#times of troubles | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

nicklloydnow · 11 months

Text

“The article was published on the Kremlin's main propaganda website, RIA Novosti. It was written by Sergey Karaganov, a "Doctor of Sciences in History" and a political scientist. The article’s full title is "There is no choice: Russia will have to launch a nuclear strike on Europe".

And this is not his first such material. Less than two weeks ago, Karaganov published a similar article, the essence of which boils down to the same thing – Russia "must launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Europe." It was published in Profile, a private magazine.”

youtube

“As the video illustrates, it doesn’t matter much who starts the war: when one side launches nuclear missiles, the other side detects them and fires back before impact. Ballistic missiles from U.S. submarines west of Norway start striking Russia after about 10 minutes, and Russian ones from north of Canada start hitting the U.S. a few minutes later. The very first strikes fry electronics and power grids by creating an electro-magnetic pulse of tens of thousands of volts per meter. The next strikes target command-and-control centers and nuclear launch facilities. Land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles take about half an hour to fly from launch to target.

(…)

Unfortunately, peer-reviewed research suggests that explosions, the electromagnetic pulse, and the radioactivity aren’t the worst part: a nuclear winter is caused by the black carbon smoke from the nuclear firestorms. The Hiroshima atomic bomb caused such a firestorm, but today’s hydrogen bombs are much more powerful. A large city like Moscow, with almost 50 times more people than Hiroshima, can create much more smoke, and a firestorm that sends plumes of black smoke up into the stratosphere, far above any rain clouds that would otherwise wash out the smoke. This black smoke gets heated by sunlight, lofting it like a hot air balloon for up to a decade. High-altitude jet streams are so fast that it takes only a few days for the smoke to spread across much of the northern hemisphere.

This makes Earth freezing cold even during the summer, with farmland in Kansas cooling by about 20 degrees centigrade (about 40 degrees Fahrenheit), and other regions cooling almost twice as much. A recent scientific paper estimates that over 5 billion people could starve to death, including around 99% of those in the US, Europe, Russia, and China – because most black carbon smoke stays in the Northern hemisphere where it’s produced, and because temperature drops harm agriculture more at high latitudes.

(…)

We obviously don’t know how many people will survive a nuclear war. But if it’s even remotely as bad as this study predicts, it has no winners, merely losers. It’s easy to feel powerless, but the good news is that there is something you can do to help: please help share this video! The fact that nuclear war is likely to start via gradual escalation, perhaps combined by accident or miscalculation, means that the more people know about nuclear war, the more likely we are to avoid having one.”

“Article 92 of Russia's constitution lays down that if the head of state is 'incapable of fulfilling his duties' his temporary successor is the prime minister. That would be Mikhail Mishustin, a competent, low-key 57-year-old bureaucrat who is hardly a household name even in Russia.

But real power after a palace coup would lie elsewhere, probably with a Kremlin insider. Nikolai Patrushev, the national security adviser, is one candidate. His well-connected, fast-rising son Dmitry, currently agriculture minister, is another. Any such new leader would make Putin the scapegoat for the disastrous Ukraine war, and try to end it as quickly as possible.

A neat solution, but not a durable one.Many in Russia fear that what lies ahead is a 'Time of Troubles' (Smutnoye vremya), in which feuding clans battle for wealth and power. The phrase originally referred to the lawless period after 1598, when the tsarist throne changed hands six times in 15 years.

(…)

According to Igor Girkin, a military veteran with a wide following among nationalist Russians, last weekend's chaotic and violent events show that another 'Time of Troubles' has already started.

(…)

The state-controlled energy giant Gazprom has two militias: Potok (stream) and Fakel (torch). The defence minister Sergei Shoigu has Patriot, which hires experienced soldiers on hefty salaries of £5,000 a month or more — a fortune by Russian standards.

These legions serve many purposes. Apart from spearheading Russia's efforts in Ukraine, the Wagner Group — in particular — spreads Kremlin influence across Africa and was largely responsible for saving the brutal Assad regime in Syria. Yet the existence of these 'military contractors' is a sign of how deeply Russia has decayed. It would be inconceivable for British companies such as the energy giant BP, or the catering contractor Sodexo, to have private armies, let alone for Ben Wallace, the Secretary of State for Defence, to have his own personal fighting force.

(…)

The Kremlin is belatedly trying to rein in these legions. But the lesson of the past few days is that central power is weak. Just like the boyars [barons] who clashed in the first Time of Troubles, the big players in modern Russia know that they need their own private militias, and the bigger the better.

As these rivalries boil over, long-buried ethnic grievances could resurface too. Regional chiefs, who have long chafed at Moscow's intrusive rule, could all too easily try to assert their independence. The Muslim peoples of central Russia — Tatars, Bashkirs and others — could exploit the crisis to regain the freedom they briefly tasted more than 100 years ago.

(…)

In Britain we may have largely disconnected our oil and gas supplies from Russia, but that is no cause for complacency if the giant country spirals downwards into disorder. Perhaps the most alarming prospect is 'loose nukes': the thought of Russia's stockpile of thousands of nuclear warheads falling into the hands of terrorists.

(…)

Decision-makers in Beijing have long looked hungrily over their shared border at Russia's natural wealth: hydrocarbons, minerals, timber, water and crops. It would be ironic if Putin's attempt to rebuild the old Russian empire ended in his country becoming part of the new Chinese one. Yet these are not the worst outcomes. A post-Putin junta or strongman could turn the country into a nuclear-armed rogue state like North Korea or Iran, bristling with weapons and determined to make trouble. Given our repeated failures to contain Putin's ambitions, we will struggle to deal with a regime truly bent on nuclear confrontation.

(…)

One thing in all this is certain — change will catch us flat-footed. Over the past 30 years I have watched in dismay and anger as our governments have eviscerated Britain's expertise in understanding Russia. Spies, diplomats and analysts with lifetime experience in Kremlinology, their skills honed by the high stakes of the Cold War, were cast on to the scrap heap.

(…)

Whether we like it or not, the Putin era — with the illusions it fostered in Russia and abroad — is coming to an end. Be prepared.”

#karaganov #sergey karaganov #tegmark #max tegmark #nuclear war #nuclear weapons #wwiii #russia ukraine war #putin #edward lucas #Igor Girkin #times of troubles #Smutnoye vremya #gazprom

2 notes · View notes

tinyshe · 2 years

Text

#christian #scripture #deliverer #rescuer #comforter #God #jesus #times of troubles

2 notes · View notes

zephyrine-gale · 1 year

Photo

Kazuscara | A Ghost of a Memory

Part 1/?

Also hbday to scara ♡

#genshin impact #kazuha #kaedehara kazuha #scaramouche #wanderer #kazuscara #my art #first art of the year!!#i have an entire 20+ page comic planned for this sooo #u can expect more of them #and every time i think about how to panel everything more pages get added akdfh #they are living rent free in my head rn #hoping that I can get the next parts up next week! but it's currently the part that i'm having trouble #sketching out #so im doing more research :'D #fight scenes and bgs are not my forte but that can change for 2023 lmao

29K notes · View notes

minryll · 5 months

Text

800 years to be held by him again

#tgcf #tian guan ci fu #heaven officials blessing #hualian #天官赐福 #xie lian #hua cheng #hong er #my hand slipped #I NEED TO PRACTICE DRAWING BACKGROUNDS SO BAD #suprisingly enough #it’s the hair that gave me the most trouble this time #i know hong er’s bandage is on wrong just shhhhhhhhhhhhhhh #hua cheng may be dead but xie lian’s body heat is enough to warm both of them

4K notes · View notes

pvrrhadve · 8 months

Text

hey don't cry. bruce springsteen tried to dodge the draft by telling the army he was gay before failing his physical anyway ok?

#when i find myself in times of trouble‚

8K notes · View notes

egophiliac · 7 months

Text

this is basically what happened, right?

(these guys are very lucky that everyone at NRC 1) has the combined intelligence of a sack of bricks, and 2) is easily distracted by shiny things.)

#art #twisted wonderland #twisted wonderland spoilers #stage in playful land #stage in playfulland #these two are SO sleazy and i am utterly delighted by them #can't wait to find out their tragic backstory in approximately 3-4 weeks!#fortunately i have like a month to figure out how the heck to draw their hair (spoiler: i will never figure it out)#also. god. i love it whenever leona accidentally reveals his Mom Side.#he doesn't care about any of this but he WILL be tagging along to make sure no one else gets into trouble #once again he has to be the Responsible Adult and he hates it. the whimsical hat weighs heavy upon his head.#anyway this is me so excuse me while i now talk about diasomnia for three hours #but lilia being all 'kids gotta have some adventure in their lives!' is hilarious #specifically because you know silver would NEVER.#100% silver not only never snuck out but he always went to bed on time AND brushed his teeth AND flossed even when nobody made him.#lilia: aww but you should be enjoying your youth! >:c #silver: i am. i enjoy being respectful and disciplined and honoring you as my father.#lilia:#lilia: maybe i'm TOO good at raising kids #you know i was going to say none of his kids would be involved in this but i actually think malleus definitely would #he would not see it as a moral quandry though. he would just be excited to be invited along.#(the only reason he isn't there is because he was busy admiring a termite-infested beam somewhere and yuu didn't get a chance to ask him)#i mean MAYBE if lilia as his single authority figure told him no then he would have some reservations #but lilia's the one who's screaming HELL YEAH LET'S SNEAK OUT AND DEFY AUTHORITY while dabbing so moot point there #sebek would never and he would rat on everyone else. unless malleus is going in which case he's already there.#and i guess if everyone else is going silver probably would too #but he'd. y'know. feel conflicted about it.

5K notes · View notes

densewentz · 11 days

Text

a quick silly sketch based off my earlier post about the Cat King having a mistaken identity crisis when Edwin and Co. don't recognize him in his new cat form post-esther

#catwin #the cat king #edwin paine #edwin payne #dead boy detectives #dead boy detectives spoilers #my art #if you saw this post earlier no you didnt #stupid sketch just to get it out of my head lol #he's in trouble boys #I haven't decided how i want to draw Edwin yet bear with me #this is like the first time ive touched my tablet since i went numb so its a little shitty but #it feels nice to make even a little bit of art

2K notes · View notes

uncanny-tranny · 6 months

Text

It's honestly frustrating that I've seen non-Russian queer people almost bragging about how they would be illegal in Russia, labeled an extremist or terrorist. Russian queers are in danger, their government has made it clear where it stands, and it's made this effort for the better part of a decade (even longer, perhaps). This will kill people, don't mistake this for a quirky little proclamation from a government, akin to somebody saying the sky is pink. Russian queer people were already expressing their fear, and the least we can do now is express our love for them, and advocate with them.

Russian queer people, I love you. I love you all so much. I am so sorry, I cannot begin to express the grief that I feel, and I hope that you are safe. Words cannot encapsulate how I feel as a non-Russian, and I cannot hope to comprehend how it feels to actually be in this situation.

#queer #lgbt #lgbtq #ofc this has been brewing for a long time and it has been really troubling to say the very LEAST #honestly i have seen russian queers joke about the situation which feels different. honestly it's almost admirable #i just can't find it funny to see non-Russians do it simply because the threat of prosecution or death for people is too high in my mind #it feels almost voyeuristic when non-russians joke like that to me #like i've joked about the state of (us)american queer rights when it feels too bleak but i live here #i guess when people only joke about it it tells me they don't think it's a big deal or that it won't affect queer people...#...because it won't affect them as an outsider likely #it's just shitty. all around. and it's the type of thing that i'm not sure what to do #queerphobia #queerphobia tw

3K notes · View notes

phantom-shell · 8 months

Text

Vampworld Finn!! He tends to bring pillows he finds in abandoned homes back to the tank. He can't fall asleep at ALL without a pile- Thus, the pillow corner was created.

Pt.1, Next

#Gee I wonder why he has such trouble sleeping unless he's on something super soft #It couldn't possibly be because he's originally from a world where all the floors are PILLOWS #vampworld finn #Adventure time #Fionna and Cake #finn the human #finn mertens #princess bubblegum #art #artwork #digital art #my art #fanart

7K notes · View notes

shepscapades · 1 day

Text

Hermit a Day May: Day 24 — Cleo!

1K notes · View notes

thatskindarough · 2 months

Text

At the Cafe!

#art #good omens #illustration #my art #aziraphale #crowley #practice #ineffable husbands #good omens fanart #been having trouble finishing anything lately #so this is an older drawing I’ve grown to like over time

2K notes · View notes

emmster · 1 month

Text

POV you’re at a pub and three guys ask you to take a picture and you capture a Ghost on it

#zoom I’m on Ghost’s face #his expression is hilarious #Simon ghost Riley #johnny soap mactavish #sergeant soap mactavish #sergeant kyle gaz garrick #kyle garrick #gaz garrick #captain john price #john price #soap ghost gaz price #task force 141 #cod mw2 #my art #digital art #Soap is looking a little more ‘09 than ‘22 but it’s fine #John Price is stupid hard to draw I always have trouble with him #Gaz is easy to draw. like weirdly easy #and Ghost I draw all the time so he’s stupid easy to draw now

1K notes · View notes

inkskinned · 4 months

Text

you have to go to work so you can pay for your doctor, who is not taking your insurance right now, and if you say i can't afford the doctor's you are told - get a better job. it is very sad that you are unwell, yes, but maybe you should have thought about that before not having a better job.

(where is the better job? who is giving out these better jobs? you are sick, you are hurting - how the hell are you supposed to be well enough for this better job?)

but you go to the doctor because you had the nerve to be hurt or sick or whatever else. and they tell you that it is because you have anxiety. you try your best. you are a self-advocate. you've done the reading (which sometimes pisses them off worse, honestly). you say it is actually adding to my anxiety, it is effecting my quality of life. so they say that you are fat. they say that all young people have this happen to them, isn't it a medical marvel! they say that you should eat more vegetables. they say that you probably just need to lose a little more weight, and that you are faking it for attention.

(what attention could this doctor possibly give? what validation? that's their fucking job, isn't it?)

there is always a hypochondriac, right. someone always tells you about a hypochondriac. or someone who is unnecessarily aggressive during the worst days of their life. or someone looking "for a quick fix". or some idiot who wasn't educated about how to properly care for themselves who just abandons their treatment. and again, the hypochondriac, the overly-cautious hysteric. these people don't deserve to be treated like humans (right), and since you might be one of these people, you also don't get treated like a human. because those people can really fuck with the system, you now have to pay for it. and besides. you're actually probably faking it.

(more often than not, you find a 2:1 ratio of these stories. for every "hypochondriac", there are 2 people who knew something was wrong, and yet nobody could fucking find it. the story often ends with pointless suffering. the story often ends with and now it's too late, and it's going to kill me.)

you are actually just making excuses. someone else got that procedure or that diagnosis and he's fine, you should be fine too. someone else said they watched a documentary about other inspirational people with your exact same condition, maybe you should be inspirational, too. you're just too morbid. your pain and your experience is probably just not statistically concerning. it is all self-reported anyway, and you're just being a baby.

(once, while sitting down in the middle of making coffee, you had the sudden, horrible thought - i could kill myself to make the pain stop. you had to call your best friend after that. had to pet your dog. had to cry about it in the shower. you won't, but that moment - god, fuck. the pain just goes on and on.)

you know someone who went in for routine surgery and said i still feel everything. they told her to just relax. it took her kicking and screaming before they figured out she wasn't lying - the anesthetic drip hadn't been working. you know someone who went in for severe migraines who was told drink water and lose weight. you know someone who was actively bleeding out and throwing up in the ER and was told you're just having a bad period.

in the ER there are always these little posters saying things like "don't wait! get checked today!" and you think about how often you do wait. how often the days spool out. you once waited a full week before seeing the doctor for what you thought was a sprained wrist. it had actually been broken - they had to rebreak it to set it.

but you go into the doctor. the problem you're having is immediate. the person behind the counter frowns and says we're not taking your insurance. you will be paying for this out-of-pocket.

they send you home with tylenol and a little health packet about weight loss or anxiety or attention deficit. on the front it has your birthday and diagnosis. you think about crying, and the words swim. it might as well say go fuck yourself. it might as well say you're a fucking idiot. it might as well say light your money on fire and lie down in it. and the entire fucking time - the problem persists.

it's okay. it's okay, it's just another thing, you think. it's just another thing i have to learn to live with.