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reasonsforhope · 6 months

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Do you have any advice for dealing with election anxiety?

I think/hope so!

First, a couple caveats:

I'm from the US, so US perspective, and about US 2024 elections

I know more about politics/follow them more than like, at least 85% of US Americans? But I am not an expert.

Environment/climate news and climate hope are science-based and can be measured/predicted empirically wayyyyy more than politics can, because People

I'm not getting into the trenches around Democrats vs. the Left vs. Liberals vs. Progressives. In this post, we're all in one big venn diagram of mostly interchangeable terms

So, first off, maybe my biggest piece of advice is this: The antidote to anxiety is action.

Find something you can do to help - anything. Anxiety is like fear - it's part of your brain's alarm system. It's part of your brain's mechanism for telling you that you need to do something

So if you listen to that alarm and do something, your brain won't feel the same need to desperately escalate the alarm system

You can look up and sign up for actions, protests, petitions, letter-writing campaigns, phone banking, canvassing, and more for candidates near you at Mobilize.us (no Repubs on here I promise). They also work with Swing Left a lot - a group that helps voters look up and focus on helping the nearest race that is actually competitive (because most of them aren't!)

Again, that's Mobilize.us and Swing Left as two of the best places to find out how and where to help, and sign up to do so

Other than that, I don't have advice specifically so much as I have "some useful and more hopeful ways to think about the coming US election" and to a lesser extent democracy in general

1. The media is going to underreport how well the Left and/or Democrats are doing, basically no matter what.

So, although we can't get cocky about it, this is something absolutely worth remembering when you see just about any polling or predictions about the 2024 elections.

Here's why:

Poling is weird and often inaccurate and skews in a lot of ways and is inherently biased, and it's less accurate the further you are from an election. Also, the electoral college is a huge complication here

This skewing is built into both the interpretation of the poll and the design of the poll itself - how many people do they sample? Demographic spread? Polls try to go for "likely voters," but how well can you predict that, especially as voting rates for young people and marginalized groups are rising, often dramatically?

Right now, those biases are all skewing most to all polls and predictions to the right. Including from basically all pollsters, as well as left-wing media and news outlets.

Now, THAT'S NOT INHERENTLY A BAD THING. It's not because they don't want the Left to win. It's because in 2016, basically all mainstream media, including left-leaning media, said that there was a very low chance Trump was going to win. They said that Hillary Clinton had it in the bag. So they're all correcting for the huge inaccuracy in the 2016 (and 2020 and 2022 tbh) elections

Not only were they catastrophically and humiliatingly wrong about that, they then had to deal with the fact that that very reporting was part of why Clinton lost in 2016 - voters heard she was probably going to win, so they felt safe staying home instead of voting

And then the 2020 election polls were also super wrong, mostly in the other direction

Polling as a field is undergoing a massive shakeup around this, trying to figure out how to not fuck up that badly again, but they haven't figured it out yet, so right now they're skewing things to compensate

That's for the sake of both their own credibility and, you know, the part where just about no one in either left-wing or mainstream media or mainstream polling orgs wants Trump to win

So they're going to underreport Democratic chances on purpose to a) compensate for the bias skewing things toward Democrats in their models, and b) to make sure that they don't accidentally help Trump win again

Sources: x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x

Reasons the Republicans are in more trouble than a lot of people think

Democrats are largely closing ranks hard around Biden, because no matter what they think of Biden, they know a Repub victory would be a thousand times worse

Republicans, however, are absolutely NOT unifying around a candidate. And they're also the ones who go around saying a ton of awful and offensive and wildly untrue things about their opponents. Meaning that the Republican primary is about to get fucking messy, and probably all of their candidates will be tarred in the process

So, basically, the Republican candidates are all going to be busy smearing the fuck out of each other - while Biden mostly doesn't have to deal with that level of negative campaigning against him for months and months

As studies show, in politics, "a negative frame is much more persistent, or “stickier,” than a positive one. If you come at an issue negatively, but are later reminded of the policy's positive aspects, you will still think it's a bust."

Also, Biden is gonna get basically all presidential-race left-wing big-name donor money, while the Right will have that money split a bunch of ways and blow through it hard on infighting, creating a probable funding gap

Trump's campaign contributions are all going to pay his legal fees. Like, to the extent that last month, his main PAC had just $4 million in cash on hand - because they siphoned over $101 million to pay his legal fees (muahahaha)

Sources: x, x, x, x, x, x, x

Other hopeful things to consider

Yes, Trump's indictments and trials are, unfortunately, boosting his numbers among his supporters. However, that's only with the hard right wing - and you can't win a general election with just the far right. He needs to appeal to independent voters and moderate Repubs - and every indictment and trial hurts his chances with them. x, x

In 2022, literally everyone was predicting a "red tsunami." And they were wrong: it never happened. Instead, Democrats picked up a seat in the senate, lost a third or less of the seats in the House that they were expected to, and won a number of statewide races. x, x, x, x, x

DeSantis's decision to go to war with Disney stands to do him a lot of fucking hard. Disney isn't just powerful in general - it's an unbelievably powerful force and employer in DeSantis's home state of Florida. Disney has already pulled a $1 billion project from Florida due to the feud, is responsible for "half" of FL's tourism industry, and and is branding DeSantis as "anti-corporation" and "anti-business" - dangerous charges in the right wing. x, x, x, x, x, x

Abortion is an issue that gets voters to the polls. This is an issue on which politicians are wildly out of step with voters: Numbers change depending on how you break it down, but generally 60% to 70% of Americans think abortion should be legal - which is, in election terms, is a landslide. For years, that momentum has been with Republicans. Well, now it's with us, and so far pro-choice candidates and ballot propositions have done way better than expected. To quote Vox, in 2022, "abortion rights won in all six states with abortion ballot measures, including in red states like Kentucky and Montana that otherwise elected Republican lawmakers." x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x, x

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nodirectionhome-ao3 · 9 months

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The Upcoming Mayoral Election

Written for @thegobletofweasleys's Jily Week! Day 6: Your Field AU 497 words

“I’ll tell you what, Barbara,” James spoke somberly into the telephone, winding his hand through the cord as he leaned back to prop his feet up on the table. “This Martin bloke sounds like a right bloody git to me. How long’s he been doing this?”

“Three months, he says,” Barbara Tracey’s voice crackled in his ear. “He met her at work — his secretary, you know.”

James rolled his eyes. “How original of him.”

Barbara laughed heartily at that. “Oh, Martin’s never been concerned about being a cliché, that’s for sure. You should’ve heard him, whining like a little schoolboy about how he's in love with her…”

“Wanker.”

“Don’t I know it,” Barbara sighed. “But we’ve been married for thirty years, what can you do…”

“You can divorce his sorry arse,” James said emphatically. “That’s what you can do. If he doesn’t appreciate you, he doesn’t deserve you, Barbara. In fact—”

“Potter!”

James jumped, twisting in his chair. Evans was standing right behind him, an exasperated look on her face as she stared at him.

“Just a minute, Barbara,” he said into the phone. “My field director wants a word with me.” He lowered the phone, smiling as he moved to cover the receiver. “Problem, Evans?”

“What are you doing?” she demanded.

James shrugged, gesturing to the phone in his hand. “Well, her husband’s cheating on her, you see. With his bloody secretary, no less. I was just—”

Evans shook her head. “How do you even—” she trailed off, looking incredulous. “Just stick to the script, will you? We’ve only gone through a quarter of the list. This is a phone-bank, not your own private relationship helpline.”

James grinned. He loved it when Evans got angry with him. He couldn't get enough of the little crease that appeared on her forehead when she was flustered — which seemed to be all the time now, in the heat of get-out-the-vote season. Her eyes had a burning look about them, piercing into him like she could see straight through to his soul. And as he stared up at her, her cheeks began to flush just a little bit. She tilted her head up proudly, authoritatively, red hair tumbling down her shoulders and spilling in dazzling waves over the soft blue of her wrinkled Vance for Mayor t-shirt.

"Are you even listening to me, Potter?"

James blinked, the fog clearing in his mind. "Right, yeah," he said, "Stick to the script...you’ve got it, boss."

He turned away, raising the phone to his ear again. “Now, Barbara—” He paused, dragging his abandoned clipboard closer to him. He trailed his finger down the script, ignoring all the introductory rubbish at the beginning. “While your husband was sleeping with his secretary, did you make a plan to vote in this upcoming mayoral election?”

Evans made a strangled sound, something that sounded almost like a laugh, but before James could get a good look at her face — she was turning and walking quickly away.

#jily week 2023 #day 6 #your field au #political campaign #muggle au #jily #takes place in simpler times without cell phones or ngpvan or autodialers

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newyorkthegoldenage · 6 months

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A grinning Dwight Eisenhower hears members of National Arts and Sports Committee for the Eisenhower-Nixon Republican ticket sing an "I Like Ike" song for him at the Waldorf Astoria before the general appeared at the annual Alfred E. Smith Memorial Dinner, October 16, 1952.

From left to right back of piano, are: Gene Tunney; Eddie Eagan, Robert Montgomery, Happy Felton (partially hidden), Gen. Eisenhower, Dorothy Fields, Bob Christenberry (partially hidden), Bill Gaxton, and New Hampshire Gov. Sherman Adams. Seated at the piano are Irving Berlin and Helen Hayes.

Photo: Matty Zimmerman for the AP

#vintage New York #1950s #Matty Zimmerman #Dwight Eisenhower #Presidential campaign #1952 presidential campaign #1952 election #political campaign #October 16 #16 October #celebrities supporting candidates #Oct. 16 #16 Oct.

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rizumuj · 1 year

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Remember when Cartoon Network made political campaign bumpers for different cartoon characters during the 2000 elections?

Happy U.S. Election Day, Everyone!! 🗳️

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cosmicsponge2004 · 5 months

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LISTEN...

For any US Viewers here, we all know Joe Biden hasn't been a good president at all. With both his contributions to Isreal's Terrorism in Palestine along with his incompetence when it comes to doing ANY for the United States of America

We also know the republican party is just as evil as last time. With the options there being either Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis. You can just search them here or on any news site to see why they would be even worse.

HOWEVER, We might not have to settle for Biden.

Now, I am under 18. So I am not allowed to vote. The US Government says my opinion dosen't matter. However, I can influence YOU! The 18+ Year Old US Citizens who DO matter in the eyes of the law

I found an independent candidate from a comment section on a tumblr post here (I forgot which one) and he seems great

He's very ambitious (I don't see him reaching most of his goals but surely he could get SOME change done)

Enter: Cornell West

More information on his website (more of his campaign's site but I think he runs it...?)

What does he plan to do? Here's a highlight reel of my favorites. Click "keep reading"

(the full list is on the site)

Abolish poverty

Abolish homelessness (big statements right there, dude)

Wealth tax on all billionaire holdings and transactions

National $27 minimum wage with special considerations for specific geographies where $27/hour would not be a family-sustaining wage

Mandatory minimum of six months of fully paid parental leave

National free pre-K childcare

Habeas Corpus Healthcare, free healthcare for any and all residents of the United States

Codify abortion rights as a Constitutional mandate (THIS ONE!!! THIS ONE RIGHT HERE!!!!)

Remove Transgender exclusions/limitations from all healthcare policies

Nationalize the healthcare industry, including the pharmaceutical industry

End medical apartheid and protect/increase rights for people with disabilities

End the war on drugs and associated collateral damage on families and communities (Reagan would shit his pants)

End mass incarceration and codify voting rights for all incarcerated people and immediately reinstate voting rights for all returning citizens

Address the disproportionate mortality rate for Black pregnancies

Establish a Land Back Commission to explore and address brutal land theft from, attempted genocide of, and broken treaties with Indigenous peoples

Protect free speech, enforce whistleblower protections, and stop the prosecution of those who expose government corruption

Shut down Cop City and plans for similar facilities across the nation

Redistribute police funding to unarmed community-led forces

Eliminate crowded prison facilities by developing alternatives to incarceration

Prisoner Bill of Rights that includes a right to humane treatment and humane living conditions for all correctional facilities

Investigate and end sentencing discrepancies based on race, ethnicity, and class

Ban the death penalty, life without the possibility of parole, three-strikes laws, mandatory minimums, and sentence enhancement politics

Restore voting rights for people with criminal records, including those who are currently incarcerated

Confiscate all military equipment from civilian police forces

Free tuition for all state and community colleges

Dismantle the school-to-prison pipeline by removing police and so-called School Resource Officers from all public schools

Cancel all student loan debt

End the unwarranted, unnecessary, and dangerous assaults on transgender people

Gender-affirming standards of care for trans people in public life and institutions

Codify an Equal Rights Amendment for LGBTQIA+ U.S. residents

National ban on any and all so-called "Don’t Say Gay" laws and all other anti-LGBTQIA+ laws

End crimes against humanity for migrants and their families - no separation of families, no children in cages

Slash the bloated U.S. military budget

Expeditious and responsible closure of global U.S. military bases - AFRICOM, etc.

Cease military funding to the State of Israel

End Israeli apartheid of Palestinian people and press the UN to establish a program for Palestinian dignity and liberation

Cease all military support to nations committing war crimes

(16-24 feel SUPER IMPORTANT to me as a Texan)

If he ain't all talk, I can see this going decently! Have a little hope. Vote for this guy. Or don't, I'm not your dead mom. But I am a concerned US Citizen with a tiny bit of hope. Emphasis on tiny

We can do it!!!

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kitkat-twopartysystem · 3 months

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#candyland #kit kat two party system #parody #parody political campaign #political campaign

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dreaminginthedeepsouth · 1 month

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youtube

Taylor Swift - Only The Young - 2020 Presidential Election Campaign Music Video

It keeps me awake The look on your face The moment you heard the news You're screaming inside And frozen in time You did all that you could do The game was rigged, the ref got tricked The wrong ones think they're right You were outnumbered, this time

But only the young Only the young Only the young Only the young can run Can run, so run And run, and run

So every day now You brace for the sound You've only heard on TV You go to class, scared Wondering where the best hiding spot would be And the big bad man and his big bad clan Their hands are stained with red Oh, how quickly, they forget

They aren't gonna help us Too busy helping themselves They aren't gonna change this We gotta do it ourselves They think that it's over But it's just begun

Only one thing can save us Only the young (only the young) Only the young (only the young) Only the young (only the young) Only the young

Only the young (only the young) Only the young (only the young) Only the young (only the young) Only the young Only the young (only the young) (Don't say you're too tired to fight It's just a matter of time Up there's the finish line) Only the young Can run

Don't say you're too tired to fight It's just a matter of time (can run) Up there's the finish line So run, and run, and run Don't say you're too tired to fight It's just a matter of time (so run) Up there's the finish line And run, and run, and run

Only the young Only the young Only the young

#Only the Young #Taylor Swift #political campaign #election 2024 #voter suppression #vote #Youtube

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dontmeantobepoliticalbut · 1 year

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If Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) decides to run for reelection next year, she’ll do so without the help of the big-name Democratic ad makers and pollsters who helped her win her Senate seat in 2018, and without access to the voter database maintained by the Democratic Party.

NGP VAN, which manages Democratic voter data, is set to cut off Sinema’s access at the end of January, according to a source with direct knowledge of the situation. The ad makers who worked with her in 2018, Dixon/Davis Media Group, have split with her campaign. Two other Democratic sources said polling firm Impact Research made the same decision.

Both Dixon/Davis and Impact have the type of pedigree you would expect for firms that work with Senators in key races. Dixon/Davis worked on President Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign, while Impact Research does polling for President Joe Biden. Both firms made the decision before Sinema’s recent party switch.

A spokesperson for Sinema did not respond to an email seeking comment. A spokesperson for Bonterra Tech, the parent company of NGP VAN, declined to comment.

The decisions make Sinema’s road to reelection even steeper and more complicated. Polls of Arizona’s electorate show that her efforts to ingratiate herself with Republicans have mostly backfired electorally, alienating Democrats en masse without building up an equivalent base of independent or GOP voters. Two Democratic congressmen from the state, Reps. Ruben Gallego and Greg Stanton, are both looking at runs for the party’s nomination, and a three-way battle with a Republican candidate seems likely.

Sinema does not lack selling points: While her approach doomed huge segments of Biden’s agenda, including many of his proposed tax hikes on the wealthy and corporations, she also has played major roles in crafting popular bipartisan deals on same-sex marriage, gun control and infrastructure funding. Successfully selling those accomplishments to an electorate is where pollsters and ad makers come in.

It’s unclear where Sinema might turn to run a reelection campaign. She and her staff have avoided any talk of reelection, saying she has not yet made a decision about a 2024 run. But any Democrat who works with her is likely to face fierce pushback from progressives who argue Sinema’s actions have imperiled a key Senate seat.

“Sinema abandoned the Democratic Party because she knew she couldn’t win a primary after spending years obstructing popular reforms and alienating her own voters,” said Sacha Haworth, who served as communications director at the start of Sinema’s 2018 campaign and now works for a group aiming to defeat her. “She chose to forfeit the Democratic Party infrastructure, so it’s only right that no Democratic staffer, consultant or vendor should work with her.”

Losing access to the Democratic Party’s voter data is also likely to be a headache for Sinema, since it will make it more difficult to target voters for digital advertising, mailers and door-knocking.

Other Democrats who work with Sinema privately signaled to HuffPost they are waiting for signals from top national Democratic leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Biden, about how to handle the newly independent Senator.

Many D.C. Democrats would prefer to find a way to back Sinema for reelection — from a legislative perspective, it would make their lives far easier if they could rely on her to back Biden’s judicial selections and in forthcoming fights over funding and the debt limit — but fear she could be running third in a three-way battle, which would make it difficult to convince either Stanton or Gallego to stay out of the race.

#us politics #news #2022 #huffington post #sen. kyrsten sinema #arizona #independents #Dixon/Davis Media Group #NGP VAN #Impact Research #Bonterra Tech #polling #ads #political campaign #Sacha Haworth #rep. ruben gallego #rep. Greg Stanton

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troythecatfish · 6 months

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helladirections · 8 months

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expecting to be slow to read this weekend, fyi

#yo #pignic: a picnic for guinea pigs and their people #college football #even though the team notoriously sucks #political campaign #but this time i like the candidate and he likes me and trusts me and i feel like im actually good at my job #mentoring teens #jewish democrats #family #and taking care of my friends cat #i havent been this busy in so long

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bumblebeeappletree · 2 years

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youtube

Falling leaves, pumpkin spice, and… events that could make or break political campaigns? Here’s the history of the ‘October surprise’ in U.S. politics.

For more U.S. news & politics, subscribe to @NowThisNews.

#politics #trump #biden #News #NowThis

#now this news #now this #solarpunk #USA #politics #october surprise #october #donald trump #joe biden #campaign #political campaign #Youtube

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atleastitsnotherpes · 1 year

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I need this as a political campaign poster. I’m willing to pay money for it.

#batman #harvey dent #two face #political campaign #art #posters

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marketinghubblog · 25 days

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Navigating Political Campaigns💡: Social Media Marketing Tactics

Leverage targeted ads, influencer partnerships, and engaging content to reach voters effectively. Social media service enhances campaign visibility, engagement, and outreach strategies.📣

Contact No.: +91-9871034010 Mail id: [email protected]

#election2024 #ppc advertising #electioncampaign #social media strategy #Political Ca #political campaign

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politicaledge · 5 months

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https://www.politicaledge.in/blog/lessons-from-successful-political-campaigns-case-studies-and-winning-strategies/

#political campaign

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kitkat-twopartysystem · 3 months

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#candyland #kit Kat two party system #parody #political campaign #let’s take down king candy!#poster #parody political campaign

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nathanarcher · 6 months

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Archer, Nathan. “DeSantis Campaign Hits New Lows.” Tallahassee Democrat, June 15, 2023. https://on.tdo.com/2nUeq7o.

#Florida #ron desantis #political campaign #editorial cartoon #cartoon

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