doing numbers in the uni math discord for my top-notch memes
[Id: the ‘Bruce Landlord’ meme with text edited to read:
Bruce: It is clear in the definition: no limits of distributions are allowed to be called functions. Sorry.
Sender: picture of the cat labeled ‘the Dirac function’
Bruce: OK I will make an exception because he looks very polite]
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I saw another of these floating around that was...wrong, so I'm putting this together so people can keep characters' ages straight more easily. I'm not listing everyone, obviously, but characters whose ages get misstated most often.
Does this match up with the wiki or the Ultimanias? Absolutely not! The Ultimania says that Lucrecia was pregnant for three years! The wiki says that Vincent was shot after Sephiroth was born, even though Lucrecia was still pregnant when it happened! The source material, however, is 99.99% internally consistent with regard to the timeline, so I go with that, and that's what we're going by here.
Jenova Project S (1977 · [ μ ] – εγλ 1977)
Vincent: 26-27 (October 13, 1950)
Lucrecia: 27-28 (July 22, presumed 1949 or 1950)
Hojo: 32 (born 1945)
Pre-Crisis Core (2000 · [ μ ] – εγλ 2000)
Genesis: 23 (born early 1977, see first link below)
Sephiroth: 22-23 (born in late 1977, probably Christmas)
Angeal: 21-22 (born late 1977/early 1978, see first link above)
Zack: 16 (born in 1984)
Cloud: 14 (August 11, 1986)
Aerith: 15 (February 2, 1985)
Nibelheim Incident (October 2002 · [ ν ] – εγλ 0002)
Genesis: 25
Sephiroth: 24-25
Angeal: 23-24
Zack: 18
Cloud: 16
Aerith: 17
The Crisis (December 2007 · [ ν ] – εγλ 0007)
Genesis: 30-31
Sephiroth: 30 (physically ~25)
Angeal: 29-30
Zack: 23
Cloud: 21
Aerith: 22
Vincent: 57 (physically 27)
Lucrecia: 57-58 (physically ~34)
Hojo: 62
Advent Children (2009 · [ ν ] – εγλ 0008)
Genesis: 32-33 (physically ~30)
Sephiroth: 32 (physically ~25)
Cloud: 23
Vincent: 59 (physically 27)
Dirge of Cerberus (2010 · [ ν ] – εγλ 0010)
Genesis: 33-34 (physically ~30)
Cloud: 24
Vincent: 60 (physically 27)
Lucrecia: 60-61 (physically 34)
Hojo: 65 (physically nonexistent)
Edited April 2024, when Hojo's age was canonized by the Rebirth Ultimania.
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Doing the maths: Grian's failure at getting a mending book
lots of talk about maths and probabilities below the cut! but there's a graph and simple explanation at the end if you want to get the gist of it and are bad at maths.
(I am still young and learning maths, critique/advice always welcomed)
What are the odds of getting a mending book in Minecraft?
(I am assuming Grian has been doing all his fishing with Luck of the Sea 3)
The probability of a mending book is actually a bit annoying to estimate. The Minecraft Wiki lists fishing up an enchanted book as 1.9% chance. This is for ANY enchanted book. The Minecraft wiki talks about how the chance of an enchantment being selected is calculated. Mending has a weight of 2. Using the table, mending has a probability of 2/135.
However, Grian is looking for any book with mending, not just a pure mending book. Additional enchantments are calculated in a different way, involving RNG, which means it won't be as easy to model. Due to this reason, I'll just be using the odds for a pure mending book throughout.
TLDR: a mending book has a 0.028..% chance (2/135*0.019*100)
Grian's Data
According to this screenshot, Grian has used a fishing rod 5679 times. This number may not be fully accurate, as it includes the times he's fished other players, rather than just fished for items, but it is a good estimate.
To help visualise this data, with a median waiting time between catches of 17.5 seconds, Grian has spent over 20 hours fishing so far! He may have a problem.
Is this statistically significant?
Hypothesis testing (p-value approach):
H0: p = 19/67500 (the null hypothesis - he has no mending books because of chance)
H1: p < 19/67500 (the alternate hypothesis - he has no mending books due to different odds)
5679 trials, 0 mending books
X ~ B(5679, 19/67500) (binomial distribution, 5679 tries with a probability of a mending book being 19/67500, where X is the number of mending books)
p(X=0) (what is the probability the number of mending books being 0)
p = 0.2021473392
Now, the point at which data becomes significant is subjective. For instance, you *could* get a million heads in a row flipping a coin, it's not impossible, but at a certain point, you can begin to say "okay there's something not normal about this". For this approach, the closer the p-value is to 0, the more evidence there is against the null hypothesis . The p-value here is far above a significance level of 0.01, or 0.05, or 0.1. There isn't a clear line between significant/non-significant, but this is answer is quite a bit far from 0
With this, I cannot reject the null hypothesis.
Personal conclusion: this is not statistically significant, Grian is just unlucky.
Are other values statistically significant?
Gem's proposed 9000: results in a p-value of 0.079... more significant than Grian's number but I don't imagine Mojang would be too concerned. As said though, it's all subjective.
I am bad at maths, what does all this mean?
Here is a graph, showing what number of mending books you might have after 5679 tries. The height of the bar represents the probability of getting that amount. The numbers at the top are the (rounded) numbers I used in my calculation
The pink column is 0 mending books - like what Grian has! As you can see, it is less likely than getting 1 or 2 books, but not too uncommon to happen.
End conclusion: Grian has bad luck. Like, not as hilariously bad as he thinks, but still bad. If he keeps going, chances are he will get a mending book, but I think he should probably stop fishing because at this point he has a problem.
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One more day to contribute to fandom science, and if you've already submitted your response here's some fun facts about Good Omens fic on ao3 for you:
Prior to the release of the first season, there were 3,574 fics on ao3 under the Good Omens book fandom tag. Especially compared to current numbers, they are almost overwhelmingly general and teen. Popular tags included fluff, humor, crossover, established relationship, romance, and drabble.
The "anal sex" tag did not make its debut on the top tags list until January of 2024. The ratio of explicit fics is also much higher than any month since the s2 release. Y'all nasty (I love you).
The longest fic under the GO Tv tag is 1,041,533 words with over 200 chapters and is published in spanish. The second place is at 500k, also in Spanish. The third, and the longest english fic, is 479,886 words and 56 chapters, and it's a rarepair Crowley/Gabriel with Aziraphale as the villain. Interesting choices were made here, major respect for the author. Takes guts.
There are 150 pages of fic, or about 3,000 fics, with less than 50 words (my cutoff for calculating average wordcount). That's 3k archived works consisting of podfics, artwork, and short poetry. Very cool!
Y'all are all simps and suckers. With the singular exception of August 2023 (Neil you know what you did), the top tag accross all dates I pulled data from was always fluff.
As I said, if you haven't already PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE GO VOTE to contribute to the biggest survey of Good Omens fanfic statistics made to date, and maybe give this or the poll a reblog to get it in front of more writers.
Bonus fun fact: In the time it took me to type this post, 4 more fics were posted.
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