According to my Nintendo Year in Review, I played Engage for over 250 hours. Granted that most of that was early in the year, but it really didn't feel like that long. I kind of want to revisit it at some point - finally work towards building up a perfect file, and all that.
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Imagine you live in pelican town.
The new farmer has been here a couple weeks now and seems to be settling in, except... He's picking the weirdest friend choices. Like sure it's not weird to befriend the local fisherman, especially when he has an interest in fishing himself, but you're pretty sure you've seen him rooting through the Saloon's garbage with the local homeless man. As well, he keeps harassing the poor guy who works at Joja even though you KNOW he doesn't want to be friends with him.
And since you're on the topic of weirdness, isn't it odd he seemingly runs everywhere at a full sprint? Or just... Eats entire raw fish while fishing for "energy reasons"...
...
Despite all that, it's too early to call him off putting or anything... He has been engaging in town traditions, and he's started helping out with the old community centre. He's probably like the rest of you. Someone with a few quirks, that will fit in with the valley great!
Surely he can't get any weirder... Right?
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Prompt 109
“What the fuck, what the fuck, what the fuck-” Tim chanted to himself, looking down at his cup of tea in betrayal. Was he hallucinating, had he been drugged with something? He had slept last night!
Yet there in their own Lazarus Pit, the one in the cave not the giant one somewhere under the rest of Gotham, was a literal baby, looking just as surprised as he was. Of course that didn’t last, and its face scrunched up as it started to cry, which was his first hint that no, this was not in fact a hallucination.
There was a pit baby in the Lazarus pool.
. . .
There was a pit baby in the Lazarus pool.
OH FUCK, there was a pit baby in the freaking Lazarus pool-
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Something that has been driving me insane about the credits are these sections with the fish so please bear with me whilst I do a mini deep dive (hehe) into fish discourse because YO, we need to talk about these fish!
Notice how at the beginning of the credits we actually have two white fish swimming along beside one another; one with bright turquoise eyes and the other with black.
A little while later the fish begin to circle each other and a droplet falls into the water between them. As the disturbance ripples out from the center, one of the fish dives deeper into the water and changes its colour to black; symbolizing Geto's change and descent into darkness
Then we have this heartbreakingly beautiful moment with Gojo and Geto:
I cannot stop thinking about how long Gojo watches the black fish for as it swims across the screen, whereas Geto's eyes are lowered the moment the white fish appears and he closes them as it swims past.
Gojo cannot bear to tear his eyes away, whilst Geto cannot bear to look
Throughout the credits, Gojo and Geto have been making their way towards each other through the pouring rain (or mostly sitting and waiting in Geto's case). At the end, they meet each other under a bridge and as they walk away together we see the fish a final time, swimming together again in a puddle formed by the heavy rain.
Geto walks on the left in the light, as the white fish swims close to his head, almost invisible in the brightness of the light. Whilst Gojo walks on the right in the shadow with the black fish swimming further away but still close by.
The fish speed after the two men before disappearing completely under the water just before the camera pans up and we watch as Gojo pulls Geto in for a hug as they walk away, before he's playfully shoved away by Geto.
There's a lot going on the credits (+ opening) that is absolutely killing me but man, these fish?! Breathtaking.
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Doing the maths: Grian's failure at getting a mending book
lots of talk about maths and probabilities below the cut! but there's a graph and simple explanation at the end if you want to get the gist of it and are bad at maths.
(I am still young and learning maths, critique/advice always welcomed)
What are the odds of getting a mending book in Minecraft?
(I am assuming Grian has been doing all his fishing with Luck of the Sea 3)
The probability of a mending book is actually a bit annoying to estimate. The Minecraft Wiki lists fishing up an enchanted book as 1.9% chance. This is for ANY enchanted book. The Minecraft wiki talks about how the chance of an enchantment being selected is calculated. Mending has a weight of 2. Using the table, mending has a probability of 2/135.
However, Grian is looking for any book with mending, not just a pure mending book. Additional enchantments are calculated in a different way, involving RNG, which means it won't be as easy to model. Due to this reason, I'll just be using the odds for a pure mending book throughout.
TLDR: a mending book has a 0.028..% chance (2/135*0.019*100)
Grian's Data
According to this screenshot, Grian has used a fishing rod 5679 times. This number may not be fully accurate, as it includes the times he's fished other players, rather than just fished for items, but it is a good estimate.
To help visualise this data, with a median waiting time between catches of 17.5 seconds, Grian has spent over 20 hours fishing so far! He may have a problem.
Is this statistically significant?
Hypothesis testing (p-value approach):
H0: p = 19/67500 (the null hypothesis - he has no mending books because of chance)
H1: p < 19/67500 (the alternate hypothesis - he has no mending books due to different odds)
5679 trials, 0 mending books
X ~ B(5679, 19/67500) (binomial distribution, 5679 tries with a probability of a mending book being 19/67500, where X is the number of mending books)
p(X=0) (what is the probability the number of mending books being 0)
p = 0.2021473392
Now, the point at which data becomes significant is subjective. For instance, you *could* get a million heads in a row flipping a coin, it's not impossible, but at a certain point, you can begin to say "okay there's something not normal about this". For this approach, the closer the p-value is to 0, the more evidence there is against the null hypothesis . The p-value here is far above a significance level of 0.01, or 0.05, or 0.1. There isn't a clear line between significant/non-significant, but this is answer is quite a bit far from 0
With this, I cannot reject the null hypothesis.
Personal conclusion: this is not statistically significant, Grian is just unlucky.
Are other values statistically significant?
Gem's proposed 9000: results in a p-value of 0.079... more significant than Grian's number but I don't imagine Mojang would be too concerned. As said though, it's all subjective.
I am bad at maths, what does all this mean?
Here is a graph, showing what number of mending books you might have after 5679 tries. The height of the bar represents the probability of getting that amount. The numbers at the top are the (rounded) numbers I used in my calculation
The pink column is 0 mending books - like what Grian has! As you can see, it is less likely than getting 1 or 2 books, but not too uncommon to happen.
End conclusion: Grian has bad luck. Like, not as hilariously bad as he thinks, but still bad. If he keeps going, chances are he will get a mending book, but I think he should probably stop fishing because at this point he has a problem.
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