#Economic cycle

[zero-zoxx-international]

Der Wirtschaftskreislauf (Remake 2010), The Economic Cycle (Remake 2010), 2010 by P.R.Wind

#drawing #J.G.Wind #economic cycle #remake #gentlemen #slapstick #cake in the face #uniform #peaked cap #money #2010 #energy saving lamp #metaphysical art

[paulthepoke]

This Time is Different! It Is Way Worse! Michael Douville

Those that buy too late in the Cycle risk taking major losses as the Historic Bubble deflates.

Ecclesiastes 8:6 For there is a right time and procedure to every purpose, though a man’s misery weighs heavily upon him. Here are a couple of economic videos and updates from Michael Douville. My Timing model is a Real Estate Cycle Timing model. These cycles repeat over and over again on a fairly regular basis. This will be my 3rd or 4th cycle. The main reason why Asset Bubbles are created is…

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#commercial real estate #cycle #economic cycle #real estate #stock market

[signode-blog]

Signs of Recession

In the complex world of economics, recessions are inevitable yet challenging events that can have far-reaching consequences on individuals, businesses, and entire nations. Recognizing the signs of an impending recession is crucial for making informed decisions and mitigating potential risks. In this blog post, we will delve into the key indicators and signals that economists and policymakers…

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#Business investment #Consumer debt #Consumer spending #Economic cycle #Economic downturn #Economic health #Economic Indicators #Financial Markets #GDP growth #Housing market #Investor sentiment #Mitigating risks #Proactive measures #Recession #Recovery #Resilient future #Stock market performance #Unemployment rates #Yield curve #Yield curve inversion

[animoney-channel]

Why I think the supercycle of commodities is bullshit right now

The investment banks and other merchants of self-fulfilling prophecies started talking about a possible super-cycle of commodities back in late 2020. It was kind of fun at the time - pent-up demand and underinvestment in industries could really caused a chain reaction (although it is not clear to say so loudly that it is a defenitely supercycle).

But it's been 2 years, and they keep going on and on…. Another Goldman Sachs article came across the other day: "2023 Commodity Outlook: An Underinvested Supercycle". What? Again?

So, let's use data from the Bank of Canada. Here are only 4 types of goods, but you can already see that all the cycles are not very synchronized

Moreover, they averaged the prices of over 20 groups of commodities and drew a single graph.

Also, we will need Kondratieff waves (cycles) as the most global economic cycles associated with the emergence of new technologies, such as the loom, steam engine, machine building, and so on.

If we superimpose them on top of each other, we get the following:

That is, with the exception of 1933 (when the commodity cycle was provided, most likely, exclusively by mass preparations for the world war and the exit of America from the great depression), all other commodity supercycles began about 10-15 years after the start of the next Kondratiev wave. This is the time when there is a boom in the implementation of new technology.

According to economists, we are now at the very beginning of a new Kondratiev wave (the growth of the interest rates and high inflation confirms this), which means that we have to wait another 10 years for a real supercycle of commodity materials =)

#economy #economics #commodity #commodities #supercycle #economic cycle #investing #crude oil #brent #goldman sachs #Youtube

[certaincollections]

For this reason, let’s explore the syndication process together, from start to finish, so you can invest confidently in your first real estate syndication.

Here are the basic steps of investing in a real estate syndication:

1. Determine your investing goals

2. Find an investment opportunity that fits

3. Reserve your spot in the deal

4. Review the PPM (private placement memorandum)

5. Send in your funds

Step #1 – Determine Your Investing Goals

Once you decide you want to invest in a real estate syndication, consider both your short-term and long-term investing goals so you can be sure to find investment opportunities that best fit your personal goals.

#laurencerosecapital #investing goals #real estate syndication #investment opportunities #real estate deal #economic cycle #investment value

[compaculaaa]

How the Prime siblings got their names (from Uncle Kup!!!)

#sparkling siblings au #transformers animated #tfa #an old comic (ish) I’ve been holding off for too long #Senti being wary and vigilant of any bot who isn’t his creator #hopefully he’ll grow to be a brave soldier #right when Optimus was emerged there was an economic crisis so his creators had to get back to work immediately #but even though they’re tired form working all solar cycle #Optimus’ smile will light their darkest hour #Elita straight up rejects Kups initial name for her #the princess of cybertron demands to be named better by this peasant #tfa optimus prime #tfa sentinel prime #tfa elita one #tfa ultra magnus #alpha trion #kup

[hauntedmoors]

love how dune was like paul is following in his mother’s footsteps (achieving revenge by exploiting an entire people and subjecting the rest of the universe to unimaginable violence from grief) and chani is following in her mother’s footsteps (fighting for her people and the ecological health of her planet) and you know they’re so fucking doomed from the very beginning.

#some of the accessory details are so incredibly important to the story. the atreides have fanatical support from their military which is #later transposed onto the fremen. the atreides don’t come to arrakis with the intention to transform its ecology for the benefit of #its native people. they come to continue the cycle of resource exploitation and economic benefit albeit. they tolerate fremen because they #offer a strategic benefit. #text #dune #btw never assume any post about paul is also not about alia ^^

[thepowerisyouth]

MONEY / FINANCE STRESS CONTENT WARNING, this next line is unfortunately quite stressful about money so this was an important warning for me to add:

This is also less for the random strangers on the internet who have no reason to trust my advice but more for the 10-15 people I know personally who trust my money advice based on prior experience and Ive sent them my blog link in the last month or two

US stock market is about to tank. On a global perspective its stupidly overpriced because markets like China are hitting 5 year lows (as in we've increased our stock market over 2x since "COVID lows", but their market is even lower than it was then.

Timing is hard but it is entirely possible yesterday was the peak of the market. Might also not tank for 6 months.

Market psychology is fucking weird tho so please absolutely dont 'short' anything, which is basically the same as 'buying puts'. Michael Burry nearly bankrupted all his friends, family, and random investors by insisting on 'shorting' things based on knowledge of impending crisis.

Just sell everything. I mean literally everything. Bond etfs might go up but youd have to have eyes glued to the charts to sell in time. Gold wont do, neither will bitcoin. Their negative correlation to stocks isnt really a thing anymore.

Get every etf, stock, whatever into cash in the brokerage account, then move it out of the banks/brokerage firms and into something physically in front of you because we are, in fact, in another 'historical period of bank runs' its just not quite at the peak yet.

Not trying to increase anxiety beyond nessecary-- its just that any, single bank can immediately freeze your money-- leaving it up to the Federal Government to pay you back-- and it might possibly be the case that youd have to rely on whats called a "bank bail in" to see your savings again.

Not a fun situation to be in, even if it wont happen to most people its just safe practice to do this during a "historical period of bank runs"

----------------

This blog is basically my diary of my thoughts (suprise suprise). But Im an open book, privileged (but poor) little white boy with complex societal/generational abuse and very little home problems so lets fucking go theres a whole mormon cargo van to unpack

Definitely recommend tags Im terrible at them.

---

To those reading this, if you have ever met me in real-life or on the internet than you have taught me varying degrees of information which can be randomly retrieved by my brain at any time depending on current CPU performance. Thoughts of my loving husband have occupied my headspace probably 95% of my time since 14 so he has absolutely taught me at least 100x more than anyone else in the world.

When I say "I", oftentimes Im thinking about "me and my husband", or even sometimes "me and my friends/family", or even sometimes "me and society"--- but I am not always 100% aware of the current headspace environment and/or beliefs of the minds of those around me without feedback

---

There are currently over 8 billion individual varieties of the global human language spoken within the mind. Lets start translating them all. Misunderstood words become mean labels.

I fucking hate mean labels

"Math wiz" = racism and/or classism and/or gender shit. Fuck that shit

When a person is niched off into one part of an 8 billion population human society, it becomes impossible to not "live in a bubble". Bubbles change in size constantly even if not visibly observed. Bubbles can be different sizes depending on your current day-to-day thoughts of your own society. Bubbles must pop. Enlightenment implies life only gets better the more times ya pop and lock it

My path away from purely mathematics, logic, and scientific theory began when I met my husband, and for the first time in my life it became important to me not to be an asshole to everyone around me

Ive been told (only after I started dating my traumatized husband tho and helped him heal a lot) that I'm a natural communicator-- and all my life I found myself listening and learning to everything and everyone around me trying to understand both their and my own motivations-- then I like to garble them up and spit 'em out. My memory recall ability is wonky tho and fluctuates highly with nutrient intake-- I'll get into that later

I wish I could have a million years to read every blog on tumblr. I really do. Connecting & communating is extremely important for understanding one another but it takes time

I had an extremely unique childhood (who hasnt lol), enough so to isolate myself quite a lot through sheer dumb luck. My mom is also everyone's favorite school teacher so of course I was learning a lot from a young age. Luckily I glued myself to the first person who wanted to glue themselves to me equally & we grew exponentially closer to eternity

If its still not clear: my husband and I are bored and love chatting with people, but like most internet loving freaks my mouth don't work sometimes well but my fingies do. My ears got fluff a lot but I got eyes for LEDs like a hawk. Wish they werent LED tho

I also have a naturally short sleep cycle (i.e. extra time for this), and I really wont be offended or weirded out by someone reading through and liking 20+ or whatever of my posts at once randomly. Stories are supposed to be read in chunks, and I think of this blog as a story & also workspace for my thoughts that Id love to see which chapters everyone has read through. Also I love (and only respond positively to) positive feedback, yet also suggestions for ways to improve my "theorums". As in, good faith discussions are totally welcome on any post.

For my 50 year old parents reading my blog so lovingly in their limited evening time-- you can sort by tags to see what topics your familiar with, if you play around with the search function while on my page. Mom. Show dad how to do it

In the very, very bottom of my blog I dont even think I managed to tag shit properly-- but its the roughdraft workings of the philosophy, as well as my own logical framework for answering lifes questions. Its 2 months ago so I might not even be writing according to my own works down there anymore idk I change fast sometimes

Last thing for now here is that I was always criticized by teachers for not showing my work, and for not reviewing my tests before turning in, and I pushed back hard because nearly every time I went over and corrected a mistake-- I saw I most often got it right the first fucking time on a pure hunch. I act on impulse when I'm not meditating mostly for efficiency purposes because I believe I'm correct, but remain open to emotionally positive feedback so I can help remove all doubt.

-------

This might turn into my 'life story' post, as its already going there. Heres what I have so far in the way of my knowledge of my family before I was brought into existence, and my "earliest memories":

Family context:

I dont know jack shit. Nobody talks about it at all.

Here's my own observations Ive made using the framework and perceptive filters I was given--

My whole family is white Texans.

Ancestory is slaveowners of course, further back is a very likely direct parent-child descendent line from the most famous inbred british royalty of the 13th century i.e. King John, whose brother was the arab genociding Richard.

I would call my immediate family as upper poverty class. Its more like poverty with extra privileges cause mental health stigma was the only thing holding them back not other shit too.

As children we had a lot of very privileged opportunities because my parents made a lot of sacrifices to try and bring us back up the class ladder. Lets look into that generational trauma issue

My dads parents (born in the early 40s, dont know the year exactly. I think '43 or '44) were more upper middle class, pretty high income. Owned an insurance business that was very successful by the early 2000s at least. My grandpa is described to me as a "monster" and "violently abusive". I have a single memory of him screaming at me as a young child and I was cowering under a desk, so I really believe it. No other stories at all to provide context.

-- I gotta split this section off I realized I wrote the next thing about post-me context Ill need to move this part lower down later--

My grandpa got early onset dementia, my dad didnt notice in time, and my grandpa bankrupted his successful company and lost several million of dollars to "scammers and sexy ladies."

My dad found out around 2015-16 or so. He told me a little bit after telling me my grandparents were getting divorced. My dad managed to scrape together about $200,000 which is being sued for by the IRS actively.

(He split that money in two, and entrusted me tell him how to invest half in safe value stocks that I handpicked as well as a calculated risk allocation to bonds which we sold for 30% profit the second the market crashed. He gave the other half to a brokerage advisor. I never met the advisor but saw the results. Dont get me started on how the other dude did with that money-- we started this endeavor in January 2020.)

Personally I also dont believe that its possible to spend an entire fortune on scammers and strippers, so Id love to see his books and figure out what the hell went wrong with that asshole. I have a hunch I know something more than anyone else ("Enron", guys, we're talking about an insurance company in HOUSTON, in the 2000s) but I will never be sure without the books.

----

Back to other family--

I do not know a single thing about my grandma on my dads side. She raised me quite a lot, but yeah I literally have only heard her life described to me as "she was a housewife"

On my moms side, my Mimi (also born 1940s but slightly younger so I think 1946 or 1947) came from a divorced, upper middle class family. In 1964-65, She and her step mom both got knocked up the same year so she watched her divorced dad remarry to said step mom when she was 18-19 and getting a shotgun marriage herself, so you can imagine what that was like. The "biological" of the two moms was a very good mom and very queer from what I hear. She died when I was a baby, from lung cancer. Thats all I know. My mimi raised me quite a lot, nearly equally as much as my mom did

My mom's dad, my Papa, came from a rural farming family in East Texas. Dont know much else of anything, but he and his siblings were named "Billy, Bobby, and Betty". As in, they are what everyone likes to call "hicks"

--

Moving onto my direct parents now. I know a little more about them of course, but since we're getting closer in age to the present-- I think itll be easier to describe my understanding as common stereotypes. If its unclear what I mean definitely feel free to ask, but I'll probably say "I dont really know"

Not much else is relevant other than knowing that my moms family was the mormon one, but that as soon as my dad was love-bombed by the church he joined to. Mormons were also different in the 90s I'm told.

My dad struggled with being one of the "crazy schizos" of the 90s. As in, very traumatized, upset, and gaslit by the government and his parents. Must have done a damn good job dealing with it by the time he was in his late 20s and I popped out cause he was never a "bad dad" to me at all. Definitely yelled and was more angry at times, but less than any other friends parents Ive ever met, and from what I remember he came into my room at night and apologized to me literally every single time within like 5-10 minutes. I know pretty much nothing about him pre-me. He was a tradesman my whole life and specialized in remodeling kitchens & bathrooms (the 'dirty work of construction'). All his initial clientele were the rich people my grandma lived near and was friends with.

My mom would have been extremely queer-presenting and posting on tumblr if born in the year 2000, but was born in early 70s, and was a raegan teen in high-school in Texas during the satanic panic-- she presents completely cis, straight, but has body dysmorphia issues. Thats about you need to know about those issues I'm sure my tumblr folks can assume the rest and be perfectly correct. Cause thats about all I know too and I'm assuming the rest about my own mother

--- Earliest memories

I think a lot of people face doubt about their own earliest memories, maybe hearing the way I connect the images of these events in my head to my emotions I felt will help others do the same.

----

Two disclosers about me & my current healthcare discoveries before moving on

1) My only "major" childhood trauma is loneliness. I have a partner now (started dating early high school, nearing 10 years together now) who was just as lonely and we are glued to each others side constantly, and have made our life work great that way. So don't feel too bad reading this, I'm only able to write it down because Ive healed that trauma and can dig this stuff up with no issues to validate the emotions I felt even as a child

1) I believe I have a genetic trait that is only just getting discovered. There are something like 6 discovered mutations that hold this similar trait so far, and its just basically chronic insomia.

It being a genetic trait tracks with how my mom describes me as never settling into a normal sleep pattern at 6 months old, having absurd amounts of nightmares and death anxiety keeping me up at night as a child, and I still dont sleep at any given time. I average 2 hours less sleep than my husband, who averages 7-8 now that he isnt actively being abused at home.

Going to get sequenced but even if negative I'd probably just be a 7th mutation, as they only found the other 6 genes via case study.

The scientists whove discovered it call it "Familial Natural Short Sleeper", if you desire to look it up. They describe the trait like its the best possible thing in the world. Well... terminally chronic insomia is not the best thing in THIS world thats for sure.

---------

My "earliest memories"

These arent ranked by time accurately of course. Took enough effort digging through my brain to turn them up, not like Ive got a 2003 calendar stuffed in here as well.

I did do my best to sort by first memory but it also might be sorted by the order at which I recovered the memories as being one of my "earliest" when I was a child and asked such things

1. Pure emptiness. I can only describe it as dissociation. I can remember nothing about the environment around me, except feeling suddenly sucked out of it, seeing only darkness, feeling almost a ringing in my ears and the deepest dread possible. This same feeling followed me in life for a little while, but started to take more visual shape when I was an adolescent, until at some point I would see myself sitting in a chair alone in a room that is infinitely sized but that slowly gets darker the further out you go. I cant remember what exact "real-world" event caused this feeling to ever happen each time it did. I just can remember having it happen occasionally when I was awake and doing things. Definitely dissociation. (If you are willing to believe me further I think its just probably "lights out" and being scared of that)

1. Riding a mattress down the stairs. I kind of remember two images, one is the tunnel vision of going high speed down the stairs and the other would be from looking back up at the stairs when I was done going down. Totally fun, probably my first rollar coaster ride. I might remember my siblings laughing too but it wouldnt be because I can remember the actual laughing-- but I can remember feeling the joy of being in a group of people laughing. At the time, my parents were selling the house so thats why I also remember it being a completely empty carpeted room that we were riding down into

2. My brother smashing his head repeatedly into the refrigerator for 'fun' and someone saying "wow he has a hard head" or something along those lines. I was learning english I cant remember exactly what they said but that was definitely the meaning I took from their words. I think this memory is strong, because I was truly very curious as to why my brother was just running at full speed, head down, and headbutting a hard surface. The words someone said after that must have been one of my first 'answers'

3. Watching my siblings play in rare Houston snow. Not much remembering there actually. Probably just thought it was mezmorizing to watch as I just really remember a picture and feeling peace

4. Will add more later.

#mental health #trauma #early memories #life story #family #generational trauma #wealth disparity #memory #self healing #child psychology #diary #math #classism #privilege #cycle of abuse #behavioral economics #psychology #philosophy

[bitchesgetriches]

Booms, Busts, Bubbles, and Beanie Babies: How Economic Cycles Work

If you liked this article, join our Patreon!

#booms and busts #bubbles #economic cycles #economics #finance 101 #investing

[bandofchimeras]

more unsolicited advice for poor girls & queer & trans kids: - do NOT MARRY THE UPPER CLASS GUY FOR STABILITY and confuse it for love. - do NOT have his children without a PRENUP & a childcare & custody agreement set up in advance. - you ARE marrying your in-laws. if they look down on you and see you as unworthy of their son, it WILL impact you and any children you have. - re kids: you are making an economic decision. raising children is a full-time job. ensure you are being adequately compensated. - if you can help it, NEVER mask your queerness for this kind of "getting stable" relationship - it will just stunt you late into your midlife and give you a lotta baggage to work through. -usually rich/upper class guys have emotional problems they will feel it is part of your agreement to tolerate & accommodate. be aware, pay attention to red flags or warnings from friends as you are entering an economically dependent position.

If it seems too good to be true, it probably is!

_______________________________________________ Stay safe, and remember if you find yourself being financially, emotionally, or physically abused, there is help out there! Domestic Violence Hotline for US: 800-799-7233 An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Stay smart, remember your worth, stay connected to a community of equals...and FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE is key!

#unsolicited advice #seriously though i have seen at least 5-6 instances of this story w my middle aged queer women & non-binary friends #horrible split custody arrangements #and abuse from in laws #if you choose to be a single parent at least you have the freedom to decide who helps care for your kids #this is such a big thing i can't get it out of my head #domestic violence #economic dependence #feminism #empowerment #poverty #cycle breakers

[cb-reblog]

Small artist showcase: Roach Farmer

This is an ORIGINAL SONG by Roach Farmer.

Lyrics:

Nobody on this precious planet of mine

is actually excited

for Avatar 2

and if anyone tries to tell you otherwise

they're lying to your face

and they're trying to deceive you

they want you dead

they want you gone

don't let them poison you

don't let them in your head

they have an interest in your downfall

because

they're not human

they want your soul

stay vigilant

they've got their hands inside your pockets

and a pistol to your skull

Nobody on this precious planet of mine

is actually excited for Avatar 2

and if anyone tries to tell you otherwise

they're lying to your face

and they're plotting to destroy you

#art #small artist support #small artist #folk punk #folk music #folk punk music #punk music #music #good music #original music #music recs #playlist #favorite songs #song of the day #song #songs #anti-capitalism #anti capitalism #capitalism #economics #late stage capitalism #long term debt cycle #business cycles #business cycle #short term debt cycle #Youtube

[paulthepoke]

No Recession Narrative is full of Baloney! Who do you believe? Michael Douville

Now, the Government and Wall Street would like you to believe we are heading toward a soft landing; that continues to be the narrative.

John 18:38 Pilate says to Him, “What is truth?” And having said this, he went out again to the Jews and says to them, “I find no guilt in Him. Who is most concerned about YOU? Do you trust the Federal Government to take care of YOU? What you decide and what you start to realize, is going to make a huge impact on the way you survive in the Economy in the next 18-24 months. Now, the Government…

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#assets under management #AUM #bankruptcy #cash #Chairman Jerome Powell #contraction #credit #credit cards #Debt #economic cycle #economy #Federal Reserve #government #interest rates #manufacturing #Paul Volcker #real estate #recession #soft landing #Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen #Wall Street

[f1ghtsoftly]

there is going to be another world war maybe not this year but in the next decade.

#I think North Americans are going to be fine though? The us will emerge perhaps as just a regular country #which I think will be really good for us #our economic relationship with china is going to ensure that The Really Bad Shit can’t reach us #but it will signal the ascendancy of the former third world #and when all this happens I will complete my life cycle #and fully fuck off to vermont to restore a mansion and make it a working farm and family compound

[shippingcannons]

are not good at recognising fallacies or are you not good at not using them? i might have advice for both situations if you want c:

I'm not good at either. I am very prone to getting angry when I argue and that makes me incapable of debating. Also I'm not interested in economics or politics which makes me EXTREMELY bad at debating since those are probably the most debated topics out there.

#part of the reason im not interested in economics and politics is because theyre both so subjective and i hate it when theres not even #a facade of facts #i hate it and thats why im not interested in it and then im bad a debating it and then i hate it more #the cycle of crying or something like that #look ma i got an ask #yuli says

[certaincollections]

Real estate is difficult. Real estate is not a get-rich-quick business. There’s nothing in this book that is going to teach you anything about getting rich quickly. This book is about teaching you how to build a business. What will the product of this business be? Real Estate. Keep in mind that real estate is simply a product of a business. If you don’t understand the business that surrounds the product, you’ll fail at the product and at the business.

#realestateraw #real estate portfolio #real estate #financial freedom #legecy #generational wealth #real estate business #economic market cycle #buyer #seller

[gaychaosdemon]

Updated commission info! i worked on some great stuff in the last few months so I had to include that work in this. To commission me you can either dm me or use the email address in the first slide.

As someone (all of you?) know I'm struggling financially, trying to make art my full time career and create a stable income that could allow me to move out of my parents' house to start transitioning. If you like my art, please consider purchasing a commission or even supporting me on Patreon if that's more your thing. If you can't, even a reblog means so much! Thank you ❤️

#artists on tumblr #financial help #commissions open #financial support #economic support #illustrator #illustration #art #queer artist #gay artist #trans artist #trans gofundme #ofmd #our flag means death #our flag means gay #fanart #pynch #trc #the raven cycle #blackbeard #gentlebeard #blackbonnet