#2024 republican primaries

[dontmeantobepoliticalbut]

Donald Trump has now been impeached twice, indicted twice, but remains the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. In a recent interview, he vowed to stay in the race even if he gets convicted for any of the crimes for which he’s been charged. "If [Trump] gets back into power, he'll never leave," says Ruth Ben-Ghiat. "He needs to get back into power because he's so corrupt and shut down all investigations.” And while a handful of Republicans have notably criticized Trump post-indictment, the majority of the GOP have come to his defense and echoed his talking points. “The GOP, as you know, I feel they’re an autocratic party operating in a democracy,” Ben-Ghiat tells Ali Velshi. “They have talking points just like the Kremlin does and we have seen everybody use the same language about the weaponization of government.”

#us politics #news #msnbc #ali velshi #Ruth Ben-Ghiat #republicans #donald trump #conservatives #2023 #2024 elections #2024 republican primaries #2024 presidential race #felony indictment #indicted

[dontmean2bepoliticalbut]

#us politics #twitter #tweet #elon musk #memes #shitpost #the serfs #2023 #tesla #divorced dad energy #gov. ron desantis #florida #2024 republican primaries #2024 presidential race #2024 elections

[uboat53]

All right, I may as well make this a regular thing because these kinds of things are going to keep coming up. Let's call this "CAN TRUMP WIN?"

So the point behind this is that the majority of Republicans don't want Trump to be their nominee in 2024, but the rules of their primary and the way it's shaking out make it look like they're going to end up with him anyways. Just as important as the rules, however, are the ideas.

Look at the major ideas floating in the Republican Party: (1) the 2020 election (and possibly the 2022 election) was stolen, (2) the Justice Department is being weaponized by the Biden Administration to attack Republicans, and (3) Republican ideas are best for the economy and Covid is the only reason that the massive tax cuts of 2017 didn't deliver growth.

Which of those ideas tells you that Donald Trump was bad for the party? If you accept those ideas, then he's a victim of both circumstance and vicious Democratic lies. If you accept those ideas, then it's not Donald Trump who's bad for the party, he's just been cheated and slandered. Wouldn't that make you want to help him instead of cast him aside?

Now look, there are a few Republicans (Larry Hogan, for example) who are willing to deny those ideas (accurately, because they are lies), but those Republicans aren't really contenders and don't have strong influence on public opinion. The ones that do (like DeSantis, Abbott, and Noem) accept all of those ideas.

So here's my take on it: as long as Republicans accept all of the ideas that Trump puts forward, the ones that cast him as the victim of a terrible plot, it will be just about impossible to make the case that he was a bad President, is a bad candidate, and that the party would be better off abandoning him.

You can't fight a war if you keep letting the enemy define the ground, unless Republicans make a concerted attempt to correct these lies that hold sway within the party it's a good bet that they'll lose to him yet again.

#politics #us politics #trump #donald john trump #donald trump #can trump win? #2024 republican primaries #2024 election

[destielmemenews]

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#destiel meme news #destiel meme #news #united states #us news #us politics #donald trump #fuck trump #ron desantis #fuck ron desantis #vote blue #2024 presidential race #2024 elections #biden harris 2024 #presidential primaries #republican primary #republicans #sorry for the lack of news i've been playing baldur's gate 3

[memenewsdotcom]

Supreme Court restores Trump to ballots

View On WordPress

#2024 #America #Donald Trump #government #insurrection #January 6th #meme #memes #news #politics #primary #republican #trump #united states

[decolonize-the-left]

I think there's some cognitive dissonance surrounding progress that I really need you all to accept:

Regime changes are not smooth. They're scary even. And rebellions are messy and scary too.

A lot of you are like "yes that makes sense" and I'm glad because when I say this next thing I want you to Not be reactionary and immediately defensive, but listen and remember that progress means taking risks that make you uncomfortable. Remember that you want progress. Don't blurt out the first excuse that comes to mind like Really sit and think about it. Because you're gonna have to accept being uncomfortable if we want things to change.

Stop voting for Democrats and pressuring everyone else to vote democrat. They signed an agreement with Republicans saying that they denounce socialist policies (good welfare programs) in an era of late stage capitalism, poverty, and severe climate change. They intentionally platform extremists to help themselves win (and in fact this strategy backfiring is exactly why Trump won in 2016)

Democrats are not a party of progressives who are trying to fix things. They're literally trying to replace Republicans with extremists on ballots just so ppl feel obligated to vote for them. Democrats are intentionally scaring voters with an alt right & fascist candidates for votes.

If you have ever said "vote blue or else-" or "vote Blue and we might be able to save (state)" then this strategy has worked on you.

If you want Actual progress then you gotta vote for people who are promising you progress. Progressives, independents, green party.

Democrats keep promising that the fire won't get worse, but they've been fanning the flames the whole time cuz they love the heat.

Quit voting for people who prefer that your house be on fire.

And yeah it'll be scary to vote for a party without as much support and yeah maybe it does cause a swing vote.

......But maybe it doesn't.

Maybe we end up with a president willing to do more than compromise our rights with transphobic Republicans. Maybe we get our rights codified & even get a process for handling fascist politicians like trump & Desantis. Maybe we get a president with a personal and genuine interest in the betterment of us not just our economy.

And it starts with you doing something just a little different than usual.

We cant have change if you're too afraid to create it.

#us politics #us elections #2024 election #voting #two party system #Republicans #Democrats #liberals #progressives #current events #lgbt #capitalism #indigenous #biden #ndn #leftist #2024 #primary elections #cornel west

[republicansaredomesticterrorists]

#republican assholes #traitor trump #crooked donald #resist #maga morons #vote Democratic #vote blue #vote Biden Harris 2024 #South Carolina primary #Nimaratta Nikki Randhawa Haley

[grits-galraisedinthesouth]

"A Bad Night for Davos"

Trump introduced Vivek Ramaswamy in NH

DJT: The globalists worst nightmare

There is something very wrong w/Team DeSantis

Matt Kim: Monday is going to be WILD!!! Showed up to Iowa on a whim. Blind faith. No plan. Just to experience the political process for the first time in my life. See the truth. Team Trump heard about what happened at the DeSantis event to me and offered me full access to their campaign and an opportunity to ride with their press corp to the afternoon President Trump’s events.  They’re going to let me stream, record and get the real behind the scenes footage. You never know what can happen if you don’t take that chance. Truly humbled by the experience. Thank you all who have supported me, encouraged me, shared my content, ideas and views. Without you, this is not possible. Without you, I would not have the opportunity of a lifetime. To meet President Trump face to face. Thank you! Seriously. Love y’all!

#republican primary #Trump 2024 #vivek ramaswamy #Dishonest DeSantis #Trump Train #Trump Landslide #larry kudlow #mark simone #Davos #lawfare

[tomorrowusa]

Today is Super Tuesday. It's more than just presidential primaries.

Last night Rachel Maddow spotlighted some of the wack Republican candidates and wove them together to describe how bizarrely extremist the GOP has become. This is NOT your grandmother's Republican Party which gave us sane people like Gerald Ford or George Pataki.

If you are not taking the threat seriously then you just haven't been paying attention.

Ms. Maddow goes on to say that it's up to us to stop a MAGA Republican takeover of the US. We cannot rely on some legal gimmick to stop Trump.

In the words of civil rights icon Rev. Jesse Jackson: "Nobody will save us from us but us."

#super tuesday #primaries #rachel maddow #maga #republicans #extremism #conspiracy theories #anti-vaxxers #democracy vs. dictatorship #the far right #donald trump #civic involvement #register and vote #vote blue no matter who #election 2024 #Youtube

[writing-with-olive]

So as we're heading into the American primaries, now is a super good time to see if you're registered to vote. Remember: even if you've been registered in the past, it's possible you've been removed from the registry without being notified. Go check.

Also, now's a really good time to put into your calendar when the relevant dates are for voting. If you plan on voting for election day, this link lists when that is in your state.

Note that voter ID laws may have changed since last time you voted. This map by ballotpedia shows the requirements by state. These rules may be different in the event that you are showing up to register and vote at the same time.

If you're unhappy with all of the options, remember that voting is not the only form of civic engagement you can engage in - getting engaged in your local community is still very much an option that is on the table and is effective. Voting and community organizing are not mutually exclusive acts. While the presidential race is the most prominent it is not the only race that's happening, and that local races that will affect your life far more directly are also on the ballot. Go vote.

#2024 primary #2024 election #politics #civic engagement #voting #voter registration #early voting #voting day #absentee ballot #voter id laws #voter id #american politics #democrat #republican #swing state #unlikely voter #democracy #presidential race #municipal elections #state elections

[dontmeantobepoliticalbut]

Former House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) said the indictment of former President Trump on federal charges last week will make him unelectable in 2024 if he wins the GOP’s primary election.

“If we nominate anybody not named Donald Trump, we’re going to beat Joe Biden,” Ryan said Tuesday during an appearance on CBS This Morning, noting the former president had plenty of “baggage” before last week’s indictment was handed down.

“He’s got a great core of support, and in a primary that’s what you build off of. So it does matter,” Ryan said. “But I think the electability argument is going to become more salient with this event and whatever happens in the future … it’s going to make it easier to make the argument to his supporters he’s not electable.”

“He’s going to cost us the Senate again, he’s going to cost us House seats, and we want to win,” he added.

Trump is slated to be arraigned in Miami on Tuesday afternoon on 37 counts related to his handling of classified documents after he left the White House in 2021. Federal prosecutors have alleged Trump put national security at risk and is in violation of the Espionage Act.

The former president has dismissed the accusations against him as political and told his supporters President Biden is “weaponizing” the Justice Department against him to keep him from claiming the White House again.

Trump and Ryan are frequent foes.

The former president has repeatedly attacked the former lawmaker over his seat on the board of Fox Corp., which owns and operates Fox News, an outlet Trump has grown increasingly sour on since his 2020 election loss.

#us politics #news #the hill #republicans #conservatives #fox corporation #fox news #paul ryan #donald trump #classified documents #classified documents probe #2024 presidential race #2024 republican primaries #2024 elections #2023

[dontmean2bepoliticalbut]

#us politics #twitter #tweet #x #charlie kirk #turning point usa #vivek ramaswamy #2024 Republican primary #2024 elections #the serfs #gender dysphoria #transgender #trans rights #trans pride #lgbtqia+ #lgbtqia+ rights #republican presidential debate #republican primary #american psychiatric association #the new york times

[uboat53]

Anyone curious if Trump can snag the 2024 Republican nomination? I'm putting his odds at about 50/50, here's why (SHORT RANT (TM) and this one has a TL;DR at the end if you want to skip to it).

THE BASIC PROBLEM

Trump commands a fairly solid base, I'd say anywhere from 25%-30% of the Republican primary electorate. These are people who will likely vote for him as long as he is on the ballot. This isn't a majority but, in a crowded field like the one we saw in 2016, it can easily be a plurality.

QUICK HISTORY ASIDE

The Democratic primary rules allocate delegates relatively proportionately, which prevents a factional candidate from racking up insurmountable leads after a few close plurality wins, but the Republican primary rules are still largely winner-take-all and those that aren't tend to allocate delegates less proportionately, leaning more toward the one with more votes. This means that a candidate who wins a few close victories with only 30% of the vote will end up with just as many delegates as a candidate who wins those same victories with an overwhelming 70% of the vote.

This is exactly what happened in 2016 when Trump came away with almost 62% of the delegates from the early primaries despite winning 24%, 35%, 33%, and 46% of the vote respectively. The same thing happened in the March 1st primaries after which Trump had over 46% of the delegates despite having gotten more than 46% of the vote in only one state (MA).

Much of this is due to the fact that he was facing a divided field. Easily more than half of Republicans were voting against Trump, but they couldn't agree on the same person to vote FOR. Take the Florida primary, held a month and a half after voting started. Only 46% of the voters chose Donald Trump, but the rest of them divided between John Kasich (7%), Ted Cruz (17%), Marco Rubio (27%) and candidates who weren't even still in the race. Trump got 100% of the delegates from Florida.

It wasn't until the second half of April, after having established a massive lead in delegates, that Trump finally broke 50% of the vote in a primary. By that point Trump had almost 50% of the delegates despite never having gotten that much of the vote in any primary and significantly less in most.

BACK TO THE BASIC PROBLEM

So we have the issue here where the Republican primaries heavily reward winning, even if only by a whisker, and the more divided the field is the easier it is for a candidate like Trump with a sizeable, devoted base to do this.

HOW DO YOU STOP SOMETHING LIKE THAT?

The easiest way is for the party and its major actors to come together and agree to support fewer candidates, thus avoiding the split of votes. Democrats did this in the 2020 primaries, with Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg dropping out of the race and endorsing Joe Biden in order to consolidate the moderate vote within the party to defeat more liberal candidates like Bernie Sanders.

WHY WOULD THEY DO THAT?

Well, I don't necessarily have a good answer for that. Buttigieg, obviously, got some good out of the whole thing. He's from Indiana and didn't really have another pathway to national office. Now he's Transportation Secretary in charge of managing the largest investment in American infrastructure in generations, something sure to keep his profile up.

But self-centered motivations can only get you so far; after all, the person is giving up a shot at the highest prize in the land. At the end of the day it requires the party actors to believe that something, in this case a moderate candidate capable of beating Trump and governing in a way that moderate Democrats like, is more important than their own personal ambition to the highest office.

WILL IT HAPPEN?

That's the question I can't answer. How many Republicans believe in the good of the party over their own personal ambitions? If you ask me, based on the last half-decade, not a ton and those that did have largely been forced out of the party for opposing Trump on some issue or another.

It's certainly possible that I'm wrong, but my read is that more of the top Republicans these days are there because they lack higher principles than because they have them.

At this point I can see a field that includes Ted Cruz, Mike Pompeo, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Rick Scott, Tim Scott, Glenn Younkin, and possible Greg Abbot. It's not quite as large (yet) as the 2016 primary, but it's more than enough to split the vote and allow a similar Trump victory.

OKAY, WHAT SHOULD I BE LOOKING FOR?

There are two ways for Trump not to run away with the 2024 primary like he did with the 2016 primary. The first is luck, maybe the party will get lucky and voters will finally turn away from him. The second way, though is more likely, and it requires two things to happen:

1) People need to drop out, enough people to narrow the field down to 2-3 candidates including Trump.

2) The people who drop out need to endorse one person. None of this "I'm getting out, do what you want" and no splitting up the endorsements, one person.

If you see those two things happening before too many primaries have passed then I'd say they have a good shot at stopping Trump. If not…

TL;DR

If Republicans can keep their field narrow and coalesce around a single alternative to Trump, then he's beatable. If not, then I'd say it's pretty likely he takes the nomination.

#politics #us politics #political strategy #trump #2024 primaries #2024 republican primaries #republican primary #republicans #short rant (tm)

[soltalks]

#Votenow #ElectionDay Today is the #primaries for the #presidentialelection All #Democrats and #Republicans get out and #vote #YourVoteYourVoice #yourvotematters #votingmatters

#voting #please vote #your voice matters #your vote matters #election 2024 #primaries #democrats #democracy #republicans #presidential election

[daloy-politsey]

#Nikki Haley #2024 elections #2024 Republican primary

[gwydionmisha]

G.O.P. Rivals See Trump’s Indictment as a Big Problem (for Them)

#Donald Trump #Election 2024 #Republicans #Primary #News