I most definitely referenced Persona 4, another amazing and loved title because of the message it portrays. I always wondered what my shadow self would look like, and what they would say. But eh another time, I’m about to start rambling again. I have to conclude here, before I get off topic.

Until next time Tumblr...

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sebthesnipe · 4 years

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The Dreamer by Whatwashernameagain an Analysis? Chapter 2! Part 1

All portions:

Chapter 1: Part 1 // Part 2 // Part 3 // Part 4

Chapter 2: Part 1 // Part 2 // Part 3 // Part 4

The Dreamer

@whatwashernameagain

Guys! We finally made it to Chapter 2!!!! Prepare for the feelz!

As always, Spoilers under cut.

So… Lets recap what we know about Roman before we dig too deep into Chapter 2… We know that Roman is overzealous, hopeful to the point of naivety, innocent, sassy, playful/teasing, endearing, misguided and moral. He sees the good in everyone (especially Logan). Roman cares for each person individually, while Logan cares more for humanity as a whole. Lastly, Roman is pretty much the embodiment of hope for Logan and maybe the world. No pressure.

Okay… That’s pretty much what we know about Roman’s personality thus far… and he’s only been mentioned a few times… Not bad, not bad. Let’s get to it!

Eva wastes no time jumping right into Roman’s back story, though I’ll admit the first time I read this it gave me a bit of whiplash. We did just come out of a very dramatic scene, after all. Still as usual there is a lot to be said in the first para. First off, drawing the reader in within the first few lines is always a great idea and she manages it with; “Young Roman was shaking with righteous anger. How dare this – this fiend targeted the company of his father?” (Whatwashernameagain). This should send us into a whirlwind of emotions. We learn a lot about Roman and Roman’s father with these two sentences. First off, we see that Roman is very quick with his emotions which is not surprising at all, judging from what we have learned about him. However, when he uses the word ‘fiend’ in italics the inflection nods towards his overzealous nature which honestly warms my heart a bit. Once again, Eva is very strategic with her italics and beautifully so. We can assume that this ‘fiend’ is none other than one ‘Utilitarianist’ judging from the context of the previous chapter and the rivalry that we are already familiar with. But this begs the question: Why would Logan target Roman’s father unless he is a bad man? Well, I’d say the answer is in the question… But Roman obviously doesn’t believe that.

“He was the hardest working man in the world! His idol, his hero! He was donating to charity, pursuing a career in politics to support the attempts of the republican party to protect this great country’s safety and now he had to deal with an investigation into the state of his breeding facilities” (Whatwashernameagain).

This makes me… so sad. Roman obviously idolizes his father. He is a young man here, years before The Dreamer and it certainly shows in his naivety and innocence. As children many of us are fed information that our parents wish for us to believe or are simply told in order to stop us from questioning this or that. Some parents do this consciously while most don’t even think about it. It’s like when your parent tells you that its illegal to drive at night with the cab light on… I don’t know if this is going to shock you but its not illegal. At least not here. But their parents no doubt told them that when they were younger to keep them from messing with the light and distracting them; then they grew up believing it and now they tell their children the same thing. Or my mother use to tell me that her first husband died in a car accident because she didn’t want me to know she was divorced… Turns out he lives in Cali with a wife and three kids… but questioning her about him hurt her so she made up a lie to protect herself and me. Its not surprising that poor innocent Roman would be fed similar lies to help idolize his father.

The thing is… there comes a point in time in every adult’s life that they look at their parent and reality hits them so hard in the face they stumble. The person you thought your mom or dad was isn’t exactly who they are. For example, I idolized my own father and I of course still love him very very much; but growing up I thought he had the answer to everything and was an outstanding person. He had very few flaws (mostly just promiscuity)… Then about the time I turned twenty-four I watched as he went into a rage about abortions and how pro-choicers are idiots when most of them are pro-life but ‘just want attention’. It took me by surprise and when I showed him the statistics that the majority of ‘pro-life’ and ‘pro-choice’ both agreed that there should be exceptions to most abortion issues (“Abortion”). He chose to deny the fact and continued to hate the opposite party simply because they labeled themselves something other than what he labeled himself, despite believing in the same concepts…. I’m getting way off topic… Sorry… I realized in that moment that the man I idolized was an ignorant man who was content with his choice in being ignorant. It was a shock… The image of him I had painted my whole life came crashing down. It was alright of course, we just don’t talk about politics anymore… well… not often anyways. My point is… I’m curious to see when Roman has the same realization that his father is not the man Roman expects him to be… Truth be told; our parents can never live up to their children’s expectations. We set the bar too high and they are only human, doing the best they can… The good ones anyways XP

Again! Getting off topic! Sorry! Back to the analysis….

Roman sees his father as everything he strives to be. His father is a hard worker, who gives to the needy, is charismatic (a politician), a protector. No doubt, Roman was conditioned to see these things; conditioned to believe that this is what a ‘real’ man looks like. A conditioning that most of us have experienced. Girls that don’t dress pretty enough, or don’t like the color pink, or rather play with a football than a barbie; or boys who love pink, enjoy makeup, don’t enjoy sports… I can’t tell you enough how much crap my husband gets because he rather read a book than play football, especially when he was in school (he’s 6’4” and almost 400lbs). Its wrong!!! Here Roman’s father stands, the picture-perfect image of everything Roman is expected to be… of course he’s going to fixate on the good, rather than accepting the bad. Looks like Logan isn’t the only one in denial.

This denial is cemented when Roman begins to talk about the ‘caramel colored Highland cow’ that his father had given him when he was twelve. Roman uses this as an example of how his father cares so deeply for animals…. -sigh- My poor baby… All of this is an indication of unconscious rationalization. Yup, you guessed it I’m jumping back into psychoanalysis and Freud. YAY! Rationalization is when an individual avoids feelings of displeasure by explaining their own loses and failures as someone else’s fault (Rivkin, Julie). In this case, Roman isn’t even aware that he is doing it; hence the denial. Instead of subconsciously accepting the fact that these investigations could be in the right he chooses to blame the investigation of victim blaming…. Well, the investigations and The Utilitarianist.

Though Roman’s us of terms such as ‘hard-working Americans,’ ‘terrorist’ and ‘gross injustice’ in the next few paragraphs really boldens the image that Roman eventually grows into; the one we saw in Chapter 1. As if Roman should be wearing the stars and stripes on his cape, flapping in the wind behind him. A whole-hearted apple pie American! These terms are a direct parallel to a lot of the Republican campaigns throughout the last few years. Terms like this tend to be used to sew discontent and fear into people, making them easily controllable. Honestly, it’s a great symbolism on how America’s masses are being persuaded to follow the path of anger and certain politicians that I will not name. Roman, here is the picture-perfect representation of America, his father a Republican extremist (like many politicians lately) who has fed him so many lies and promises… provided pretty things to satisfy him temporary and allow him to do as he pleases without any consequence to himself. Sound familiar?

**Personal note: I have nothing against the Republican party. I agree with the platform on a few issues as well as with the Democratic platform. However, anything to its extreme is a bad thing. Thank you for coming to my Tedtalk.

“Roman could not stand for this! It was gross injustice! He wanted to help, to support his father and show him that he could trust him! He was almost twenty now – a man – and it was time he finally managed to prove himself!” (Whatwashernameagain).

Within the same paragraph we see Roman’s need to win his father’s approval. We also see the societal gender norm of being ‘a man’ once more. There is a lot to unpack here. Roman wants to show his father that he can ‘trust him.’ Which wouldn’t be something a normal person would be concerned about unless there was a sense of past abuse; which judging by the rationalization is no doubt the case. This implies that Roman has always been informed that he’s not good enough, or that he is incompetent. This small sentence shows us a side of Roman that we have yet to see… his insecurity. Sure, as The Dreamer he hides it well… He must, he’s the hope and dreams of the world, he can’t afford insecurities. But deep down he is just a child wanting his father’s approval. He wants to be needed, needs to be accepted. He wants to prove to this man that he’s not worthless… Hmm… Kinda sounds like a certain villain we know doesn’t it? Actually, Logan and Roman have a lot more in common here than meets the eye. Imagine what Roman feels here… The desperation, the loneliness. Perhaps he feels as if there is no one else in the world that could possibly understand how he feels. He is no doubt surrounded by staff but when it comes down to it, he is just as alone as Logan is. Both using their pain to change the world; both defining themselves by the work that they do… by their usefulness. Once again, Roman focusing on the individual (his father) while Logan focuses on the masses. He and Logan share the same goal, the same hurtles, and the same pain… and yet somehow ended up on opposite sides of the coin…

We see more of Roman’s insecurities in the next paragraph, underlining the emotion; proving to the reader that it runs far deeper than we would first assume. He states that he tends to ‘ask the wrong question’ and makes ‘stupid suggestions’. However, the questions he asks are regarding the wages of the workers, and the suggestions involve the wellbeing of animals. The dimension this contrast provides really rounds out Roman’s character. As a reader we see that these questions are anything but wrong and the suggestions are far from stupid, but we are a mute onlooker that can do nothing to change the scene unfolding before us. These words paint Roman’s heart as much as his pain. We see his concern for his father’s employees and the animals as well. We see that he cares for every living being, bringing up back to the fact that he focuses on the individual, reinforcing this concept. At the same time, he doesn’t see it himself. I’ve learned early on in life that if you are told the same thing over and over in your life time by someone you look up to… you are bound to believe it and the best and worst thing about belief is that once you have it… its hard to let go.

“Shame rose into Roman’s cheeks as he remembered his silly question about fencing in a meadow for their calves in their Laredo facility to play in with their mothers. He’d just remembered how much Nugget had always enjoyed jumping around with them. Of course, he should have known they needed to be separated from their mothers after the first day to avoid losing the milk they sold. It was necessary, he guessed. So, they’d said” (Whatwashernameagain).

So, they’d said… -sigh- Three little words and yet… so much pain. I don’t really need to explain the whole being told something repeatedly etc etc etc. Because I just did; but the fact that Eva ends the paragraph so simply is so elegantly impactful… I just… wanted to bring attention to it.

It also serves to point out that despite the fact that Roman rationalizes his father’s mistreatments and dirty deeds, he has his doubts. “It was necessary, he guessed.” Implies that Roman doesn’t truly believe this despite what he’d been told (along with the ‘so they’d said’). It adds even more depth to the man because while we are looking at a young Roman with no self-confidence he knows right from wrong. At least, deep down he does. It is the environment around him that is forcing this sense of morality to be buried deep deep down to the point to he can hardly recognize it… but its there. This also makes for some great foreshadowing. The small rebellion of nothing but a seed of a thought will no doubt grow into more.

Tangent: People always talk about how changing your thoughts are a sure-fire way to change your life and it is true. In fact, there is scientific research to prove it. No, I’m not talking about some kind of poll or mental screening. It’s much bigger than that. Dr. Masaru Emoto, a Japanese scientist and doctor of alternative medicine, conducted an experiment to try and discover how our thoughts can physically affect the world around us (“Water”). He took samples of water and exposed them to written and spoken words and music to see how thoughts and feelings affect physical reality (“Water”). Dr. Masaru Emoto discovered that crystals formed in frozen water reveal changes when specific, concentrated thoughts are directed towards them such as ‘love’, ‘thank you’, ‘I hate you’ (“Water”). The findings were unbelievable especially when you consider the fact that 90% of our bodies are made of water. Water that changes in reaction to thoughts. The implications of this research create a new awareness of how we can positively impact the earth and our personal health (“Water”). Dr. Emoto has been called to lecture around the world as a result and has conducted live experiments both in Japan and Europe as well as in the US to show how indeed our thoughts, attitudes, and emotions as humans deeply impact the environment (“Water”). I learned this many years ago watching the documentary ‘What the Bleep Do We Know?’ which I highly recommend… But if you would like to watch the short clip on water molecules and thoughts you can find it here.

I bring it up because Roman’s rebellious thoughts have a far more drastic impact than he probably assumes. We shape ourselves to our thoughts… Which only intensifies the foreshadowing here.

Once again, in the next para we see Roman’s rationalization in full swing as he talks about his father having a difficult time with him. We also see the reinforcement of social norms when it comes to gender: ‘he lacked a sense of ruthlessness a strong man needed to improve the world’, ‘he was a bad hunter, had the wrong interests’, ‘spoke too softly or loudly’ (Whatwashernameagain). I’m not going to go into it too much because I’ve already touched on the ridiculousness of this… and because forcing social gender norms onto someone like this piss me off like no other and I’m not turning this into a big rant and pulling it away from Eva’s amazing work! I’ll just say that its wrong to assume what it means to be a man or a woman… why isn’t just being a person enough?! and leave it at that. We also see more of Roman’s idolization of his father; his need for approval and his distaste for Logan and his so-called victim-blaming (which is rationalization once more).

The sudden shift from such a somber tone to the next paragraph proves to be refreshing and provides Roman with a small burst of passion we know and love! Eva writes: “Roman had one thing going he was good at, though. He was strong, brave and determined. Someone needed to put a stop to this renegade liberal, and it might as well be him. It wasn’t like all the other things he’d tried and failed at. This time, he felt a calling to fight the war of the righteous” (Whatwashernameagain)!

This provides us with a small glimpse of The Dreamer we’ve come to know in Chapter 1. Roman may not have confidence in himself but the image of who he wants to be is another story. For those of you who don’t know I worked in Law Enforcement for six years and its things like this that remind me of some of the good parts of the job. Roman is relatable here to be. I’ve known a lot of officers who are very different outside of the uniform, myself included. We have insecurities, weaknesses, ticks, that all seem to fade away when we put on that uniform. You become a different person, a stronger person; someone you look up to… and looking up to yourself is an amazing feeling… its like your indestructible… you can do anything! Officer Liz and the Liz writing this analysis are two different people. Yes, we share the same experiences and likes and dislikes but… I’m just a regular person, staying up too late, worried about laundry and dishes… while she… she’s a hero who protects everyone, always has a solution, and never lets her emotions get the better of her. Roman is getting his first taste of the high that comes with the alter ego. He sees the Dreamer in that instance, though he refers to himself because in a way they are the same person… The difference is, is that The Dreamer has already won his father’s approval and pride… Roman has not.

*******

I will have to end it there, friends. It is way past my bed time, and I have to be up in a few hours for work. Thank you for joining me though and I hope to see you in Part 2!

“Abortion.” Gallup.com, Gallup, 10 Nov. 2019, https://news.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx.

Rivkin, Julie. Literary Theory: a Practical Introduction. Wiley-Blackwell, 2017.

“Water.” What the Bleep Do We Know!?, https://whatthebleep.com/water-crystals/.

Whatwashernameagain. “The Dreamer - Chapter 2.” Hello Guys Gals And Non Binary Friends, 8 Sept. 2019, https://whatwashernameagain.tumblr.com/post/189407228487/the-dreamer-chapter-2?is_related_post=1.

#The dreamer #villain!logan #hero!roman #sanders sides #logince #logan sanders #roman sanders #logan/roman #roman/logan #analysis #reaction #fanfiction #Whatwashernameagain

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monstersandmenrp · 4 years

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THE SCULPTOR

Antony Rivera | 48 | Moderate | Freelance Political and Economic Consultant

Born in Dallas, Texas, Antony Rivera is the son of Emiliano Rivera, a pediatric oncologist and Elena Rivera, a stay-at-home mother. He is the middle child between two sisters, Teresa and Catherine. The Rivera family was raised Roman Catholic, though as he grew older Antony’s views shifted more towards relaxed Christianity bordering on agnosticism. Although he admired his father greatly, especially the work he did, his childhood saw him grow more close to his mother— who was frankly around much more often. To gain his father’s attention, Antony embodied the role of the classic overachiever who foresaw a career in medicine (similar to his sisters). He attended both middle school and high school at Bishop Dunne Catholic School where he excelled especially in mathematics, statistics, and physics. But between his father’s long hours and favoritism of his daughters, Antony quickly realized following in Emiliano’s footsteps was the surest way to remain in his father’s rearview forever. Struggling with the adolescent feeling of isolation, his father’s lack of presence and his own ambition— Antony descended more and more into his mathematical studies. Why? Because math makes sense. There are rules, laws and certainty. If you do things this way, you’re always guaranteed this outcome. Numbers and data provided the recognition that he craved, winning the national MATHCOUNTS competition in both the seventh and eighth grade for the state of Texas. Antony also completed the American Mathematics Competitions exams in grade 8, 10 and 12 as well as the American Invitational Mathematics Examination and United States of America Mathematics Olympiad. The summer after he graduated from high school, Antony completed the Mathematical Olympiad Summer Program and represented the United States in the International Mathematical Olympiad, bringing home a gold medal.

He took a break from political campaigns, and took a position with AXA Advisors in Austin, where he managed and supervised 30 branch compliance professionals across 20 branches covering the western United States. Meanwhile, Antony applied to Harvard and was accepted into the Business Economics doctorate program in 1999. Bill de Blasio, the manager for Hilary Clinton’s first senatorial campaign, personally visited Antony in Massachusetts to inquire about an economic strategy with specific constituency groups for the campaign. Antony recommended that Clinton visit the 62 counties in the state of New York in a series of intimate town halls, with special emphasis on Republican regions. Antony personally drafted Clinton’s spoken economic situation to include tax credits that rewarded job creation and business investment in the IT sector. Clinton won the election in November, 2000 and cites Antony in her 2003 autobiography: “God’s question will be: what did you do with the time and talents I gave you? Antony Rivera and Bill de Blasio won the First Lady a Senatorial seat”. He completed his doctorate in 2004, specializing in econometrics and finance. He accepted a position with NERA Economic Consulting and moved to Washington, D.C. In 2006, Antony served as the campaign manager for Clinton’s senatorial reelection. She won the election with 67% of the vote, carrying all but four of New York’s sixty-two counties. Both manager and candidate were criticized for the use of her campaign funding, but Antony maintained that Clinton wanted the contest to appear as one-sided as possible. Clinton subsequently transferred some of her senate funds toward her presidential campaign, of which Antony vehemently disagreed. Understanding that Clinton was to be unsuccessful in securing the nomination— because “numbers don’t lie”— he declined her offer to be her presidential campaign manager.

Instead, Antony was the deputy campaign manager for Barack Obama’s successful 2008 presidential campaign. Although his superior received the credit, it was Antony’s overall strategy that secured Obama the Democratic Party nomination: focus on the first caucus in Iowa and maximize the number of pledged delegates, versus focusing on the states with primaries and the overall popular vote. First, because popularity isn’t enough to secure an election, and second, the strategy conveyed the message that the candidate was concerned for the votes of both large and small states. Acquiring the majority of the delegates was only a stepping stone, however, to Antony’s plan of securing the superdelegates for the Democratic nomination with voter pressure. Furthermore, he exercised intense discipline over communications. Antony was in charge of controlling leaks and releasing information throughout the campaign on its terms; his tight reign insured the campaign avoided publicly aired grievances and squabbles among staff members. Antony returned to economic consulting, before he was approached about being campaign manager for Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign. The presence of his financial savviness was officially let loose, as the Obama campaign broke new records in finance and fundraising; raising $690 million and surpassing even the 2008 presidential campaign. Both campaigns were criticized for issuing mostly negative ads, and The Washington Post described both Antony and the campaign as “early and relentless”. No matter the criticism, the campaign was successful— which is all that ultimately matters.

The 2016 election was a beast for which he has no personal comment from his lack of involvement. He understood that Theresa Wright would be successful so long as her manager wasn’t a complete buffoon. Another prediction that served as remarkably accurate. What he couldn’t have predicted, however, was her assassination on live television. That’s because the situation was a complete outlier, a random factor on the outside looking in— and Antony doesn’t have business with randomness and outliers. He goes out of his way to avoid them, which is why he now well knows that a career in medicine would have been disastrous for him. And being applauded for avoiding disaster, he is actually attributed to being an almost good luck charm— Antony has never served on an unsuccessful campaign. With that comes a reassurance that is both personal and professional. Antony is now the lead analyst for the world renowned economic consulting firm NERA, but also operates his own political consulting firm in the private sector. People come to him for advice, expertise: say what he tells you to say, leak what he tells you to leak, and do what he tells you to do and you’ll succeed. Why? Because he’s done it all before and he’s always come out on top. Personal preference, he would like to see the Democrats win. In his opinion, the Disarmament Act was the first real victory for the liberal party in quite a while— having gotten used to cowering in the corner of the uncompromising conservatives. But preference is abandoned when it comes to professionalism and payroll. All is fair in love and war, or is it? He just may or may not reserve the best ideas for his favored.

Click here to read Antony’s full biography.

#original rp #lsrp #bio rp #mature rp #politics rp #antony rivera #taken

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sciencenewsforstudents · 5 years

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The issue of race has been a big topic in the news throughout much of the world over the past few years. In the United States, the issue has really taken off since the start of the U.S. presidential campaign in 2015. In the weeks since the election, public name-calling and taunts from strangers have spiked even more. One group, the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC), began collecting reports of such events. Within the first 10 days following Donald Trump’s election as president, the group recorded 867 hate incidents. Episodes include taunting people with language, graffiti and hostility. Some hate incidents also can turn violent.

Many cases are clear evidence of racism. That’s a negative attitude toward people of color, usually blacks. But it can include Asians, Latin Americans, Middle Easterners and more. This prejudice is not based on an experience with a particular individual. Rather it’s a bias against people belonging to some particular ethnic group. And what allows racism to go on has been the unpleasant fact that significant swaths of society share this attitude, condone it or refuse to challenge it.

Race is only skin deep. It should not affect who we view as entitled to respect — and our help. CREDIT: Iuaeva/iStockphoto

The incidents described in a new SPLC report “almost certainly represent a small fraction of the actual number” of racist acts, its authors conclude. After all, they note, roughly two out of every three hate crimes go unreported. (That’s based on numbers by the Bureau of Justice Statistics.)

Schools “have been the most common venues for hate incidents,” the November 29 SPLC report finds. And that’s not surprising, it adds. Even before the election, bullying had already become almost epidemic in U.S. schools.

But kids don’t have to take it, scientists say. Indeed, they shouldn’t. Some research actually finds that standing up against such incidents can make people feel better and healthier.

So what can students do?

One: In countering racism and bigotry, make yourself aware that it exists, says Terrence James Roberts. He’s a psychologist who works in Pasadena, Calif. He also confronted stiff racism as an African American teen. Back in the 1950s and ‘60s, some communities were very open in their prejudice against blacks. One high school he attended initially would not let the boy in because of his race.

Sometimes, as in this anti-Trump rally in May 2016, people can join others who have been targeted by racism as a show of support. CREDIT: shakzu /iStockphoto

That was well over a half-century ago. Yet racism still persists. Many people have just learned to hide it, Roberts notes. But it may at times surface, as following Trump’s victory. Unless society accepts that undercurrents of racism still live, Roberts now argues, conditions will not improve.

Contributing to this problem: People in a privileged group might not even realize they enjoy advantages. “It’s like water to a fish,” says Roberts. In other words, people can be so surrounded by racist ideas that they aren’t even aware of them. Roberts encourages all teens to read up on history. “Don’t just take someone’s word” on questions about racism, he says. Instead, he recommends: “Think critically.”

Two: Try to understand how other people see things. “Your world view is influenced by the spaces that you’ve lived in and are a part of,” says Roxanne Donovan. She’s a psychologist at Kennesaw State University in Georgia.

For example, she explains, a white, middle-class person might believe the country’s criminal justice system is fair. And in most cases, that’s what this person might see in day-to-day life. But the opposite might appear true to someone of color living in a poor neighborhood. Crime, police relationships and experiences with the prison system may be very different there.

Think about why you hold certain views. Listen, too, to the views of others. “Part of the reason racism is so entrenched in our society is that we don’t really talk to each other about it,” says Alex Pieterse. He’s a psychologist at the University at Albany in New York.

Three: Think ahead. What would you do if someone targets you because of race, religion, gender or some other factor? Coping skills will vary from one person to another, Roberts says. And strategies will depend on the facts of each case.

For example, Christy is a graduate student in New York who comes from a Caribbean island nation. A few days after Trump’s victory, a man threatened Christy while she was at a gas station. Now she is extra careful whenever she travels. And 10-year-old African-American twins Noah and Nida in Georgia walk away from possible arguments at school that they worry could turn into fights. They learned the hard way that some classmates don’t like them based on the color of their skin.

(By the way, the names of the student victims, here, have been changed to shield their identity.)

Plan what to do, too, if you witness racist behavior towards someone else. If there is a threat of violence, get a teacher or some other responsible adult to step in right away.

Four: If the situation is not violent, speak up, says Donovan. “The most important thing,” she notes, “is not to be a bystander.” After all, she argues, “Silence is support for whatever the act is.”

Consider saying something like: “Hey, that’s out of line.” “Cut it out.” Or, “I can’t believe you’re acting this way. You’ve got to be kidding, right?”

If you witness racism or are the target of such bias, speak up, scientists recommend. Challenging such hurtful incidents may encourage bullies to back down.CREDIT: Cloud-Mine-Amsterdam/iStockphoto

“There’s real power when people who hold privilege challenge others who hold the same privilege,” Donovan notes. So when white teens object to racist comments by other white teens, “it can’t be dismissed as easily.”

Speaking up when you witness a racist incident may help the target of the racism. It will also help you, argues Pieterse. “It’s not a good feeling to see someone else getting hurt and feel that there’s nothing you can do about it,” he points out.

Speak up even if the target of a racist comment isn’t around. The way you act and respond can affect what your group views as acceptable, Donovan notes. People often adjust their behavior based on their group’s norms or standards, she points out.

Five: Don’t downplay racist incidents. If a racist event has happened, take it seriously. “For kids who are the targets, the first and most important thing I would say to them is, 'it is not your fault,'” Pieterse says. “This is something that is happening to you. It’s not something that is happening based on anything you have done.”

Moreover, Pieterse adds, “You don’t have to keep it a secret.” Talk with parents, other family members and people at school or groups in your community. Speaking up helps fight against the feelings of powerlessness and fear that racist people try to make their targets suffer.

Indeed, a recent study in teens showed that sticking up for our beliefs in the face of opposition can become a positive experience.

#science #scied #sciblr #racism #science and society #psychology #behavior #culture #fighting racism

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lhs3020b · 5 years

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Some notes on recent polling developments (long, fairly depressing)...

The YouGov MRP figures came out last night. This is notable because in 2017, the multilevel-regression approach was the sole one that spotted the possibility of a hung parliament. We all ridiculed it at the time - I'll confess that I side-eyed it too. And then - well, we all know what happened to Theresa May, don't we? So, the MRP thing deserves to be taken seriously. And unfortunately, this year, it's looking grim for us. Briefly, the MRP is forecasting a Tory majority. They're also predicting that all opposition parties (bar the SNP, who only stand in Scotland) will lose seats. Labour in particular look in the danger-zone for a collapse, and contrary to their bullish predictions, the Liberal Democrats are also forecast to lose seats. (Note that this is with respect to their current strength - technically, the MRP result gives them a gain of 2 seats on where they were on the 9th of June. They currently have 19, due to defections from various other parties.)

I'll admit that I don't want to believe the MRP results, but this has never been a data-denialist blog, and I don't intend to start on that road today.

One caveat is that the reporting on the MRP results has ben remarkably-bad. The actual YouGov page is here: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/yougov-mrp-conservatives-359-labour-211-snp-43-ld- Buried a long way down the page, they say this: "Taking into account the margins of error, our model puts the number of Conservative seats at between 328 and 385, meaning that while we can be confident that the Conservatives would currently get a majority, it could range from a modest one to a landslide." As far as I can tell, the "majority of 68" figure is derived by treating 317 as a working majority and assuming that the Tory vote lands right at the upper end of their confidence-interval. This is poor statistical practice for a variety of reasons. It's also a bit questionable in terms of parliamentary arithmetic - the "working majority" thing depends on how many Sinn Fein MPs Northern Ireland elects (they don't take their seats, so count toward neither Government nor Opposition tallies). And we won't necessarily know how many that is until, well, December the 13th.

(Also, a further health-warning is that apparently the model isn't able to fully-represent some local phenomena, such as independent candidates, and the effect of the Brexit Party's partial stand-down is also apparently somewhat-unclear. The last caveat is that the analysis assumes data that has already been collected - that is, if public opinion changes between now and polling day, then obviously existing projections could become obsolete. This will still be a possible source of error even if the MRP sample is statistically-unbiased and the underlying theory/analysis is all sound.)

However, even the best-case scenario for us gives the Tories 328 seats, which is both a working and a (very small) absolute majority.

Obviously, this is not a good situation for us.

While not quite a landslide, nonetheless an inflated Tory majority will be devastating for this country. The stuff they'll do will be awful. Brexit will happen. There'll be a bus crash late next year, when the transition period ends. (No, they will have no plan for this - they won't feel they need one, as they'll be secure in power until 2024.) There'll be a Windrush for resident EU citizens. They'll trash the economy. They'll probably crash the NHS - the only question there is whether they do it through accidental negligence or through deliberate malice (say, an ideologically-driven trade "deal" that gives President Trump everything he wants on a silver platter). Nothing will be done about the country’s escalating housing crisis. They'll double down on all the maddest of the madcap "law-n-order" stuff - expect an explosion in jailable offences, accompanied by lengthy minimum-sentence tariffs and further restrictions on legal aid. They'll also resuscitate their plans to manipulate the parliamentary boundaries, and change electoral laws in their favour. The media? Expect no surprises from them. The newspapers are largely already Conservative Pravdas. The BBC - nervous about its precious Royal Charter - seems to be in the process of declaring itself for the Tories too.

Bluntly, if the Tories get re-elected this year, they'll gerrymander things so you have little chance of getting rid of them in 2024.

Perhaps this is the key thing to understand about Boris Johnson: really, he's less Britain's Trump, and more Britain's Victor Orban. He'll leave just enough vestigial democracy intact to make what he's doing plausibly-deniable, but he'll busily rearrange the furniture to favour himself and his friends. If he gets re-elected this December, you can expect to be seeing his face into the 2030s. The only reason I put the cut-off as early as that is that I expect the coming climate-crisis will wreak havoc with the Tories' internal coalition. (Oh you've built all your luxury millionaire mansions by the seaside? How nice for you, especially now that the sea is literally in your parlour. Umm, whoops.)

What can be done? Well, the first thing is to reiterate some discussions I've seen on Twitter recently. The TL;DR of them is that hope doesn't have to be something you feel - it can be something you do. (And that's just as well, because I'll admit that 2019 has destroyed what traces of social optimism I was clinging to. I'm dreading the bad end that's coming to us next month, but I also fully-expect it.)

So, my advice remains as it has been: on December the 12th, turn up, and vote for whoever you judge most likely to beat the Tory.

Remember, the MRP approach is fallible. "Mortal, finite, temporary" is absolutely in play here; no model is any better than the data that went into it. Or, indeed, the date when it was calculated. And at the end of the day, the only poll that genuinely-matters is the one on December the 12th, and that hasn't actually happened yet. (Though admittedly, given the storm-surge of pre-emptive grief that's flooding Twitter today, you could be forgiven for thinking otherwise.)

As for the horrible mess that are our opposition parties, I'll repeat what I said in 2017: it's OK to vote for a least-worst option. You're not perjuring yourself or committing any moral sin, rather you're trying to be a grown-up. Part of the package of being an adult is making the best of bad situations.

It absolutely does suck - believe me, this is one of the most soul-destroying election campaigns I've ever seen. Every single party has clown-show'd itself. All of them have done things that are ridiculous, inept or otherwise ghastly. (Well, maybe not the Greens - I haven't heard of any specific scandals surrounding them - but their cardinal sin is that they have no plausible prospect of winning the election.) But even then, the barrel we're going to have to stare down is going and voting for them anyway.

(As a related case-in-point, one factor that seems to have helped the Tories win their unexpected 2015 majority was that a contingent of left-wing voters simply stayed at home on the day. While it's hard to find concrete statistics on, nonetheless anecdotally, this absolutely was a thing. A lot of people were demotivated by Labour's confused and incoherent campaign, left cold by all the bothering about fiscal rules, and alienated by things like the mug with "controls on immigration" on it. All of those are 100% valid criticisms. Except, except, except ... it helped an even worse party back into office. The theory of "if the choices are bad, sit it out" has been tested to destruction. It turns out that looking the other way is also a choice, and not necessarily the best one.)

I would add that there are also real questions to be asked about the utter vacuum of political strategy of people nominally on the anti-Tory side - it seems the Opposition spent the summer fixated on the minutiae of House procedures, while never stopping to ask why they were on this battlefield to begin with. Meanwhile the Tories largely-ignored Commons process, and instead sent a political appeal straight to Leave voters. It lost them a lot of individual legislative battles (and I'm not minimising their defeats - they were important!), but it put them in a good strategic place to win an election. And in the long run, it turns out that was what mattered.

It's hard not to feel bitter while thinking about the events of spring and summer. Perhaps if Jo Swinson had been less blinkered about Jeremy Corbyn, perhaps if Labour could have had the minimum sense to call a Vote of No Confidence when BoJo was vulnerable, perhaps if the collective Opposition had been able to recognise the huge wave of unharnessed political energy washing through the country during the petition back in March, perhaps if Change UK had managed to be something other than an unfunny joke, maybe if Corbyn had taken the anti-semitism problem seriously in 2018 and had actually done something instead of sitting on his hands and letting it metastasize to the point where it derailed his election campaign ... but, no. That's for some other, better timeline, not the one we live in. We seem to live in the world that resolutely and firmly chooses the wrong fork in every road. I don't know whether our timeline quite qualifies as the Bad Place, but it's certainly a place full of bad choices.

In a weird sort of way, though, this brings us back to the key theme. Whatever you might think of what's happening in this election - and goodness knows I'm as appalled as anyone else - nonetheless, your vote matters. Use it. As we're seeing, this is the ultimate limitation on their power, and the one chance we have of stopping them.

So once more, let me reiterate: turn up. Vote against the Tory. Do it as a hopeful action, even if you don't feel hopeful. If nothing else, do it so that when the bad things happen, at least you can say you tried to stop it. I wish I had something less bleak to offer here, but this is where we are.

#UK internal politics #diary of a disaster #needed to get that wail of despair out of my system really #still feeling quite despairing though

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